elifland

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.784k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
173.117	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
106.241	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
106.120	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
105.706	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
103.485	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
98.750	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
98.544	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
97.410	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
96.456	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
96.420	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
96.381	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
96.261	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
95.446	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
95.296	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
95.256	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
94.441	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
94.338	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
94.060	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
93.846	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
92.548	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
90.673	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
88.738	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
88.651	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
88.647	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
87.668	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
85.920	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
85.091	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
84.001	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
83.907	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
83.166	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
83.072	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
82.476	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
81.291	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
81.042	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
80.886	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
79.772	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
77.624	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
77.494	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
77.240	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
76.844	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
76.660	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
76.309	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
74.340	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
74.201	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
73.699	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
73.314	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
72.860	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
71.595	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
70.418	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
68.630	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
68.353	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
68.326	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
68.031	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
67.160	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
65.777	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
63.012	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
59.823	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
59.426	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
59.239	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
58.475	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
58.275	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
57.862	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
56.436	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
56.091	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
55.877	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
54.572	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
53.547	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
50.253	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
49.339	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
48.504	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
46.466	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
43.503	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
43.427	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
42.856	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
42.791	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
41.508	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
41.078	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
39.957	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
38.634	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
37.819	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
33.672	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
33.632	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
32.313	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
31.774	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
31.585	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
28.979	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
26.733	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
25.938	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
25.673	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
25.196	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
24.426	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
24.255	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
22.262	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
22.255	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
21.894	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
20.877	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
20.782	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
20.650	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
16.763	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
16.481	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
14.223	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
14.085	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
13.448	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
13.344	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
13.146	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
12.677	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
12.556	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
11.565	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
10.054	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
9.908	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
9.888	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
9.756	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
9.235	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
6.582	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
3.745	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
3.490	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
3.416	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
3.303	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
1.986	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
0.106	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.661	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-1.639	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
-1.671	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-2.028	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-2.408	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
-4.040	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-9.220	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-13.296	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-13.729	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-14.280	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
-14.892	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-20.245	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
-20.676	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-21.362	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-21.687	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-25.597	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-26.290	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-27.453	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
-32.180	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-35.479	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-35.505	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-36.838	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-42.125	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
-45.137	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-53.184	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
-58.016	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-76.704	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-78.252	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-82.180	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-92.998	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-95.806	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-99.679	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-101.747	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-111.069	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-112.918	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-188.475	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-302.020	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary