datscilly

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7.236k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
189.536	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
169.835	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
164.059	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
130.655	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
119.861	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
111.535	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
107.667	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
103.967	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
103.863	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
102.462	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
100.370	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
99.862	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
97.890	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
96.174	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
92.312	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
92.303	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
92.031	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
87.725	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
87.312	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
86.454	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
86.385	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
85.775	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
84.535	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
83.274	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
83.108	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
83.105	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
82.054	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
81.996	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
81.593	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
80.496	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
80.264	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
79.810	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
78.922	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
78.754	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
78.638	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
78.214	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
75.707	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
75.706	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
73.836	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
73.692	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
73.677	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
73.631	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
73.435	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
72.214	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
71.910	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
71.113	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
71.014	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
67.305	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
67.110	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
66.731	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
65.931	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
65.310	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
64.918	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
64.830	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
64.443	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
64.366	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
63.737	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
63.421	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
62.894	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
61.909	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
61.737	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
61.282	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
61.182	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
59.747	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
58.864	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
58.284	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
58.182	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
57.770	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
57.704	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
57.673	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
57.450	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
56.811	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
56.371	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
56.096	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
55.574	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
55.419	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
55.383	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
54.623	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
53.831	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
52.803	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
52.695	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
52.598	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
51.794	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
51.491	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
51.333	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
51.241	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
50.950	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
50.884	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
50.751	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
49.180	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
49.001	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
48.137	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
47.624	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
47.051	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
46.981	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
46.968	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
44.879	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
43.133	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
42.507	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
42.282	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
42.014	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
41.482	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
41.304	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
41.248	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
40.168	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
40.137	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
39.601	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
38.877	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
36.527	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
36.129	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
34.653	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
33.700	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
33.146	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
32.435	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
32.273	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
31.411	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
31.041	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
30.694	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
30.316	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
28.011	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
27.983	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
27.817	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
26.814	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
26.804	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
26.242	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
26.148	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
25.578	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
24.793	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
23.538	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
23.529	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
23.329	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
20.349	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
19.155	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
19.142	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
19.090	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
18.382	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
18.301	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
17.521	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
16.645	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
16.638	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
15.468	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
15.349	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
14.472	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
14.439	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
14.194	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
13.961	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
12.850	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
12.802	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
11.401	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
10.829	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
9.046	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
8.495	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
8.248	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
8.122	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
7.447	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
7.166	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
5.484	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
4.972	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
4.650	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
4.527	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
3.745	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
3.010	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
2.274	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
2.112	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
2.010	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
1.834	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
0.286	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
0.137	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
0.077	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
-	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-2.623	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-7.282	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-9.221	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-9.525	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-10.887	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-11.986	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-12.097	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-13.364	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-14.407	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-17.736	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
-21.078	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-27.016	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
-32.593	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-33.260	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-33.819	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-35.524	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-40.106	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-43.693	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
-50.783	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
-53.641	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-56.429	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-58.344	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-59.501	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-66.135	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-67.267	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-69.531	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-81.405	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-94.978	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-101.486	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-137.856	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-182.389	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous