| 99.233 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.347 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.197 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 98.190 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 97.882 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.678 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 96.995 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 96.226 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 96.215 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 95.689 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 95.635 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.628 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.597 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 95.507 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.959 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 94.919 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.648 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 94.469 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 93.971 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 93.965 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 92.371 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 91.977 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 90.949 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 90.132 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.267 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 89.127 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 86.590 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 86.318 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.927 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 85.301 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 84.983 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 83.601 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 82.267 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 81.760 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 81.567 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 80.304 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 80.304 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 79.438 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 76.970 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 75.264 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 73.182 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 73.139 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 72.517 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 72.369 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 70.241 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 69.617 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 69.276 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 69.211 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 69.211 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 68.750 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 68.395 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 68.395 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 66.785 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 65.668 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 64.461 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 63.850 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 63.116 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 62.957 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 61.788 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 60.774 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 60.648 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 60.626 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 58.526 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 58.426 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 58.325 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 57.445 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 57.089 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.866 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 56.179 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.559 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? | Continuous |
| 55.531 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 54.586 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 53.656 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 52.952 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 52.091 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 50.760 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 50.088 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.844 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation? | Continuous |
| 48.715 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 48.715 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 48.704 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 48.666 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 48.510 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 48.510 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 48.412 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 47.685 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 46.942 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 46.886 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 45.692 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 44.826 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 43.632 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 42.986 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 40.082 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 40.081 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 40.081 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 40.081 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 39.818 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.267 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 39.142 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 38.663 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.821 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 35.821 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 35.821 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 35.821 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 35.288 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 32.984 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 32.797 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 32.516 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 30.823 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 30.823 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 28.464 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 27.459 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 26.818 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 26.305 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 25.067 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 24.533 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 24.147 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.448 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| 21.430 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 19.603 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 19.462 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.159 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 19.159 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 18.697 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 18.687 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 18.353 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 18.251 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 18.123 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 16.866 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 12.735 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 12.497 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 12.273 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 12.273 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 12.273 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 12.194 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.250 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.933 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.988 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 5.443 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 5.443 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 5.443 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 5.443 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 5.443 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 5.281 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 5.281 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 4.263 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 2.922 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 2.778 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 2.711 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 2.524 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 2.514 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 2.496 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 1.538 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 0.266 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.094 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -0.152 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -17.100 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -17.508 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -18.196 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -20.628 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -66.585 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -129.378 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -130.825 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -224.295 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |