| 98.233 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 97.980 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 94.667 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.667 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.234 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 91.733 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 88.945 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 88.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 87.079 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 84.285 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 84.113 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 84.006 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 81.748 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 75.837 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 68.826 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 66.506 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 65.646 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 65.166 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 65.166 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 63.589 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 62.999 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 62.095 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 59.208 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 58.687 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 57.240 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 57.003 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 56.722 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 55.612 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 55.511 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 54.188 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 53.879 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 53.518 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 53.213 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 53.213 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 53.112 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 52.891 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 51.614 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.287 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 49.778 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 49.644 | By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors? | Continuous |
| 48.725 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 48.201 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 47.433 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 47.052 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 46.305 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 45.192 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 44.006 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 43.487 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | Binary |
| 42.404 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 41.573 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 41.232 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 38.192 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 36.823 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 36.823 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 36.125 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 35.369 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 35.336 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 35.024 | Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024? | Binary |
| 33.573 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 32.492 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 28.356 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 27.330 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 27.217 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 27.217 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 27.217 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 27.217 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 27.059 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 27.059 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 26.978 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 26.926 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 26.861 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 26.618 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 26.450 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 25.265 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 25.234 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 24.742 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 22.337 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 21.849 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.838 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 20.450 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 20.450 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 20.450 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 20.450 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 20.450 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 20.450 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 20.450 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 20.318 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 19.972 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 19.899 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 19.780 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 19.740 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 19.690 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| 18.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 18.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 15.447 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 15.187 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 15.164 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.887 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 13.886 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 13.667 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 13.542 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 13.507 | What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 13.189 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 12.661 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.339 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 11.543 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 11.535 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 11.505 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 11.498 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 11.477 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 11.387 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.890 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 10.704 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.101 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| 9.941 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 9.848 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 9.781 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 9.709 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 8.899 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 8.737 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 8.653 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 8.162 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 7.852 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 7.280 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 6.998 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 5.634 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 4.626 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 3.624 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 3.200 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.281 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 0.551 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.117 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| - | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -2.091 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -8.918 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -9.214 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -18.037 | By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| -19.920 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| -22.608 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -23.394 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -23.555 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -24.722 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -25.668 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -30.545 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -38.074 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -41.026 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -41.236 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -47.440 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -55.945 | How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022? | Continuous |
| -74.035 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| -81.970 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -102.938 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -128.651 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -130.013 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -233.033 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |