Zweihander

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.986k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
169.941	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
168.058	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
124.477	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
112.382	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
108.588	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
99.134	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
96.085	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
92.078	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
91.412	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
85.904	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
85.392	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
82.136	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
81.749	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
81.476	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
80.690	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
79.309	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
78.704	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
77.965	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
77.583	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
77.354	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
75.983	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
73.998	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
72.825	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
69.293	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
68.768	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
68.268	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
67.868	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
67.557	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
67.498	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
66.739	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
65.236	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
65.232	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
64.761	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
64.608	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
63.905	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
63.739	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
63.518	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
63.261	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
62.282	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
61.522	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
61.388	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
61.157	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
59.030	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
58.675	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
58.327	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
57.976	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
57.892	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
57.838	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
57.653	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
57.371	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
56.792	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
55.114	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
54.954	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
54.824	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
54.429	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
54.302	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
54.237	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
53.163	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
51.307	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
51.180	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
50.354	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
49.648	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
48.927	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
48.669	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
47.084	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
46.998	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
44.391	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
43.897	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
42.688	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
42.676	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
42.278	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
41.934	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
41.250	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
40.484	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
39.573	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
39.141	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
38.795	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
38.333	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
36.326	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
36.239	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
36.062	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
35.921	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
35.685	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
35.611	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
35.229	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
34.251	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
33.904	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
33.595	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
32.028	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
31.287	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
31.114	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
31.024	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
30.933	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
30.433	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
29.746	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
29.461	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
29.456	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
28.995	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
28.494	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
27.896	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
27.432	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
26.506	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
26.095	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
25.826	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
25.715	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
25.353	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
24.631	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
24.034	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
23.578	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
23.521	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
23.497	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
22.858	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
22.731	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
21.928	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
21.132	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
20.796	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
19.084	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
18.847	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
18.616	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
17.157	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
16.951	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
16.507	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
15.937	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
15.770	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
15.378	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
15.271	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
13.528	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
13.509	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
13.468	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
13.456	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
13.376	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
11.981	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
10.631	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
10.456	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
10.428	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
10.235	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
10.232	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
9.757	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
9.695	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
9.614	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
9.399	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
8.999	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
8.935	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
6.705	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
6.602	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
6.202	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
6.148	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
5.986	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
3.816	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
3.027	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
2.649	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
2.337	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
1.812	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
-	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-0.427	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-1.875	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-2.955	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
-4.200	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-5.315	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-5.345	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-5.945	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
-7.578	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-8.026	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-8.059	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
-8.181	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
-8.580	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-8.714	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-8.865	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-10.887	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-11.806	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
-12.598	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-13.891	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
-13.987	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-16.763	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
-17.605	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
-21.960	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-24.441	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
-26.629	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-29.716	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-31.732	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
-34.078	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-38.262	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-38.495	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-38.763	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-40.442	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
-41.131	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-43.153	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
-45.518	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-47.138	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-47.291	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-51.418	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-59.591	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-60.185	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-76.363	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-78.212	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-81.428	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-83.285	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-94.106	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-95.978	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
-109.029	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
-111.152	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-116.756	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-120.664	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-130.052	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-138.082	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-156.255	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-202.484	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-222.464	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary