Reprisal

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1.82k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
177.414	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
122.228	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
120.344	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
119.716	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
117.419	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
108.542	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
107.366	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
99.324	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
97.913	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
94.465	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
93.757	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
93.379	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
92.491	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
91.885	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
91.544	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
90.805	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
90.784	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
90.427	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
90.264	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
89.897	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
88.032	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
88.022	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
87.867	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
84.491	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
83.910	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
82.668	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
82.316	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
82.038	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
80.319	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
79.618	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
77.735	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
76.939	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
76.696	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
76.030	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
75.435	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
75.435	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
74.313	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
71.748	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
71.378	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
70.782	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
70.625	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
69.345	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
67.165	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
67.034	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
65.827	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
64.304	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
64.146	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
63.467	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
63.449	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
62.827	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
60.448	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
59.776	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
59.592	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
59.112	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
58.963	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
57.981	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
57.833	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
56.147	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
56.037	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
55.976	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
55.770	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
55.294	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
54.823	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
54.191	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
53.500	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
53.081	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
52.455	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
52.448	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
51.693	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
51.222	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
51.099	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
50.741	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
50.591	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
49.884	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
49.808	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
49.369	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
49.177	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
47.919	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
47.283	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
46.985	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
45.767	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
45.565	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
44.702	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
44.674	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
44.130	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
43.373	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
42.038	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
40.645	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
40.561	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
39.385	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
39.191	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
38.602	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
37.723	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
37.083	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
37.075	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
36.584	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
36.426	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
35.194	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
34.472	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
34.169	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
33.446	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
32.477	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
31.831	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
31.090	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
31.031	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
29.816	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
29.629	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
27.472	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
26.705	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
26.345	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
25.459	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
25.372	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
24.910	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
24.500	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
24.251	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
23.818	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
22.107	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
21.866	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
20.679	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
18.883	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
17.731	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
17.655	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
17.497	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
16.219	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
16.063	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
15.821	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
15.418	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
15.006	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
14.009	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
13.756	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
12.950	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
12.580	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
11.423	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
11.080	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
9.194	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
8.266	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
7.049	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
4.154	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
3.865	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
3.748	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
3.245	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
1.219	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
-0.623	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
-2.048	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-2.982	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-3.889	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
-3.921	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
-4.831	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
-6.453	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-6.640	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-7.939	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-9.806	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
-11.715	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-12.202	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-12.909	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-15.473	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
-16.152	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
-18.663	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-24.124	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
-28.509	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-29.087	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-29.233	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-29.580	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-32.117	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-33.404	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-42.828	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-44.326	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-44.641	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-45.742	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-46.622	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
-49.074	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
-51.151	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-54.847	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-60.699	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-61.966	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-62.906	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-69.323	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-73.358	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-80.036	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-80.274	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-87.645	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-91.010	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-97.676	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
-111.333	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-126.809	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
-127.295	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-130.936	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-136.829	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-137.414	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-138.737	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-141.858	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-146.023	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-161.731	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
-165.962	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
-166.166	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-169.029	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
-176.729	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-181.505	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-198.818	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-208.638	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
-214.313	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-219.352	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-220.708	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
-220.915	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-222.429	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-223.613	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
-256.978	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary