Zweihander

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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14.81k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
202.472	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
201.734	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
184.171	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
179.451	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
163.242	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
162.631	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
151.486	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
143.602	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
128.113	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
127.964	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
127.255	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
122.876	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
121.710	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
117.840	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
115.588	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
115.497	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
109.231	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
108.653	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
106.354	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
103.226	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
100.374	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
99.977	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
97.738	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
97.399	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
96.675	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
96.599	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
95.400	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
95.182	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
94.665	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
94.446	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
94.365	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
93.855	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
93.845	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
93.835	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
93.464	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
93.393	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
93.099	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
92.747	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
92.442	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
92.332	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
92.276	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
92.247	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
92.213	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
92.091	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
92.014	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
91.819	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
91.351	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
90.833	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
90.750	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
90.691	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
90.642	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
88.261	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
88.256	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
87.135	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
86.735	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
86.548	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
86.450	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
86.341	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
85.930	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
85.622	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
85.526	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
85.305	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
84.616	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
84.606	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
84.584	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
84.205	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
84.131	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
84.069	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
83.913	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
83.844	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
83.390	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
83.370	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
83.352	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
82.911	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
81.984	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
81.573	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
81.365	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
81.362	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
81.082	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
80.944	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
80.344	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
79.164	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
79.043	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
78.381	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
77.613	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
77.464	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
77.463	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
77.131	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
76.928	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
76.454	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
76.303	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
75.718	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
75.511	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
75.502	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
75.459	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
75.139	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
75.114	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
75.009	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
74.580	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
74.466	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
73.279	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
73.104	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
72.538	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
71.783	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
71.357	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
70.732	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
70.561	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
70.358	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
70.318	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
70.285	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
69.882	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
69.866	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
68.841	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
68.644	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
68.468	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
68.364	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
68.052	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
67.868	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
67.787	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
67.634	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
67.562	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
67.516	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
67.481	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
67.391	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
67.167	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
66.950	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
66.547	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
66.514	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
66.482	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
66.424	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
66.421	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
66.242	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
65.333	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
65.160	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
64.945	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
64.812	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
64.735	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
64.469	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
64.362	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
64.255	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
64.081	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
63.802	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
63.480	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
62.958	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
62.953	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
62.887	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
62.777	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
62.611	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
62.441	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
62.414	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
61.751	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
61.395	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
61.353	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
61.295	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
60.910	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
60.884	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
60.514	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
60.381	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
60.053	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
59.974	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
59.606	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
59.412	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
59.298	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
58.749	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
58.574	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
58.391	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
58.391	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
58.269	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
58.009	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
57.841	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
56.874	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
56.800	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
56.760	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
56.593	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
56.451	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
56.450	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
56.441	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
56.427	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
56.291	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
56.242	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
56.054	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
56.039	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
55.408	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
55.274	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
55.240	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
54.775	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
54.663	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
54.385	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
53.786	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
53.640	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
53.208	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
52.859	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
52.773	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
52.773	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
52.734	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
52.663	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
51.937	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
51.368	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
50.983	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
50.950	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
50.645	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
50.632	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
50.564	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
50.441	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
50.242	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
50.199	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
49.727	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
49.640	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
49.620	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
49.376	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
49.006	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
48.764	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
48.750	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
48.161	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
48.150	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
48.140	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
47.858	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
47.723	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
47.702	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
47.617	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
47.617	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
47.357	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
47.288	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
47.203	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
47.108	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
46.813	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
46.197	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
45.952	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
45.343	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
45.107	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
44.967	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
44.754	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
44.509	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
44.142	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
43.597	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
43.155	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
43.018	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
42.862	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
42.108	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
41.977	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
41.914	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
41.862	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
41.728	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
41.474	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
40.995	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
40.307	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
39.592	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
39.067	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
38.988	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
38.805	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
38.306	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
37.972	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
37.874	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
37.831	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
37.776	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
37.425	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
36.950	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
36.747	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
36.261	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
35.960	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
35.781	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
35.703	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
35.523	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
35.506	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
34.299	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
34.210	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
33.801	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
33.647	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
33.549	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
33.168	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
32.980	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
32.874	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
32.011	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
31.690	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
31.620	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
31.573	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
31.486	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
31.347	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
30.724	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
29.815	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
28.952	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
28.775	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
28.033	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
27.528	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
27.272	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
27.167	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
26.140	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.056	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
26.056	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
25.761	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
25.375	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
24.964	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
24.871	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
24.572	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
24.092	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
24.084	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
23.891	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
23.597	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
23.510	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
23.336	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
23.154	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
22.964	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
22.612	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
22.429	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
21.425	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
20.988	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
20.908	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
20.193	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
20.079	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
19.958	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
18.627	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
18.508	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
18.352	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
18.298	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
18.159	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
17.719	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
17.475	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
16.844	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
16.209	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
16.074	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
15.817	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
15.552	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
15.492	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
15.342	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
15.110	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
15.065	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
14.174	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
14.110	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
13.717	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.594	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
13.240	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
13.106	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
13.041	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
12.430	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
11.089	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
10.736	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
10.337	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
10.272	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
10.119	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
9.333	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
8.649	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
8.451	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
7.955	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
7.919	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
7.647	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
6.869	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
6.753	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
6.366	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
6.069	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
5.848	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
5.644	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
5.570	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
5.462	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
5.422	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
4.757	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
4.234	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
4.202	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
3.841	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
3.213	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
2.860	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
2.579	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
2.507	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
2.333	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance)	Continuous
1.917	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP)	Continuous
1.822	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
1.782	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru)	Continuous
1.757	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
1.654	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
1.620	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP)	Continuous
1.565	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin)	Continuous
1.393	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
0.988	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
0.867	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
0.649	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
0.593	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
0.535	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.507	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
0.309	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
0.213	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
0.201	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
0.162	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.062	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
0.058	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
0.039	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
0.000	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-1.363	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-1.872	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
-2.224	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
-2.247	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-2.704	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-3.717	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-5.291	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-5.312	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
-5.547	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
-5.886	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-6.062	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
-6.993	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
-7.410	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
-7.620	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-8.063	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-8.299	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-9.172	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-9.737	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
-11.711	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-12.536	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-13.065	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-13.419	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
-14.298	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-14.453	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
-14.673	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
-15.140	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
-15.193	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
-16.161	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-16.465	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-17.912	What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?	Continuous
-21.179	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-21.406	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-22.179	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
-23.327	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-26.640	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-27.272	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-27.472	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-28.958	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-30.436	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-31.178	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-31.179	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-31.552	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-32.042	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-32.192	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-32.837	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-33.065	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-33.433	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-35.214	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
-35.323	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-36.619	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-38.152	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-38.572	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-41.231	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-41.555	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-42.642	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-42.717	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-42.854	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-47.220	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-56.445	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-59.325	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-61.973	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
-62.069	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-64.176	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-65.269	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-68.059	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
-69.003	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-71.336	What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-71.908	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
-72.310	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-72.862	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-72.948	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-76.149	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-77.592	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-83.223	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-86.741	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
-91.073	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
-93.304	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-97.074	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-99.520	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-103.958	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-104.278	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-118.504	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-125.932	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-130.729	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
-155.446	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-164.167	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-170.332	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-184.380	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-188.655	What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-192.185	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-197.193	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-202.179	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-207.765	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-216.181	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-224.698	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-224.934	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary