mattvdm

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.295k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
148.412	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
110.489	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
106.168	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
102.239	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
97.671	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
97.375	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
96.745	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
96.688	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
96.406	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
96.379	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
95.517	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
95.084	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
92.447	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
91.977	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
90.116	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
88.616	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
88.588	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
87.895	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
87.895	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
86.841	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
86.467	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
84.539	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
84.411	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
84.396	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
84.287	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
83.705	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
83.130	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
82.202	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
80.360	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
79.509	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
78.550	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
77.669	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
77.131	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
76.971	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
76.581	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
76.250	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
75.590	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
75.518	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
71.392	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
71.120	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
69.995	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
69.591	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
69.588	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.459	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
65.783	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
63.129	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
62.124	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
59.612	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
59.119	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
58.863	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
58.211	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
57.898	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
56.588	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
53.768	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
53.469	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
49.056	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
47.460	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
47.319	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
47.151	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
47.096	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
45.768	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
44.161	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
43.346	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
42.938	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
42.682	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
42.088	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
41.908	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
40.827	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
40.809	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
40.670	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
38.475	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
37.515	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
36.915	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
36.121	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
35.347	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
31.174	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
31.136	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
30.914	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
27.097	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
26.660	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
26.568	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
25.245	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
21.535	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
18.138	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
13.622	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.191	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
13.083	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
9.050	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
8.074	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
7.965	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
6.742	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
5.506	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
3.596	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
3.295	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
3.230	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
2.857	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
2.700	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
2.677	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
2.553	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
1.596	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
1.008	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
0.852	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
0.335	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
0.324	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
0.235	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
0.198	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
0.159	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
0.157	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.146	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
0.141	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
0.125	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
0.118	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
0.065	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
0.062	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
0.034	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
0.026	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
0.025	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
0.017	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-0.005	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-0.081	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-0.448	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-0.642	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-2.112	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
-2.179	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
-2.810	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-3.233	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-4.449	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-5.299	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-6.319	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-6.877	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
-7.750	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-8.229	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-9.538	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-10.447	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-11.496	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
-11.582	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-11.959	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
-12.186	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-16.990	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-20.984	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-24.212	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-25.941	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-27.917	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
-29.099	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-29.676	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-45.400	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-49.507	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-49.890	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-61.440	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-65.321	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-66.537	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-104.972	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-109.934	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-124.510	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-194.374	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-198.700	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary