randallburns

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.144k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.022	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
94.021	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
94.021	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
91.216	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
89.261	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
86.313	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
86.313	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
85.745	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
83.872	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
82.249	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
77.770	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
77.628	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
75.394	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
73.283	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
72.905	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
72.340	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
70.270	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
69.945	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
67.664	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
67.649	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
65.553	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
64.429	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
62.855	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
62.754	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
61.202	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
58.575	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
57.692	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
56.842	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
54.170	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
54.078	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
51.810	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
51.600	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
50.444	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
49.936	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
48.518	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
47.707	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
47.525	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
45.454	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
44.232	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
44.210	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
43.814	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
40.870	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
39.602	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
37.169	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
37.121	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
36.814	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
36.685	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
35.914	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
35.214	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
35.093	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
34.174	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
34.127	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
33.555	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
30.499	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
28.093	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
27.329	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
26.731	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.273	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
25.608	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
24.840	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
23.474	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
21.390	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
20.939	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
19.782	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
17.630	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
17.629	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
17.626	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
17.626	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
17.626	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
17.625	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
17.625	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
17.368	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
17.367	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
17.367	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
17.367	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
17.364	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
17.364	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
17.102	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
17.099	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
16.932	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
16.833	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
16.832	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
16.697	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
16.651	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
16.292	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
16.289	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
16.280	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
16.280	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
16.141	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
15.956	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
15.956	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
15.956	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
15.956	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
15.781	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
15.781	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
15.737	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
15.733	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
15.713	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
15.705	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
15.621	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
15.529	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
15.356	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
15.356	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
15.170	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
15.013	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
15.013	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
15.013	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
14.753	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
14.488	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
14.471	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
14.292	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
14.269	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
14.258	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2022)	Continuous
13.949	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
13.400	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
12.241	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
12.140	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
11.201	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
11.181	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
8.299	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
7.594	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
7.080	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
6.861	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
6.519	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
6.109	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
5.814	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
4.921	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
4.831	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
4.691	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.271	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
3.433	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
3.263	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.026	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
2.906	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
1.866	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
1.858	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
1.486	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
1.460	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
0.966	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
0.808	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.552	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
0.155	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
-	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-0.000	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-0.644	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-1.868	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-2.659	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-2.830	When will the 30-days Google Trends interest for the term "China protests" peak?	Continuous
-3.776	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
-5.763	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-6.707	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
-9.343	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-9.395	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
-21.977	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-25.133	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-29.604	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-31.073	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
-32.794	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-36.725	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-39.849	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-40.523	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
-43.400	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
-47.151	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-50.890	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-64.182	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-69.135	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
-98.176	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-108.309	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-124.718	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-146.394	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
-209.222	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
-215.746	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-234.714	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-241.161	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-305.598	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary