galen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.553k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
190.982	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
104.092	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
101.878	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
95.395	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
93.182	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
92.240	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
88.776	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
86.075	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
85.840	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
84.213	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
84.057	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
83.626	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
83.168	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
81.583	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
79.508	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
76.700	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
73.779	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
73.590	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
73.480	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
73.157	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
70.794	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
69.902	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
69.720	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
68.519	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
68.424	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
68.199	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
67.222	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
67.016	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
65.536	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
65.512	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
65.193	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
62.934	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
62.609	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
60.238	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
60.192	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
57.020	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
56.506	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
55.397	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
54.950	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
54.575	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
54.007	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
53.406	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
53.358	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
52.148	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
51.912	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
51.888	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
51.781	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
49.766	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
49.181	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
48.900	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
48.276	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
47.652	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
47.311	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
47.078	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
46.926	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
45.864	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
45.771	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
45.404	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
45.300	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
43.921	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
43.583	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
43.502	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
42.910	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
42.820	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
42.337	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
42.190	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
42.140	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
41.871	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
41.210	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
41.086	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
39.909	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
39.696	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
39.248	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
38.961	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
38.744	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
38.326	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
37.401	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
35.786	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
35.744	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
35.468	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
34.835	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
34.165	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
33.612	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
33.212	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
32.957	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
32.463	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
32.203	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
32.102	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
32.029	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
31.854	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
30.869	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
30.153	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
28.998	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
28.774	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
28.312	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
27.848	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
27.530	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
27.316	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
27.292	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
26.959	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
26.742	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
26.682	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
25.631	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
23.493	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
23.490	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
22.859	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
22.743	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
22.550	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
22.549	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
21.912	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
20.943	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
20.635	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
20.366	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
20.271	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
20.223	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
19.870	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
19.281	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
19.148	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
18.513	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
18.331	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
18.146	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
17.994	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
17.320	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
16.367	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
15.517	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
15.244	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
14.730	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
14.214	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
13.982	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
13.971	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
13.808	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
13.419	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
12.795	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
11.695	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
11.122	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
10.813	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
10.392	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
10.024	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
9.996	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
9.987	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
9.538	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
8.998	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
8.705	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
8.318	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
6.768	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
5.428	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
4.567	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
4.179	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
3.893	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
2.923	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
2.607	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
2.472	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
2.287	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
1.629	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
1.603	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
1.112	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
1.013	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
0.563	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
0.222	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
0.108	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
0.103	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-0.511	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-0.666	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-0.948	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-5.029	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-5.131	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-5.673	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-6.729	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
-8.819	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-8.853	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-8.945	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-9.940	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-12.015	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-12.232	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-14.517	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-23.263	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-25.110	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-25.687	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-25.880	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-39.986	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-40.051	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-47.559	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-51.546	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-52.306	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
-62.845	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-68.176	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-70.636	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-75.462	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-77.552	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-79.609	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-103.427	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-107.366	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-137.062	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-160.265	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-161.176	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-169.239	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous