kinnla

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

6.951k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.551	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
92.013	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
92.007	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
90.965	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
90.777	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
90.375	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
90.115	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
87.744	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
87.614	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
87.217	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
86.812	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
86.633	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
86.356	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
85.985	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
85.465	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
85.462	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
85.428	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
84.985	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
84.878	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
84.878	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
84.626	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
84.626	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
84.500	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
84.500	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
84.500	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
83.769	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
83.616	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
83.525	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
82.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
82.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
82.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
82.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
82.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
82.585	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
82.585	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
82.585	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
82.539	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
82.342	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
82.169	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
81.963	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
81.963	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
80.215	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
78.024	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
77.094	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
76.144	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
75.415	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
73.509	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
71.623	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
71.394	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
71.394	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Richárd Rapport)	Binary
70.358	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
70.288	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
70.072	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
69.978	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
68.102	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
67.547	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
66.609	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Teimour Radjabov)	Binary
64.137	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
63.598	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
63.218	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
62.551	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hjörvar Steinn Grétarsson)	Binary
62.551	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
62.551	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Matthias Blübaum)	Binary
61.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
61.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
61.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
61.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
61.586	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
61.194	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
60.323	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ding Liren)	Binary
59.434	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
59.317	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
58.981	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
57.465	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
56.559	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
54.071	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
53.661	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
53.008	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
52.008	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
50.880	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
50.017	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Wesley So)	Binary
49.797	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
48.497	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
48.425	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
45.302	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
44.602	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
43.875	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
43.481	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
42.421	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
41.462	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
41.387	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
41.362	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
40.963	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
39.023	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
38.710	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
37.975	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
37.528	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
37.005	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
36.818	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
35.944	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
35.485	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
34.192	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
33.239	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
32.708	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
32.460	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
32.114	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
31.364	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
30.948	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
30.652	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
30.168	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
30.031	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
30.014	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
27.285	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
27.152	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
26.384	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
26.136	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
25.892	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
25.065	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
24.766	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
23.983	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
22.296	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
22.146	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
21.913	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
21.521	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
21.497	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
20.893	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
20.681	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
20.587	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
20.516	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
19.291	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
18.311	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
16.306	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
15.184	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
15.023	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
14.916	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
14.846	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah)	Binary
14.492	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
14.236	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
13.176	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
12.882	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
11.391	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
10.956	How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Wednesday, November 23rd (the day before Thanksgiving), as reported by FlightAware?	Continuous
10.822	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
10.508	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
9.509	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
8.962	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure)	Binary
8.547	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
8.400	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
8.055	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
7.452	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
6.581	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
6.581	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
6.581	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
6.581	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
6.580	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
5.884	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
5.540	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
5.452	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
5.187	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga)	Binary
4.481	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
3.961	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
3.116	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
2.664	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
2.515	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
2.085	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
1.767	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
1.608	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
1.382	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
1.278	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
1.278	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros)	Binary
1.209	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
0.997	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.868	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
0.817	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
0.630	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
0.587	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
0.423	How many new Pokemon will Pokemon Scarlet and Violet introduce?	Continuous
0.277	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
0.214	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
-0.133	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-0.256	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-1.137	Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?	Binary
-2.157	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-2.982	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
-3.220	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-3.771	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-5.199	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-6.069	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto)	Binary
-6.474	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
-6.653	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
-7.373	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-10.395	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-10.681	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
-12.221	Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate?	Continuous
-12.902	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
-18.092	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-29.543	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-31.555	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-35.091	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-50.597	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-53.966	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-56.883	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-68.863	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-76.427	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-159.302	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-179.019	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
-204.174	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary