mattvdm

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.053k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
149.140	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
125.500	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
108.868	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
107.776	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
106.870	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
106.123	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
104.354	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
104.086	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
103.494	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
101.293	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
96.677	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
95.101	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
92.312	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
92.050	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
91.673	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
91.203	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
90.822	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
84.994	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
83.460	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
82.266	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
81.670	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
81.406	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
80.727	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
80.261	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
79.628	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
78.412	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
75.202	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
74.848	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
72.008	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
69.980	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
68.786	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
68.501	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
64.807	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
64.774	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
63.368	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
61.035	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
60.827	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
60.461	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
60.070	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
59.958	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
58.873	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
58.441	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
58.088	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
57.815	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
56.916	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
56.645	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
56.512	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
56.333	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
55.013	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
54.305	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
53.785	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
52.828	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
50.013	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
49.654	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
49.593	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
49.156	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
48.517	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
47.952	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
47.429	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
46.854	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
46.365	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
46.195	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
46.159	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
45.537	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
44.602	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
44.594	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
43.174	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
42.700	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
42.487	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
42.392	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
42.270	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
41.735	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
40.805	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
39.750	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
38.863	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
37.741	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
37.675	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
37.591	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
34.977	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
34.937	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
32.122	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
32.010	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
31.880	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
31.457	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
31.177	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
30.978	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
30.610	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
27.998	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
27.982	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
27.247	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
26.928	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
26.898	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
25.814	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
25.569	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
25.171	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
25.164	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
25.016	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
24.383	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
23.857	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
23.690	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
23.683	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
22.547	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
20.865	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
20.642	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
19.834	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
18.461	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
17.244	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
17.132	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
16.785	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
16.051	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
15.389	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
15.247	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
15.194	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
14.955	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
14.015	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
13.861	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
13.729	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
12.834	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
11.969	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
11.023	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
8.463	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
7.631	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
5.992	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
5.721	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
5.157	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
4.665	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
3.543	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
3.499	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
3.257	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
3.249	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
2.015	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
1.910	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
1.474	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
1.247	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
0.548	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
-	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-1.413	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-1.580	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
-2.265	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-2.746	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-4.931	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-6.995	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-21.735	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-26.306	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-30.863	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
-31.124	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-33.717	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
-38.482	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-41.496	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-42.602	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-45.070	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-50.577	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-59.058	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-63.066	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-65.773	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-68.109	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-76.391	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-82.220	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-99.432	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-155.727	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-161.021	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous