BrianGoodrich

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.296k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.467	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
98.223	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.223	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
97.408	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
97.178	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
97.164	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
95.274	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
95.055	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
95.003	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
93.263	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
89.058	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
86.297	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
85.717	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
85.688	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
85.434	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
85.082	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
84.214	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
83.784	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
83.436	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
83.155	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
82.015	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
81.826	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
81.473	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
80.842	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
78.235	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
78.097	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
77.459	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
77.160	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
76.752	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
75.978	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
75.805	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
73.718	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
72.612	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
72.277	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
71.695	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
66.284	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
66.284	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
65.347	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
65.347	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
65.347	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
65.228	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
64.671	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
64.302	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
63.518	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
62.550	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
62.002	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
61.053	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
60.339	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
58.432	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
57.602	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
56.956	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
56.455	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
55.701	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
54.665	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
53.992	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
52.815	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
52.465	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
51.842	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
51.708	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
51.647	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
50.865	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
50.572	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
50.206	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
49.712	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
49.700	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
48.609	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
47.639	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
47.538	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
47.460	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
47.253	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
46.695	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
44.459	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
43.736	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
43.540	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
43.060	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
42.796	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
42.617	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
41.786	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
39.335	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
39.086	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
36.841	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
36.776	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
35.743	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
35.344	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
35.007	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
34.907	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
32.856	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
32.649	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
31.933	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
31.692	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
28.415	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
26.922	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
25.220	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
25.117	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
24.871	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
23.315	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
22.452	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
21.550	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
20.438	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
20.213	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
19.915	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
18.475	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
17.243	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
17.115	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
15.857	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
13.850	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
13.489	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
12.921	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
11.396	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
10.760	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
9.725	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
9.710	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
9.341	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
8.996	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
8.587	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
8.224	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
7.565	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
6.748	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
6.091	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
5.675	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
4.417	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
3.945	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
3.428	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
3.335	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
2.758	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
1.044	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
0.898	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
0.525	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
0.204	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-7.179	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-7.573	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-13.482	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-26.818	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-28.943	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-35.165	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-38.418	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-43.824	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-43.834	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-45.685	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-47.170	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-58.727	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-63.879	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-91.852	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-114.401	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-118.366	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-129.499	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary