datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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15.42k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
127.416	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
125.381	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
121.263	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
119.714	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
103.822	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
98.905	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
97.965	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
97.914	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
96.637	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
96.348	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
94.147	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
93.598	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
91.957	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
91.353	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
90.843	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
90.833	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
90.207	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
90.207	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
90.035	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
89.597	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.397	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
88.459	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
87.032	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
85.709	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
85.709	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
84.769	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
84.403	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
83.979	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
83.813	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
83.692	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
83.496	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
83.444	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
82.617	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
82.449	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
82.045	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
81.838	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
81.327	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
80.825	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
80.820	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
80.481	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
80.316	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
79.901	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
79.655	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
77.891	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
77.773	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
76.571	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
76.345	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
76.173	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
75.931	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
75.854	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
75.241	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
74.730	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
74.680	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
74.128	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
74.128	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
74.128	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
73.974	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
73.971	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
73.961	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
73.297	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
73.274	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
72.976	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
72.532	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
72.511	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
71.998	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
71.996	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
71.973	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
70.410	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
70.053	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
70.014	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
69.424	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
68.943	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
68.781	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
68.781	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
68.781	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
68.781	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
68.781	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
68.781	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
68.781	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
68.597	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
68.091	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
67.916	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
67.901	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
66.981	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
66.821	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
66.696	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
66.545	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
66.495	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
65.969	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jan-2024)	Continuous
65.766	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
65.630	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
65.341	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
65.291	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
65.203	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
65.040	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
64.172	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
63.523	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
62.745	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
62.742	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
61.763	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
61.516	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
61.375	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
61.276	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
60.980	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
60.841	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
60.677	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
60.546	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
59.718	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
59.702	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
59.485	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
59.290	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
59.103	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
58.895	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
58.895	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
58.883	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
58.883	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
58.883	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
58.691	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
58.680	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
58.613	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
58.613	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
58.369	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
58.340	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
58.036	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
56.554	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
55.703	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
55.038	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
55.013	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
54.639	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
54.619	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
54.007	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
53.953	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
53.791	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
53.734	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
53.470	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
53.422	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
53.033	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
52.624	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
52.592	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
52.437	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
52.409	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
52.193	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
52.117	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
51.366	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
51.326	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
51.098	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
51.017	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
50.861	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
50.433	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
50.140	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
50.120	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
49.989	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
49.770	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
49.582	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
49.387	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
49.359	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
49.117	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
48.672	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
48.602	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
48.481	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
48.131	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
48.041	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
47.679	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
47.034	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
47.034	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
47.034	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
47.034	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
47.034	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
47.034	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
46.732	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
46.566	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
45.751	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
45.727	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
45.611	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
45.486	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
45.486	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
44.935	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
44.930	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
44.661	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
43.999	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
43.936	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
43.841	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
43.754	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
43.684	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
43.456	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
43.418	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
43.257	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
43.240	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
42.885	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
42.673	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
42.620	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
42.517	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
42.039	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
41.905	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
41.905	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
41.678	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
41.243	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
41.186	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
41.185	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
41.113	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
41.079	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
40.805	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
40.678	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
40.574	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
40.450	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
40.284	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
39.812	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
39.262	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
38.770	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
38.359	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
38.188	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
38.153	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
38.093	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
37.996	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
37.939	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.679	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
36.920	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
36.795	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
36.465	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
36.146	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
35.712	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
35.371	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
35.349	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
35.295	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
35.240	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
35.073	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
35.024	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
34.827	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
34.545	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
34.487	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
34.107	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
33.949	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
33.879	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
33.862	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
33.692	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
32.663	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
32.232	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
31.515	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
30.991	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
30.961	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
30.863	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
30.203	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
29.653	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
28.615	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
28.595	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
28.334	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
28.238	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
28.207	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
28.039	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
27.939	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.724	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
27.682	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
27.133	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
26.773	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
26.696	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
26.407	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
26.266	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
26.123	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
25.904	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
25.717	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
25.701	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.559	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
25.484	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
25.130	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
24.660	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
23.818	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
23.449	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
23.211	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
23.056	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
23.056	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
22.533	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
22.406	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
22.189	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
22.077	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
21.692	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2023 Dec 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
21.411	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
20.996	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
20.872	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
20.684	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
20.613	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
19.662	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
19.325	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
18.904	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
18.749	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
17.206	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
17.039	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
16.665	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.060	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
15.910	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
15.215	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
15.055	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
14.865	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
14.645	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
14.553	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
14.508	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
13.760	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
13.466	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
13.413	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
13.008	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
12.928	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
12.400	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
12.400	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
12.400	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
12.400	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
12.400	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
12.133	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.510	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
11.427	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
11.229	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
10.576	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
10.214	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
10.045	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
9.731	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
9.568	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
9.474	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
9.100	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
7.761	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
7.553	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
7.511	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
7.404	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
7.103	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
7.103	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
7.095	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
6.535	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
6.405	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
5.647	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
5.387	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
5.037	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.008	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
4.815	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
4.739	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.903	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
3.510	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
3.054	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
2.374	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
2.361	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
2.350	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
2.100	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
1.818	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
1.818	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
1.720	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
1.498	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
1.289	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
0.907	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
0.645	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
0.082	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
0.030	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
0.030	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
0.030	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
-	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.551	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
-0.642	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-2.714	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-4.148	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
-4.365	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-4.508	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-5.504	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-10.633	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
-11.571	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.937	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-13.617	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-13.727	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-13.863	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
-13.906	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-15.317	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-16.639	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-17.595	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
-19.028	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-23.728	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
-24.103	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-25.644	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-32.238	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-37.787	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-39.398	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-43.815	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-57.014	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-83.505	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-89.265	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-93.967	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2023)	Continuous
-256.488	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
-347.848	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary

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