AngraMainyu

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.607k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.504	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
98.503	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
96.776	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
96.317	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
96.225	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
94.647	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
94.173	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
93.199	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
92.313	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
92.024	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
91.138	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
90.929	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
90.519	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
89.252	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
88.842	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
87.314	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
87.241	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
85.331	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
85.122	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
84.746	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
84.743	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
82.914	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
82.597	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
82.493	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
81.587	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
80.752	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
80.259	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
79.595	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
79.460	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
79.062	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
78.658	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
78.658	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
77.667	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
77.651	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
75.534	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
75.534	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
75.534	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
75.533	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
75.533	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
75.533	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
75.533	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
75.533	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
73.834	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
73.045	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
71.025	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
70.978	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
69.839	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
69.403	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
64.980	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
62.965	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
62.184	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
59.599	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
59.579	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
59.531	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
59.162	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
57.747	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
57.171	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
56.651	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
56.326	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
56.326	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
56.326	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
56.325	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
56.325	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
55.822	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
52.391	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
51.030	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
50.881	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
49.222	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
48.887	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.534	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
47.059	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
46.017	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
44.795	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
38.653	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
34.944	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
32.345	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
27.968	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
27.684	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
27.366	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
26.139	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
24.360	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
23.872	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
23.030	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
22.804	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
20.616	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
15.411	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
14.433	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
12.584	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
11.870	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
10.661	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
7.908	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
7.710	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
7.505	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
7.354	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
6.746	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
6.267	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
5.997	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
5.717	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
5.681	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
5.585	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
4.664	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
4.517	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
4.230	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
3.902	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
3.720	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
3.562	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
3.508	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
3.493	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
3.328	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
2.834	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
2.535	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
2.003	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
1.993	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
1.761	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
1.600	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
1.532	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
1.327	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
1.171	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
1.013	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
0.944	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
0.910	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
0.710	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
0.644	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
0.240	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
0.182	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
0.008	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-0.550	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-5.651	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-23.795	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-36.532	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-38.114	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-64.756	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-108.831	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary