Skapis9999

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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14.39k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
136.482	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
98.559	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
98.559	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
98.512	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
98.358	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
98.354	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
98.352	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
98.352	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
98.194	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
98.143	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
98.129	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
97.914	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
97.865	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
97.820	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
97.404	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
97.198	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
97.146	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
97.094	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
96.923	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
96.838	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
96.155	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
95.836	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)	Binary
94.102	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
93.476	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
93.236	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
92.337	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
92.083	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
91.525	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
91.525	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
91.345	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
90.560	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
90.560	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
90.559	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
87.246	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
85.570	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
85.092	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
85.035	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
85.035	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
85.035	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
84.330	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain)	Binary
84.309	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
84.285	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
83.941	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
83.689	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
83.689	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
83.509	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
83.473	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
83.161	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
83.161	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
83.161	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
82.919	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
82.745	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
82.271	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
81.623	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
81.341	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
81.329	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
81.278	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
80.295	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
80.255	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
80.062	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
80.062	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
79.927	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
79.890	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
79.880	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
79.382	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
79.053	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
78.996	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
78.426	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
78.264	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
77.823	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
76.443	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
76.299	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
75.108	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
74.945	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
74.654	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
74.654	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
74.654	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
74.654	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
74.654	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
74.654	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
74.654	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
74.612	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid)	Binary
74.607	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona)	Binary
74.564	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
74.001	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
73.556	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
73.550	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
73.200	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
72.560	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
72.345	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
71.945	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
71.575	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
71.326	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
71.321	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich)	Binary
71.003	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
70.856	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
70.290	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
68.404	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
68.404	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
68.404	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
68.356	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
68.114	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
66.037	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
66.037	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
65.844	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
65.703	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
65.278	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
65.214	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
63.890	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
61.632	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
60.879	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
60.467	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
60.467	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
60.467	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
60.467	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
60.467	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
59.596	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal)	Binary
59.336	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
59.336	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
59.336	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
59.336	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
59.336	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
59.336	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
59.336	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
59.086	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
58.912	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
58.898	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan)	Binary
58.865	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV)	Binary
58.706	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
58.306	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli)	Binary
58.306	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto)	Binary
58.123	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
57.906	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
57.280	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
56.880	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
56.880	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
56.858	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
56.549	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves)	Binary
56.530	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers)	Binary
56.201	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
56.010	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen)	Binary
55.905	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
55.547	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig)	Binary
55.446	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
55.250	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
55.085	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad)	Binary
55.084	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio)	Binary
54.844	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
54.701	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
54.701	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
54.488	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
54.289	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx)	Binary
53.983	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
53.968	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
53.244	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks)	Binary
52.919	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder)	Binary
52.859	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
51.899	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
51.693	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
51.514	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
51.379	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
51.143	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
50.851	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
50.159	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
49.906	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
49.276	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
49.275	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
49.272	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
49.272	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
49.269	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
49.140	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever)	Binary
49.140	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury)	Binary
49.135	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
49.069	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
48.824	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream)	Binary
48.044	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks)	Binary
48.044	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics)	Binary
48.044	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings)	Binary
47.590	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic)	Binary
47.415	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky)	Binary
47.276	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
47.276	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
47.276	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
47.276	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
47.276	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
47.138	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
46.931	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
46.878	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
46.706	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
46.518	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
46.323	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
46.088	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat)	Binary
45.917	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
45.917	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)	Binary
45.917	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
45.917	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)	Binary
45.917	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)	Binary
45.917	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
45.789	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
45.340	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
45.316	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans)	Binary
45.276	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm)	Binary
45.186	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
45.018	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
44.362	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
43.530	Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season?	Binary
42.155	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
41.399	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
41.373	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings)	Binary
41.332	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls)	Binary
41.323	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
41.322	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
41.285	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
40.740	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024))	Continuous
40.587	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks)	Binary
40.380	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
40.057	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
39.501	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
39.491	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
37.393	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
37.342	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
36.766	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets)	Binary
36.765	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets)	Binary
36.391	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
35.978	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
35.240	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
35.200	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
35.183	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
35.165	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun)	Binary
35.088	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
35.088	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
35.088	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
34.873	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
34.655	How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024))	Continuous
34.264	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
33.506	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
33.388	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
33.358	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
33.283	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
33.161	Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?	Binary
33.122	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
33.015	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
32.916	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
32.268	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors)	Binary
32.268	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz)	Binary
32.085	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
31.556	How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024))	Continuous
31.479	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
30.803	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
30.684	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets)	Binary
29.876	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
29.296	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
29.296	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
28.496	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
28.420	How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024))	Continuous
28.412	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
28.333	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
28.216	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers)	Binary
27.317	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
27.073	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
26.965	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2024)	Continuous
26.964	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
26.079	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
25.801	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
25.363	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards)	Binary
25.068	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
25.066	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons)	Binary
24.765	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024))	Continuous
24.587	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs)	Binary
24.502	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
23.287	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
23.097	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
22.635	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
22.202	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
20.822	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
20.612	Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?	Binary
20.310	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
19.901	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
19.188	How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024))	Continuous
19.176	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
19.025	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
19.024	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
19.024	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
19.024	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
19.024	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
19.024	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
19.024	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
19.017	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
19.017	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
19.017	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
19.017	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
19.017	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
19.017	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
18.768	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
18.508	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
17.877	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
17.441	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
17.441	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
17.441	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
16.743	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk)	Binary
16.743	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
16.743	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan)	Binary
16.281	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United)	Binary
16.281	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray)	Binary
16.271	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga)	Binary
16.232	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
15.331	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
15.225	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
15.182	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
13.559	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
13.391	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
13.257	What will China's total population be in these years? (2023)	Continuous
13.033	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
12.550	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
12.252	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
12.089	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
11.505	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
11.455	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
10.936	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
10.780	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
10.319	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla)	Binary
10.319	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens)	Binary
10.287	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
9.857	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda)	Binary
9.857	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord)	Binary
9.857	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic)	Binary
9.529	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
9.485	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
8.566	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
8.459	Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024?	Binary
7.965	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
7.430	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
7.269	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
7.167	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
6.875	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.701	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.306	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
5.866	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
5.193	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
4.838	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
4.603	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
4.527	Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?	Binary
4.463	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
4.272	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
4.223	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
4.223	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
4.223	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
4.223	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
4.223	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
3.986	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
3.907	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
2.796	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
2.639	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
2.587	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
2.028	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
1.804	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
1.696	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
1.519	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
1.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
0.940	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
0.848	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
0.837	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
0.781	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
0.781	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
0.781	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.781	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
0.546	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
0.541	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg)	Binary
0.506	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin)	Binary
0.506	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica)	Binary
0.446	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.438	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
0.424	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
0.342	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
0.279	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
0.263	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
0.258	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
0.180	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.159	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
0.150	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
0.108	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp)	Binary
0.100	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
0.080	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys)	Binary
-	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
-0.353	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024))	Continuous
-1.006	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
-1.276	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-3.283	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
-4.087	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
-5.581	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
-5.883	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
-6.104	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-8.661	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-10.606	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-11.185	How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-12.374	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
-12.990	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
-13.624	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
-21.080	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)	Binary
-21.473	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
-21.936	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-22.206	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-23.030	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
-24.751	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
-27.225	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-28.529	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
-29.160	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
-32.591	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty)	Binary
-36.116	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
-36.117	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
-40.470	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
-42.135	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-42.886	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
-43.397	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
-47.297	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Sheffield United)	Continuous
-48.272	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
-53.910	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-55.086	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
-57.759	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
-66.882	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-71.811	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-77.810	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
-90.304	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
-96.649	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces)	Binary
-99.693	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-99.944	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-101.239	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-114.461	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-116.565	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-118.206	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-118.551	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City)	Binary
-141.568	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-146.603	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-172.471	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-180.433	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-200.731	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
-200.747	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-212.415	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-227.274	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
-232.382	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
-260.651	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
-266.127	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-286.548	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-448.256	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary