nextbigfuture

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.942k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
149.652	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
115.148	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
98.134	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
97.963	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
97.961	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
97.730	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
96.876	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
94.640	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
93.103	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
89.853	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
88.519	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
85.168	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
84.654	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
80.538	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
80.374	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
79.983	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
79.290	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
78.581	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
78.208	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
77.614	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
77.613	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
77.613	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
76.354	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
74.743	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
74.468	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
72.928	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
71.675	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
71.358	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
70.420	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
66.870	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
65.664	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
63.626	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
60.034	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
58.492	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
58.249	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
58.061	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
57.987	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
56.330	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
55.214	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
54.653	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
54.140	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
53.891	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
52.546	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
52.036	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
50.693	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
50.390	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
50.310	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
50.232	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
49.644	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.481	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
48.063	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
46.995	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
46.287	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
46.048	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
44.651	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
44.545	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
44.229	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
43.387	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
42.762	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
42.660	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
42.195	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
41.249	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
41.248	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell)	Binary
41.248	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton)	Binary
41.041	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
40.016	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
39.962	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
36.945	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
35.306	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
34.635	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
33.889	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
33.558	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
32.748	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc)	Binary
32.650	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
32.593	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
32.385	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
31.430	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
31.327	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
30.548	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
28.152	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
26.792	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
26.376	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
25.151	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
24.775	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
24.413	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
24.327	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
23.300	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
21.696	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
20.366	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
18.872	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
18.813	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
17.848	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
16.431	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
15.912	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2022)	Continuous
15.683	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
15.626	How many new Pokemon will Pokemon Scarlet and Violet introduce?	Continuous
15.598	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
15.547	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (66)	Binary
15.474	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (64)	Binary
14.815	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
14.637	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (65)	Binary
14.442	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
14.134	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
13.597	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (63)	Binary
12.900	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
12.427	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
11.914	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
11.425	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
10.953	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
10.766	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
10.563	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
9.885	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
9.814	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
9.279	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
8.939	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
8.815	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (61)	Binary
8.484	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
8.221	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
7.283	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
6.584	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
5.661	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
5.231	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
5.219	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
4.924	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
4.386	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
4.162	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
3.839	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.565	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
2.588	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
2.268	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
1.436	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
1.423	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.725	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
0.519	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30)	Continuous
0.235	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
0.126	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-2.046	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-2.226	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (62)	Binary
-2.640	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-3.676	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (November 2022)	Continuous
-5.142	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
-5.446	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-6.956	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
-13.183	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-13.391	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-15.469	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
-17.341	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
-20.798	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-24.654	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-25.455	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-51.569	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-72.278	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (May 14)	Continuous
-111.186	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-164.839	How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022?	Continuous