Bob_Jacobs

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7.455k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
121.742	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
107.596	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
106.388	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
95.923	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
93.195	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
90.532	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
89.499	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
87.308	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
87.308	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
85.090	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
83.809	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
83.628	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
83.485	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
83.030	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
82.744	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
82.124	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
81.841	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
80.231	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
79.846	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
79.555	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
78.141	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
76.675	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
76.113	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
75.618	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
75.180	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
75.102	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
74.859	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
74.326	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
73.718	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
72.952	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
72.786	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
72.262	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
71.340	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
69.768	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
69.260	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
68.751	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
68.483	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
68.268	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
68.268	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
68.268	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
68.140	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
68.085	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
66.944	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
66.708	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
65.342	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
65.252	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
64.882	Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?	Binary
63.611	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
62.558	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
62.214	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
61.573	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
60.849	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
60.643	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
60.604	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
60.373	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
59.929	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
59.592	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
59.237	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
58.909	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
58.153	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
56.652	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
56.220	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
56.051	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
54.990	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
54.311	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
53.655	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
52.490	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
51.500	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
51.237	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
51.171	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
50.904	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
50.430	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
50.028	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
50.028	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
50.028	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
50.028	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
50.028	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
50.028	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
50.005	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
49.816	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
49.451	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
48.668	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
48.407	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
48.325	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
47.787	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
47.775	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
45.905	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
45.813	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
44.668	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
44.575	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
43.919	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
41.399	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
41.349	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
41.044	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
40.965	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
40.929	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
40.725	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
40.288	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
39.617	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
39.560	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
39.145	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
38.720	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
38.265	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
38.187	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
37.815	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
37.319	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
35.769	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
35.719	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
35.670	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
35.561	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
35.382	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
35.113	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
35.106	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
34.264	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
34.179	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
33.305	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
33.252	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
32.825	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
32.500	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
32.387	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
31.831	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
31.615	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
31.169	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
30.798	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
30.159	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
29.554	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
29.409	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
28.999	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
28.314	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
28.166	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
27.965	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
27.883	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
27.878	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
27.759	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
27.538	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
27.411	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
26.606	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
26.290	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
25.834	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
25.726	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
24.686	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
24.350	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
24.076	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
23.979	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
23.725	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
23.551	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
22.900	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
22.636	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
22.478	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
22.438	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
22.273	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
22.020	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
21.996	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
21.655	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
20.936	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
20.051	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
20.051	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
20.051	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
20.051	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
20.051	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
20.043	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
20.043	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
20.043	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
19.963	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
19.842	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
19.385	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
19.035	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
18.804	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
18.717	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
18.132	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
17.080	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
16.897	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
16.671	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
16.258	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
16.001	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
14.746	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
14.340	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
14.340	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
14.339	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
14.332	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
14.331	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
14.331	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
13.942	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
13.708	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
13.692	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
12.502	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
11.787	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
11.599	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
11.183	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
11.101	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
10.585	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
9.334	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
8.751	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
8.731	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
7.968	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
7.852	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
7.819	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
7.621	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
7.065	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
6.802	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
6.394	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
5.978	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
5.595	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
5.351	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
5.238	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
5.175	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
5.021	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
4.153	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
4.137	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
3.756	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
3.576	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
3.529	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
3.513	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
3.316	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
3.109	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
2.469	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
2.418	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
2.154	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
1.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
1.540	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
1.107	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
1.107	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
1.107	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
1.107	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
1.100	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
1.084	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
1.035	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
1.035	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.035	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
1.035	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
1.035	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.035	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
1.035	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
1.029	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
0.928	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.752	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
0.553	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
0.547	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
0.330	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.125	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.114	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
0.047	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-0.133	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-0.505	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-0.547	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-0.635	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-0.929	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-1.612	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-3.867	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-5.021	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-6.438	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-8.846	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-8.930	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-9.031	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-9.968	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-10.296	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-10.410	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-11.931	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-12.467	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-13.226	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-13.804	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-16.248	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-18.075	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-22.199	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-30.283	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-30.774	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-31.844	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
-31.935	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-39.586	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-51.431	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-55.400	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-58.748	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-59.648	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-61.801	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-66.875	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
-78.044	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-89.593	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-95.513	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-97.953	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
-119.967	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-121.015	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-217.026	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary