rantahar

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.882k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
108.558	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
106.521	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
97.965	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
96.919	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
95.507	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
94.014	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.487	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
92.487	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
92.487	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
92.487	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
92.487	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
91.006	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
86.183	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
84.820	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
84.634	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
83.287	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
82.305	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
76.510	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
75.844	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
72.813	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
72.502	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
72.330	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
71.010	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
70.599	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
70.349	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
69.964	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
69.461	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
67.230	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
65.741	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
65.587	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
63.136	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
62.915	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
62.534	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
62.534	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
62.534	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
62.534	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
62.534	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
62.528	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
60.313	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
59.481	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
59.123	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
59.079	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
58.822	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
58.530	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
58.388	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
58.385	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
58.078	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
57.231	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
54.143	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
51.553	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
50.043	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
49.476	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
49.044	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
48.335	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
48.287	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
47.885	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
47.878	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
47.160	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
46.401	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
46.331	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
45.653	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
43.272	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
43.144	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
42.325	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
40.857	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
40.574	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
39.969	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
38.677	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
38.626	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
37.854	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
37.498	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
36.094	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
35.833	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
35.833	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
35.833	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
35.833	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
35.833	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
35.833	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
35.780	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
35.655	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
35.398	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
35.276	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
35.041	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
34.578	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
32.806	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
32.196	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
29.842	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
29.323	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
27.240	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
26.737	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
26.126	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
25.481	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
25.481	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
23.083	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
22.207	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
21.717	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
21.692	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
21.200	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
20.347	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
19.965	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
19.049	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
19.048	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
17.697	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
17.418	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
16.816	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
16.651	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
16.255	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
16.133	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
16.133	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
16.133	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
15.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
15.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
15.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
15.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
15.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
15.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
15.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
15.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
15.313	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
14.930	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
14.587	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
13.399	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
13.065	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
12.915	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
11.937	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
11.476	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
11.268	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
11.039	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
7.858	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
4.576	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
2.447	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
2.203	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
1.031	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.201	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
0.161	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.070	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
-0.313	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-5.068	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-7.794	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-11.757	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-12.089	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-13.274	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-19.564	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-20.965	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
-27.566	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
-30.539	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-31.443	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-35.201	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-43.935	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-44.849	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-47.371	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-48.174	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-52.659	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-56.103	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-98.630	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
-122.766	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-150.200	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-167.196	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous