datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9.212k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
165.945	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2022-12-08)	Continuous
121.619	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16)	Continuous
119.449	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022?	Continuous
116.121	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30)	Continuous
114.353	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?	Continuous
105.345	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16)	Continuous
104.314	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?	Continuous
100.199	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
99.965	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
98.029	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
98.025	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
97.683	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
96.900	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
96.563	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
94.368	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
93.608	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
93.090	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
92.836	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
92.506	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
92.129	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
91.788	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
91.754	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
89.762	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
89.502	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
87.445	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
87.344	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
86.573	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
85.959	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
85.558	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
85.415	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
85.159	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
85.005	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
84.365	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
84.365	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
84.289	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
83.810	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
83.240	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
82.897	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
82.016	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
80.650	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
80.001	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
78.096	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
77.847	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
77.340	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
76.010	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022)	Continuous
75.089	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
75.015	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
74.625	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
73.471	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
71.484	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
70.840	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
70.021	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
69.275	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
68.533	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
67.602	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
67.602	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
67.223	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
66.877	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
66.801	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
66.368	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
66.169	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
65.360	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
65.266	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30)	Continuous
63.728	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
61.010	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
60.719	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
59.644	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
59.253	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
58.319	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
58.056	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
57.871	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
57.801	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.842	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
55.851	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
55.091	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
54.745	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
54.534	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
52.079	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
51.730	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
51.580	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
51.451	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
51.320	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
50.661	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
50.285	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
48.906	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
48.872	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.640	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
48.392	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
48.311	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
47.980	Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best)	Binary
47.782	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
47.342	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
46.987	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
46.881	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
46.809	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
46.732	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
46.022	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
45.966	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
45.895	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
44.862	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
44.537	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
44.471	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
44.173	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
43.839	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
43.589	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
43.290	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
42.857	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
42.652	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
42.504	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
42.335	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
42.120	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
42.098	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
41.908	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
41.148	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
40.821	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
40.021	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
39.791	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
39.260	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
39.259	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
39.254	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
39.254	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
38.596	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
38.456	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
38.229	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
38.037	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
35.975	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
35.614	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
35.188	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
35.077	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
34.268	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
33.340	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
33.340	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
33.340	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
33.340	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
33.340	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
33.340	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
33.340	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
33.340	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
33.261	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
33.004	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
32.169	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
32.051	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
32.015	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
31.799	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
31.451	Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022?	Binary
31.409	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
31.123	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
30.936	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
30.873	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
30.315	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
29.821	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
29.526	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
29.375	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
29.203	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
29.087	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
27.951	What will the price of ETH be on Dec 2, 2022 at noon EST?	Continuous
27.697	How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Wednesday, November 23rd (the day before Thanksgiving), as reported by FlightAware?	Continuous
27.191	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
27.113	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
27.110	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
27.084	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
26.289	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
26.060	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16)	Continuous
26.026	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
25.776	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
24.534	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
24.125	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
23.965	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
23.065	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
23.043	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
23.005	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
22.947	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
22.895	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
22.875	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
22.441	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
22.155	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
22.080	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
22.056	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
21.527	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
21.445	What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states, in billions of cubic feet, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on December 29th?	Continuous
21.235	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
20.935	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
20.659	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
20.648	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
20.318	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
19.879	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
19.619	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
18.693	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
18.564	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
18.518	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
18.508	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
18.302	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
16.894	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
16.617	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
16.197	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
15.795	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
15.652	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
15.585	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
15.265	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
15.114	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
15.080	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
15.079	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
14.275	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
14.252	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
13.533	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
13.451	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
13.398	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
12.785	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
12.660	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
12.617	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
12.436	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
12.427	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
12.362	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
12.143	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
12.110	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
11.901	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
11.901	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
11.775	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
11.659	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
11.431	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
11.373	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
11.284	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
10.975	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
10.886	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
10.774	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
10.749	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
10.725	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
10.521	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
10.521	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
10.448	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
10.126	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
10.047	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
9.712	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
9.655	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
9.497	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
9.497	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
9.355	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
9.202	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
9.191	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
9.148	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
9.119	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
9.119	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
9.118	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
9.075	[Short Fuse] What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for stepping down as head of Twitter?	Continuous
8.976	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
8.960	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
8.958	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
8.923	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
8.868	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
8.633	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
8.350	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
8.143	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
8.131	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
7.854	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
7.158	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
7.072	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
7.064	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
6.538	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
5.918	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
5.621	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
5.428	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
4.863	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
4.395	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
4.104	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
4.031	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
4.020	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
3.662	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
3.551	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
3.126	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
3.005	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
2.972	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
2.830	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
2.764	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
2.747	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
2.208	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
1.796	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
1.755	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
1.615	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
1.575	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
1.398	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
1.310	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
1.096	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.858	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
0.782	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
0.497	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
0.472	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
0.345	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
-	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
-	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
-	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
-	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-0.086	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-0.781	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
-0.903	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30)	Continuous
-1.441	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-2.598	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-3.172	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-5.186	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-5.922	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
-6.641	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-6.670	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-7.025	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
-8.045	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-8.388	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
-8.971	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-9.227	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
-9.924	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-10.942	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-11.655	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
-12.631	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-13.657	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-14.120	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-15.427	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-16.891	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16)	Continuous
-19.258	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
-20.466	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-20.466	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-20.466	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-20.466	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
-21.288	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
-23.026	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
-24.080	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-26.938	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-30.243	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
-31.354	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-38.442	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-53.551	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
-56.488	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
-60.518	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-76.184	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
-81.205	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
-84.187	Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best)	Binary
-89.193	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
-110.024	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-144.008	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30)	Continuous
-191.955	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30)	Continuous
-200.397	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30)	Continuous
-205.745	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous