| 145.646 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 99.532 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 99.470 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 98.980 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 98.951 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 98.951 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.734 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 98.683 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 98.621 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 98.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 98.543 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 98.499 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 98.431 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 98.431 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 98.431 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 98.431 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 98.396 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 98.251 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 98.113 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 97.895 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.894 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.597 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 97.284 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 95.920 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.919 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.637 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.315 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 94.944 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 94.863 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.682 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.525 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 94.525 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 94.525 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 94.525 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 94.525 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 94.525 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 94.525 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 94.524 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 94.004 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 93.837 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 93.538 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 93.071 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 92.129 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.120 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 92.120 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 92.112 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 92.023 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 91.961 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 91.885 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 91.726 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 91.718 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 91.249 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 91.249 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 91.241 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 91.241 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 91.241 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 91.241 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 91.241 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 91.241 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 91.239 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 91.094 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 90.941 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 90.742 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 89.912 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 89.524 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 89.499 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 89.499 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 88.555 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 88.242 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 88.148 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| 87.728 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 87.106 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 86.853 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 86.633 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 86.021 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 85.678 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.567 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 84.832 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 83.820 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 83.815 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 83.102 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 82.956 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 82.281 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 82.204 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 82.103 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 82.103 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 82.103 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 82.103 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 81.362 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.945 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 80.731 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 80.341 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 79.860 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 79.790 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 79.775 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 79.650 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 78.628 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 78.576 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 78.576 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 78.523 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 78.471 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 78.471 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 78.471 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 78.471 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 78.471 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 78.418 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 78.366 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 78.261 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 78.261 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 78.261 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 78.261 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 78.094 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 78.075 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 78.075 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 77.834 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 77.731 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 77.230 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 76.725 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 76.686 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 76.658 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 76.650 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 76.373 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 76.368 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 76.302 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 75.980 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| 75.777 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 75.556 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 75.524 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 75.365 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 74.341 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 74.328 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 74.110 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 73.978 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 73.791 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 72.470 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.470 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 72.158 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 71.821 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 71.479 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 71.315 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 71.158 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 70.966 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 70.931 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 70.818 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 70.694 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 70.661 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 70.637 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 70.346 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 70.305 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 70.022 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| 69.550 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 69.141 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 68.797 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 68.284 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 67.937 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 67.222 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 65.782 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 65.678 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 65.677 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 64.632 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 64.378 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 63.918 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 63.766 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 63.723 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 63.723 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 61.833 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 61.638 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 61.355 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 61.315 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 61.178 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 61.123 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 61.122 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 61.074 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 60.678 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 60.659 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 60.068 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 60.068 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 59.539 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 58.854 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 58.731 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 58.665 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 58.665 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 58.665 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 58.665 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 58.665 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 58.665 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 58.665 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 58.537 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 58.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 58.328 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 57.393 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 57.309 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 57.249 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 57.070 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 56.846 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 56.846 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 56.056 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 55.981 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 54.531 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 54.385 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 54.217 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 53.920 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 53.442 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 53.372 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 52.388 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 52.278 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 52.044 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.741 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 51.543 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 51.540 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 51.540 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 51.421 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 51.376 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 51.367 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.306 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 51.097 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 50.727 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 50.544 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 50.286 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 50.107 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 49.965 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 49.586 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 48.577 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 48.139 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 47.754 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 47.543 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.359 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 46.498 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 46.397 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 45.293 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 45.158 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 44.923 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 44.150 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 43.721 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 43.687 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 43.687 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 43.104 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 42.989 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 42.983 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 42.684 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 42.654 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 42.654 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 42.654 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 42.562 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 42.345 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 42.345 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 42.153 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 41.651 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 41.120 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 40.978 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 40.978 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 40.978 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 40.978 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 40.919 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 40.874 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 40.874 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 40.874 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 40.744 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 40.576 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 40.501 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 40.391 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 40.367 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 40.348 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 39.716 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 39.654 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 38.954 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 38.350 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 38.321 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 37.973 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| 37.816 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 37.601 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 37.411 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 36.962 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 36.766 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 36.741 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 36.400 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 36.183 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 36.175 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 35.839 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 35.658 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 35.595 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 35.585 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 35.543 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.488 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 34.864 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 34.421 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 33.963 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 33.529 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 33.372 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 33.284 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 33.079 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 32.513 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 31.556 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 31.517 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 31.468 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 31.312 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 31.174 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 31.099 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 30.842 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 30.063 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 30.006 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 29.694 | What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 29.626 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 29.447 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 28.562 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 28.443 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 28.433 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 28.295 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 27.685 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 27.685 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 27.490 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 27.391 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 27.091 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 26.672 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 26.667 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 26.105 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 25.908 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 25.735 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 25.235 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 23.505 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 23.282 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 22.677 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 22.626 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 22.592 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 22.288 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 22.100 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 22.009 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| 21.869 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.535 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 21.289 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.588 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 19.118 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 18.854 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 18.851 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 18.750 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 18.505 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 18.504 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 18.271 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 18.042 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 18.042 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.515 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.499 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 17.036 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| 16.667 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
| 16.180 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
| 15.995 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 15.841 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| 15.633 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 15.359 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 14.903 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 14.706 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 14.573 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 13.923 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 13.916 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 13.404 | How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 13.271 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 13.250 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.166 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 12.315 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 12.081 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 12.081 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 11.984 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 11.772 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 11.618 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 11.618 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 11.113 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 10.855 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 10.606 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 10.408 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 9.895 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 9.876 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 9.160 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 9.086 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 8.917 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 8.851 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? | Continuous |
| 8.707 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 8.260 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 8.154 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 8.131 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 8.001 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 7.799 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 7.696 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 7.683 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 7.677 | By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 7.398 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 7.381 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.381 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.341 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.243 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 7.217 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 7.187 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.113 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.071 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.885 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 6.557 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| 6.539 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 6.509 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.255 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.571 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 5.557 | What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 5.499 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis) | Continuous |
| 5.494 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 5.248 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 5.162 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 5.140 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 5.057 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.057 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.035 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 5.035 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.035 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.857 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.793 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.793 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.743 | When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire? | Continuous |
| 4.455 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 4.325 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 4.268 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 4.249 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 4.172 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.124 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 4.113 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 3.870 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 3.861 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.788 | When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land? | Continuous |
| 3.730 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson) | Continuous |
| 3.628 | How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report? | Continuous |
| 3.609 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 3.609 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 3.604 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 3.599 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 3.576 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.533 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.993 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.954 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP) | Continuous |
| 2.863 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin) | Continuous |
| 2.675 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 2.630 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.598 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 2.542 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Continuous |
| 2.335 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
| 2.303 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 2.298 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 2.268 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 2.121 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 1.895 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.866 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 1.784 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 1.758 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 1.753 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 1.616 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 1.272 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| 0.835 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.830 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 0.607 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.596 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.588 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.451 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.239 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| 0.209 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| 0.203 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.185 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 0.181 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.135 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.052 | Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan? | Binary |
| 0.015 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | Binary |
| -0.052 | By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? | Continuous |
| -0.217 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -0.275 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -0.416 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| -1.163 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -1.936 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -2.613 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -4.740 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | Binary |
| -4.865 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -6.527 | When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? | Continuous |
| -9.356 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -9.367 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | Continuous |
| -11.343 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| -12.685 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -15.235 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -17.933 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -17.975 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -19.562 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -21.764 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| -25.171 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| -25.246 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| -28.100 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -32.199 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -35.181 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -37.895 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -43.370 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -46.741 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -61.617 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -71.715 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -73.051 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -76.096 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -82.842 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -83.229 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| -112.468 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -114.675 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| -138.966 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -170.884 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023? | Binary |
| -190.544 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -191.482 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -199.613 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -214.432 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -215.383 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -220.215 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -260.936 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -326.812 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -338.764 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -460.472 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |