katifish

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.28k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
203.633	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
168.676	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
161.270	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
157.824	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
154.385	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
138.192	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
135.566	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
134.130	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
133.980	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
133.584	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
128.267	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
124.792	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
121.789	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
115.684	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
112.714	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
111.078	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
109.063	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
108.020	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
107.945	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
104.718	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
103.642	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
101.664	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
98.531	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
98.516	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
98.226	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
97.930	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
97.897	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
97.862	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
97.293	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
97.145	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
96.697	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
96.634	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
94.549	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
94.326	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
94.108	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
93.764	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
93.363	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
91.976	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
89.326	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
86.769	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
86.210	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
85.796	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
85.122	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
84.995	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
84.792	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
84.652	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
84.403	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
82.912	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
82.725	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
81.822	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
81.211	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
80.585	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
80.465	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
80.247	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
79.671	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
78.828	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
78.073	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
77.117	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
76.376	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
76.187	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
76.134	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
75.256	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
75.148	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
73.576	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
73.472	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
73.349	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
72.818	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
72.769	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
72.653	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
72.194	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
71.956	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
71.672	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
71.033	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
70.128	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
69.134	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
68.886	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
68.492	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
67.726	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
67.689	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
67.273	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
66.925	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
65.995	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
65.634	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
65.567	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
65.567	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
65.567	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
65.567	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
65.528	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
65.335	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
65.219	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
64.779	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
64.776	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
64.172	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
64.142	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
63.614	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
61.902	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
61.902	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
61.861	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
61.855	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
60.670	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
60.262	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
60.053	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
59.856	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
59.710	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
59.035	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
58.880	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
57.341	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
57.036	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
56.996	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
56.561	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
56.438	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
56.420	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
56.338	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
56.248	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
56.166	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
55.887	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
55.022	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
52.453	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
52.053	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
51.109	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
50.785	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
50.782	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
50.326	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
49.801	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
49.085	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
48.814	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
47.601	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
46.122	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
45.546	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
43.525	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
42.954	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
42.112	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
41.645	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
41.641	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
41.634	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
41.617	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
41.617	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
41.617	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
41.597	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
41.242	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
40.951	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
40.747	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
40.119	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
40.051	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
39.971	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
39.971	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
39.971	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
39.971	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
39.590	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
38.859	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
38.751	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
38.426	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
38.291	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
37.887	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
37.691	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
37.543	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
36.638	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
35.967	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
35.757	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
35.735	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
34.658	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
33.922	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
33.493	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
32.332	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
32.189	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
30.412	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
30.280	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
29.203	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
28.998	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
28.893	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
28.861	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
28.654	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
28.524	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
27.319	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
26.258	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
25.442	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
25.369	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
24.610	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
24.342	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
23.775	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
23.611	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
23.550	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
23.537	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
23.330	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
22.961	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
22.622	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
21.448	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
20.826	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
20.083	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
19.534	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.508	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
18.638	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
18.609	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
17.973	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
17.520	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
16.985	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
16.853	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
16.455	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
14.300	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.554	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
13.542	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
13.211	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
12.363	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
11.768	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
11.750	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
11.315	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
10.955	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
10.394	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
10.258	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
9.827	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
9.625	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
9.457	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
9.154	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
6.930	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
6.767	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
5.641	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
4.857	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
4.358	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
4.242	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
3.797	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
3.528	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
2.337	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
1.766	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
1.484	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.905	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
0.688	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
0.414	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
0.191	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
0.096	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
0.071	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
-	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-0.410	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-0.682	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-1.179	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-4.380	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-5.206	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
-5.458	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-7.560	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-7.694	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
-8.756	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-8.778	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
-10.007	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-16.816	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-18.230	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-18.490	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
-28.516	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
-30.305	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
-30.990	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-31.990	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-32.244	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-32.724	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-34.967	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-41.636	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-42.368	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-42.541	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-46.560	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-53.294	What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-54.903	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-65.447	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-68.025	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-68.455	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-69.550	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-76.420	What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-89.180	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-98.009	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-99.523	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-100.247	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-101.111	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-172.915	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary