randallburns

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.043k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
140.164	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
99.144	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
98.467	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
95.387	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
92.522	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
90.942	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
89.227	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
88.585	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
87.858	What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023)	Continuous
87.836	What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024)	Continuous
84.771	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
84.204	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
83.899	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
83.233	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
83.074	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
81.512	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
80.746	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
79.554	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
79.434	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
78.546	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
77.795	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
76.880	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
75.238	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
74.649	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
74.429	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
74.429	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
74.321	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
73.456	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
72.475	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
72.047	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
71.378	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
71.261	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
70.147	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
69.471	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
68.145	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
65.453	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
64.504	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
64.066	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
63.860	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
63.641	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
62.814	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
62.491	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
61.157	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
57.005	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
54.768	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
54.280	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
50.971	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
50.646	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
50.287	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
49.293	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
49.200	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
48.107	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
48.107	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
48.107	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
47.937	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
47.755	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
47.755	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
47.755	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
47.754	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
46.462	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
46.370	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
46.019	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
45.947	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
43.384	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
42.846	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
42.628	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
41.808	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
41.428	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
40.407	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
40.328	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
39.576	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
38.183	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
37.639	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
37.216	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
35.787	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
35.333	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
35.104	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
34.916	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
34.809	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
33.045	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
32.667	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
31.673	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
30.106	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
28.304	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
27.169	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
25.906	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
25.705	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
25.288	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
22.098	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
21.429	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
21.272	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
21.107	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
20.936	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
20.726	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
20.599	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
20.329	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
18.997	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
18.862	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
17.909	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
17.471	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
16.863	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
16.726	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
14.209	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
13.977	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
13.975	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
13.687	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
12.529	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
10.035	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
9.701	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
9.425	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
8.781	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
8.626	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
8.400	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
8.131	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
7.257	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
7.149	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
6.769	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
4.674	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
3.754	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
2.937	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
2.857	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
2.493	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
2.129	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
1.778	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
1.575	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
0.513	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
0.243	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-0.112	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-0.130	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-0.240	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-1.407	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-1.411	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-1.477	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-4.920	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-5.310	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
-7.654	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.411	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-10.957	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-11.550	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-13.282	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-13.508	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-14.862	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-17.836	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
-20.969	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-22.208	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-23.172	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-23.816	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-27.110	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-27.665	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-27.744	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
-28.495	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-32.166	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-33.416	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
-38.081	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-40.082	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-47.239	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-53.200	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-55.091	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
-55.132	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-57.306	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-59.761	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-73.521	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
-77.573	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-82.956	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-93.973	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-99.526	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-100.697	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-111.877	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-113.142	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-152.290	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-179.118	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-180.271	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-193.476	What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-205.235	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-215.884	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous