jack

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.111k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
178.901	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
143.688	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
115.358	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
110.372	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
110.338	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
98.369	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
97.927	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
96.804	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
96.449	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
96.362	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
96.361	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
94.820	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
92.408	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
90.893	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
90.676	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
89.391	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
88.975	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
88.826	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
87.062	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
86.323	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
85.507	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
84.565	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
84.193	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
83.480	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
77.310	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
76.250	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
75.344	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
74.115	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
73.449	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
72.383	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
72.376	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
69.058	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
69.058	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
68.468	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
68.435	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
66.551	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
63.062	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
62.271	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
61.610	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
61.610	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
61.610	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
61.610	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
61.610	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
57.953	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
57.946	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
57.038	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
56.170	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
55.361	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
54.986	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
54.697	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
54.329	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
54.247	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
51.873	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
51.168	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
50.061	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
49.767	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
48.554	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
48.493	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
48.493	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
48.493	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
48.493	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
48.493	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
48.493	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
47.775	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
47.372	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
47.124	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
45.942	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
45.399	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
44.972	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
44.827	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
44.296	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
43.935	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
43.843	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
43.843	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
42.523	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
41.803	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
39.864	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
39.554	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
38.801	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
38.759	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
38.185	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
37.799	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
37.635	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
37.538	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
36.860	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
36.822	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
36.327	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
35.812	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
35.303	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
35.303	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
35.303	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
35.303	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
35.303	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
35.303	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
35.303	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
34.701	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
34.386	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
34.141	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
33.382	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
32.676	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
32.648	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
32.634	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
32.634	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
32.634	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
32.371	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
31.895	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
31.290	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
31.083	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
30.874	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
29.169	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
28.970	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
28.368	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
26.726	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
26.107	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
25.362	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
24.652	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
24.467	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
23.557	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
23.466	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
23.261	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
22.974	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
21.983	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
21.508	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
21.149	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
20.731	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
20.686	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
19.208	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
18.052	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
17.188	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.444	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
13.184	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
11.531	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
10.925	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
10.559	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
10.206	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
8.606	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
5.467	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
5.017	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
2.530	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
2.249	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
1.984	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.891	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
1.451	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
1.376	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
1.108	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.550	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
0.505	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
0.383	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
0.198	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
-	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-1.099	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
-1.965	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-3.887	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-4.182	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
-4.746	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-4.831	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-7.378	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-7.717	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-9.295	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-10.327	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-15.188	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-15.665	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-18.834	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-18.969	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-27.326	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-27.746	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-30.733	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-39.809	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-41.595	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-46.471	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-49.747	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-51.528	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-52.925	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-54.297	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-114.873	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-117.645	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-152.437	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary