ad42astra

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.477k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.016	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
93.538	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
93.290	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
93.130	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
93.060	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
92.733	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
92.379	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
91.404	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
90.555	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
90.465	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
89.918	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
89.831	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
89.749	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
88.202	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
88.139	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
87.187	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
86.822	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
86.822	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
86.750	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
85.798	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
85.798	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
85.460	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
85.420	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
85.420	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
84.751	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
84.445	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
84.215	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
83.866	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
83.389	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
82.835	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
82.156	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
81.661	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
80.594	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
79.915	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
79.734	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
79.083	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
79.071	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
78.940	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
78.812	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
78.806	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
78.275	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
78.256	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
78.255	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
77.877	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
77.146	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
76.393	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
75.378	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
75.331	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
74.536	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
74.387	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
71.593	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
70.720	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
69.739	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
68.687	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
66.757	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
66.072	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
65.694	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
64.043	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
61.735	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
60.499	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
58.831	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
58.470	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
58.440	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
57.341	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
55.829	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
53.210	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
49.904	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
49.076	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
47.970	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
47.228	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
45.085	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
44.611	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
43.041	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
41.515	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
39.466	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
36.986	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
36.426	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
35.222	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
33.525	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
31.123	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Richárd Rapport)	Binary
29.612	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Teimour Radjabov)	Binary
29.067	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
27.597	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.426	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
26.269	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
25.601	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
24.747	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ding Liren)	Binary
24.514	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
24.058	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
20.996	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
17.356	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
16.659	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
15.636	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
12.472	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
11.446	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
11.155	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
10.416	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.526	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.158	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
5.853	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
2.774	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
2.712	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
1.735	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
1.430	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.075	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.044	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
-0.037	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-5.307	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
-5.565	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-7.307	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-8.605	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-18.318	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-18.973	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-21.732	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-27.252	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-32.998	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-43.237	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
-44.777	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-44.913	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
-50.657	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-57.460	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-320.282	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary