Bob_Jacobs

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.712k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
162.421	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
106.295	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
98.969	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
97.762	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
96.222	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
94.856	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
90.311	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
89.007	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
87.486	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
87.048	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
84.852	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
84.829	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
84.274	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
82.988	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
76.210	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
75.459	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
74.911	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
73.922	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
73.691	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
73.544	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
72.022	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
71.831	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
70.996	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
68.255	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
67.108	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
65.838	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
64.686	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
64.642	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
63.696	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
63.651	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
60.964	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
59.556	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
58.078	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
57.637	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
57.021	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
57.006	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
56.976	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
56.235	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
55.289	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
55.163	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
54.639	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
53.982	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
53.954	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
53.947	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
53.810	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
53.330	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
53.224	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
51.954	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
51.919	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
51.908	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
51.430	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
51.312	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
50.069	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
50.051	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
49.750	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
48.746	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
47.232	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
46.205	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
45.914	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
45.654	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
45.478	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
44.243	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
44.070	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
43.844	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
43.419	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
42.917	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
42.891	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
41.148	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
40.508	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
40.167	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
39.803	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
38.032	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
37.724	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
36.773	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
35.694	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
35.239	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
33.980	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
33.617	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
33.542	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
33.021	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
32.930	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
32.728	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
32.425	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
32.303	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
31.250	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
31.247	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
30.693	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
30.157	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
29.048	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
29.034	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
28.734	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
28.452	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
28.259	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
27.753	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
27.422	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
26.976	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
26.163	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
25.755	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
24.232	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
23.683	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
23.273	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
23.107	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
21.695	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
21.354	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
20.671	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
20.493	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
19.879	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
19.545	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
19.308	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
18.910	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
18.816	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
18.734	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
18.329	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
18.130	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
17.582	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
17.264	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
16.932	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
16.825	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
16.563	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
16.323	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
15.656	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
15.370	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
13.936	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
13.004	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
12.439	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
11.760	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
11.685	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
11.678	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
11.367	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
11.216	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
10.729	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
10.212	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
9.434	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
9.428	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
8.919	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
8.842	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
8.809	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
8.347	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
7.666	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
7.576	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
6.171	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
5.405	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
5.151	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
4.775	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
3.947	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
3.685	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
3.576	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
1.663	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
1.133	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
0.918	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
0.212	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
0.166	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
0.135	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
-	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-0.099	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-0.142	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-0.198	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-0.563	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
-0.636	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-0.944	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-1.168	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-2.060	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-2.839	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-2.861	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-3.831	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
-4.359	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-4.703	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-7.049	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-8.470	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-12.921	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-16.823	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-17.170	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-19.749	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-21.621	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-21.815	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-23.770	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-26.054	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-27.746	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-32.048	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-40.687	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-40.981	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-42.635	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-47.194	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-51.692	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-55.000	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-62.036	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-71.413	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-97.711	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-120.035	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-130.915	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-140.213	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-192.436	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous