| 205.594 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 197.306 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 174.190 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 164.888 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 160.606 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 160.471 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 150.958 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 149.662 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 148.548 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 141.573 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 141.339 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 140.292 | What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 137.236 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 136.811 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 127.072 | COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 125.128 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 125.110 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 124.211 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 123.991 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 122.794 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 122.279 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 120.403 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 118.903 | Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 117.957 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 116.251 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 116.062 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 114.920 | How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 114.626 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 112.561 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 112.346 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 112.289 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 111.288 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 109.544 | What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? | Continuous |
| 108.523 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 107.564 | How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? | Continuous |
| 106.198 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015? | Continuous |
| 106.063 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 103.654 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 103.523 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 101.767 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 101.020 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 98.130 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.883 | When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0? | Continuous |
| 97.559 | When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million? | Continuous |
| 97.510 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 97.370 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 97.236 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.952 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 96.798 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 96.784 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 96.615 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 96.538 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 96.344 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.475 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.436 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 95.373 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 94.452 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.333 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 94.309 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.309 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.007 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.691 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 93.691 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 93.531 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 93.336 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 93.193 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.068 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 93.066 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 92.931 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 92.813 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 92.799 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 92.653 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 92.653 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 92.481 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.340 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 92.340 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 92.340 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 92.307 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 92.290 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 92.206 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 92.147 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.110 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 92.028 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 92.026 | On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)? | Continuous |
| 92.009 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.941 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 91.941 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 91.941 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 91.806 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| 91.752 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 91.736 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 91.568 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 91.489 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 91.486 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 91.412 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49? | Continuous |
| 91.290 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 91.039 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 90.849 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 90.849 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 90.838 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 90.434 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 90.338 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 90.300 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 90.247 | How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023? | Continuous |
| 89.974 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.905 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.772 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 89.670 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 89.498 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 89.381 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 89.265 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.246 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.474 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 88.474 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 88.474 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 88.432 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 87.988 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 87.934 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 87.854 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 87.782 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 87.674 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.374 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 87.337 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.489 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 86.402 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.395 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 86.255 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.254 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 86.060 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.640 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.363 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 85.299 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 85.119 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 84.889 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 84.757 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.448 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 84.386 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.085 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.798 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | Binary |
| 83.600 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 83.570 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 83.470 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.466 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 83.212 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 83.212 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 83.212 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 83.163 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.042 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 82.936 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 82.317 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 82.122 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 82.023 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 81.541 | When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 81.327 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 81.128 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 81.096 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 80.641 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 80.591 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 80.573 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.309 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 80.280 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 79.935 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 79.895 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 79.818 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 79.754 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 79.707 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 79.361 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 79.109 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 78.932 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 78.740 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 78.733 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.326 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.761 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 77.614 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 77.438 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 77.299 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 77.279 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 77.242 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 77.155 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 76.928 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 76.926 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 76.051 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.752 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 75.286 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 75.202 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 75.194 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 75.088 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 74.724 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 74.640 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 74.461 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 74.420 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 73.982 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 73.949 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 73.664 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 73.609 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max) | Continuous |
| 73.041 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 72.710 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.060 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 71.679 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 71.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 71.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 71.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 71.287 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 71.257 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 71.125 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 70.907 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 70.867 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
| 70.689 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 70.488 | Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? | Binary |
| 70.392 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 70.064 | What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 69.766 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 69.651 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
| 69.523 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 69.410 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 69.340 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 68.786 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 68.316 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 68.080 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 67.680 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.667 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 67.667 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 67.469 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 67.353 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 67.027 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 66.949 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023? | Binary |
| 66.693 | Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 66.516 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 66.254 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 65.862 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 65.783 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 65.754 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 65.574 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.386 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 64.926 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 64.914 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 64.914 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 64.914 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 64.889 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 64.785 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 64.394 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | Binary |
| 64.218 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 64.074 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 63.908 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 63.799 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 63.429 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 63.397 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 62.965 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 62.942 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 62.819 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 62.749 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 62.622 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 62.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 62.508 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 62.398 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 61.693 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 61.492 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 61.344 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 61.180 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 60.827 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 60.827 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 60.827 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 60.811 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 60.632 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 60.479 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 60.323 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 60.259 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 60.204 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 60.080 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 59.865 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 59.865 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 59.865 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 59.865 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 59.841 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 59.752 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 59.739 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 59.363 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 59.282 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 59.199 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 59.030 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 59.030 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 58.987 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 58.973 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 58.744 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 58.685 | How many deaths from terrorism in 2020? | Continuous |
| 58.481 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? | Continuous |
| 58.468 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 58.460 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 58.425 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 58.403 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 58.257 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 57.988 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 57.849 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 57.734 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 57.648 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 57.586 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 57.469 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? | Continuous |
| 57.048 | Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? | Binary |
| 56.996 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 56.986 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 56.840 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 56.523 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.258 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 56.176 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 56.175 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 56.126 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 56.060 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 56.060 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 55.926 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.819 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 55.575 | What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 55.519 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 55.338 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 55.243 | What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 54.923 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 54.816 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| 54.635 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 54.363 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 54.200 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 53.882 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 53.820 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 53.791 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 53.760 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 53.740 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 53.721 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 53.117 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 53.014 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 52.670 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? | Continuous |
| 52.583 | What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022? | Continuous |
| 52.441 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| 52.325 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 52.057 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 52.036 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
| 51.879 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 51.568 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 51.275 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 51.021 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 50.139 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 49.820 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 49.780 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 49.626 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 49.509 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 49.451 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 49.445 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 49.425 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 49.184 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 48.990 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 48.947 | What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 48.894 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 48.865 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 48.122 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 48.120 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 47.911 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 47.782 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 46.719 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 46.717 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 46.401 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 46.385 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 46.383 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 46.159 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 46.151 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.098 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 45.958 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.899 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.710 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 45.562 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.475 | What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report? | Continuous |
| 45.463 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.430 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.016 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 44.855 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 44.681 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 44.605 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 44.478 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 44.475 | What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 44.035 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 43.917 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 43.598 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 43.404 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 43.075 | What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities? | Continuous |
| 43.024 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 42.998 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 42.857 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 42.851 | When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| 42.840 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 42.634 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 42.524 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 42.106 | When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 42.007 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 40.815 | What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022) | Continuous |
| 40.366 | What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? | Continuous |
| 40.340 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.293 | What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 39.674 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 39.577 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 39.045 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 38.880 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 38.237 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 37.911 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 37.855 | In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? | Binary |
| 37.810 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
| 37.387 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 37.225 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 36.983 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 36.772 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 36.542 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 36.106 | Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 36.097 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 35.798 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 35.503 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 35.231 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.938 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
| 34.386 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 34.322 | How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 34.229 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 33.879 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 33.742 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| 33.512 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 33.370 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 32.954 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 32.823 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 32.800 | What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 32.740 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.531 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| 32.378 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 32.260 | When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? | Continuous |
| 32.035 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 31.863 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 30.482 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 30.460 | What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? | Continuous |
| 29.906 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 29.787 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 29.648 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 29.180 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 29.118 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 29.107 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 28.973 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 28.759 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 28.610 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 28.599 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 28.514 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 28.088 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 27.821 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 27.776 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 27.677 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 27.443 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.353 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 27.269 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 27.108 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 27.009 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 26.762 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 26.430 | What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming? | Continuous |
| 26.343 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.184 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 26.041 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 25.974 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 25.922 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 25.516 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 25.304 | When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? | Continuous |
| 25.183 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | Binary |
| 24.955 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.394 | How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021? | Continuous |
| 24.148 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.961 | How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia? | Continuous |
| 23.332 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 22.935 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 21.960 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 21.859 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.845 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 21.739 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 21.606 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 21.606 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.093 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 20.982 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 20.719 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 20.464 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 20.205 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 19.938 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 19.924 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 19.892 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.844 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 19.567 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 19.536 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 19.491 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 19.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 19.182 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 19.129 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 19.038 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| 18.958 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 18.883 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 18.779 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.624 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 18.420 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 18.376 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 18.203 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 17.760 | What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies? | Continuous |
| 17.719 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 17.719 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 17.523 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.270 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 17.256 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.247 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 17.175 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 17.000 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 17.000 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? | Continuous |
| 16.785 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 16.769 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.659 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.649 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 16.544 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| 16.533 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 16.487 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.327 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 16.309 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
| 15.798 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 15.722 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 15.036 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| 14.939 | What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? | Continuous |
| 14.889 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 14.658 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 14.639 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| 14.425 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 14.218 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 14.198 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 14.173 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.768 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 13.744 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 13.595 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 13.498 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 13.099 | By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 13.037 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 12.960 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 12.873 | If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? | Continuous |
| 12.791 | What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.588 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 12.238 | When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area? | Continuous |
| 12.154 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 12.043 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 11.458 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 11.295 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 11.295 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 11.217 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 11.207 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 11.206 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.070 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 10.900 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 10.833 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 10.832 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 10.832 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 10.780 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 10.501 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 10.391 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 10.147 | Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 9.848 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
| 9.397 | When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? | Continuous |
| 9.358 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? | Continuous |
| 9.327 | Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022? | Binary |
| 9.315 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.294 | When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) | Continuous |
| 9.273 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 8.862 | When will the first Activision/Blizzard/King game be added to Xbox Game Pass? | Continuous |
| 8.514 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.453 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 8.364 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 8.349 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 8.276 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 8.242 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 8.185 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 8.090 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 7.946 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.863 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 7.599 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 7.436 | When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels? | Continuous |
| 7.032 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.032 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.032 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 6.822 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.822 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 6.687 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.155 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.676 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 5.549 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 5.406 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 5.115 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 5.094 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 5.093 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 5.080 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 4.822 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 4.822 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.822 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.822 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 4.333 | When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land? | Continuous |
| 4.161 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.047 | What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022? | Continuous |
| 3.939 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 3.565 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 3.480 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 3.387 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 3.361 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| 3.291 | When will the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus) no longer be in shortage in the US? | Continuous |
| 2.563 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 2.465 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.435 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| 2.406 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.314 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.148 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 2.108 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 2.061 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 1.638 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 1.521 | How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 1.517 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.482 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 1.482 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.370 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 1.156 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 1.084 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.055 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 0.996 | How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.979 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 0.689 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.643 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang) | Binary |
| 0.376 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.335 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 0.332 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 0.278 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| 0.215 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 0.006 | When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| - | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| - | Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? | Binary |
| - | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| - | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| -0.284 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| -0.310 | When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union? | Continuous |
| -1.211 | When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted? | Continuous |
| -1.707 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| -2.130 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -2.145 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -2.207 | How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? | Continuous |
| -2.256 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| -2.446 | If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? | Continuous |
| -3.283 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -4.225 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
| -5.028 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -5.086 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -5.203 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
| -5.428 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -7.713 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -7.892 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -9.060 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -9.532 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -10.369 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -10.862 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -12.309 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -13.286 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? | Continuous |
| -14.159 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -15.700 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| -17.163 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -17.166 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -19.430 | When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur? | Continuous |
| -20.109 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| -22.032 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -22.360 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -22.638 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| -23.720 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | Continuous |
| -24.089 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -25.834 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| -26.170 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -26.858 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -29.402 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -31.178 | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| -33.609 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -38.954 | Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -38.993 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? | Continuous |
| -39.421 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -40.133 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -40.359 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -43.200 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| -44.584 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| -45.465 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -46.691 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -50.352 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -51.326 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| -51.855 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| -52.571 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -56.775 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -57.594 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -58.754 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| -60.678 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -67.067 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | Continuous |
| -71.978 | Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023? | Binary |
| -80.602 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -87.746 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -89.711 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -97.894 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -113.491 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -117.064 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | Continuous |
| -121.924 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -132.402 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -148.583 | When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? | Continuous |
| -152.331 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -168.846 | What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -182.995 | How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? | Continuous |
| -201.555 | What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -235.476 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |