galen

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

22.29k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
133.141	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
128.090	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
124.265	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
118.283	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
114.974	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
109.483	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
106.532	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
105.018	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
103.314	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
102.099	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
98.614	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.210	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
98.178	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
97.923	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
97.466	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
97.178	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
96.732	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
96.535	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
96.505	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
96.447	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
96.352	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
96.045	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
96.028	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
95.746	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
95.706	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
95.511	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
95.427	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
95.303	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
94.900	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
94.815	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
94.521	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
94.254	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
94.025	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
93.842	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
93.836	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
93.828	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
93.756	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
93.616	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
93.587	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
93.014	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
93.012	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
92.979	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.774	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
92.684	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
92.585	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
92.474	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
91.894	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
91.847	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
91.649	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
90.913	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
90.344	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
90.214	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
89.649	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
88.945	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
88.683	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
88.489	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
88.376	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
88.172	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
88.082	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
87.733	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
87.659	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
86.895	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
86.373	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
86.200	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
86.099	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
86.083	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
85.914	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
85.883	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
85.641	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
85.165	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
84.950	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
84.349	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
84.300	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
84.040	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
83.939	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
83.857	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
83.722	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
83.710	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
82.983	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
82.115	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
81.836	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
81.776	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
81.510	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
80.907	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
80.726	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
80.621	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
80.045	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
79.997	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
79.906	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
79.443	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
79.382	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
79.102	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
79.087	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
79.087	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
78.695	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
78.611	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
78.542	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
78.330	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
77.877	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
77.777	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
77.486	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
77.271	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
77.116	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
76.863	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
76.670	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
76.484	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
76.331	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
76.283	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
76.175	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
76.024	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
75.183	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
74.962	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
74.771	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
74.615	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
74.474	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
74.403	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
74.378	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
73.688	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
73.545	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
73.535	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
73.140	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
72.921	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
72.518	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
72.064	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
72.029	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
71.693	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
71.649	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
71.587	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
71.562	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
71.172	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
71.076	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
70.579	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
70.531	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
70.415	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
70.384	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
69.696	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
68.112	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
67.976	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
66.671	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
66.432	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
66.398	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
66.391	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
66.304	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
66.123	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
66.103	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
66.072	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
66.053	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
65.930	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
65.908	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
65.656	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
65.654	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
65.464	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
65.403	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
65.346	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
65.258	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
65.235	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
65.217	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
64.835	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
64.802	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
64.463	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
64.447	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
64.125	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
64.071	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
63.911	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
63.471	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
63.149	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
63.110	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
63.033	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
62.998	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
62.980	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
62.963	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
62.649	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
62.598	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
62.510	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
62.472	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
61.666	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
60.862	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
60.711	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
60.703	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
60.690	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
60.581	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
60.031	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
59.760	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
59.275	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
59.178	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
58.525	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
58.330	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
58.002	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
57.880	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
57.667	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
57.646	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
57.524	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
57.410	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
56.918	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
56.783	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
56.531	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
56.450	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
56.263	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
56.227	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
56.220	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
55.956	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
55.639	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
55.026	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
54.706	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
54.540	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
54.421	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
54.367	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
54.173	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
53.106	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
53.012	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
52.860	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
52.761	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
52.567	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
52.241	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
51.897	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
51.693	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
51.464	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
51.354	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
51.267	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
51.051	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
50.910	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
50.845	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
50.091	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
50.033	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
49.830	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
49.750	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
48.958	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
48.558	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6)	Binary
48.475	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
48.283	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
48.081	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
47.989	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
47.703	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4)	Binary
47.422	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
47.325	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5)	Binary
47.151	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
46.983	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
46.694	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
46.569	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
46.367	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
46.037	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
45.986	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
45.711	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
45.361	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
44.767	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
44.610	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
44.571	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
44.515	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
44.478	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
44.128	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
44.037	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
43.727	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
43.487	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
43.449	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
42.894	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
42.889	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
42.608	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
42.431	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
42.411	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
42.386	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
42.276	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
42.189	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
42.164	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
42.079	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
41.981	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
41.913	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
41.790	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
41.698	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
41.475	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
41.282	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
41.137	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
41.084	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
40.935	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
40.877	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3)	Binary
40.709	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
40.289	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
40.257	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
40.142	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
39.856	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
39.819	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
39.667	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
39.603	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
39.416	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
38.973	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
38.738	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
38.713	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
38.617	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
38.541	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
38.480	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
38.223	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
38.188	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
38.123	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
38.033	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
37.877	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
37.853	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
37.722	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
37.677	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
37.417	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
37.407	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
37.273	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
37.085	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
36.990	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
36.911	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
36.852	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
36.761	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
36.456	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
36.319	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
36.136	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
35.745	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
35.709	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
35.587	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
35.197	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
35.173	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx)	Binary
35.160	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
34.749	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
34.723	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
34.402	Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?	Binary
34.386	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
34.305	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
34.280	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
34.128	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
33.829	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
33.824	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
33.697	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
33.659	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
33.611	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
33.568	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
33.490	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2)	Binary
33.296	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
33.188	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
33.077	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
33.067	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
32.965	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
32.892	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
32.814	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
32.801	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
32.794	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
32.791	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
32.789	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
32.778	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
32.771	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
32.764	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
32.691	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
32.681	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
32.653	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
32.648	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
32.617	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
32.610	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
32.596	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
32.564	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
32.540	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
32.527	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
32.493	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
32.491	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
32.489	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
32.405	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
32.373	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
32.363	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
32.349	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
32.295	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
32.160	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
32.116	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
32.004	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
31.943	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
31.873	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
31.729	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
31.659	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
31.659	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
31.621	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
31.556	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
31.423	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever)	Binary
31.282	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
31.157	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
31.145	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream)	Binary
31.103	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
31.080	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1)	Binary
31.054	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
30.743	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
30.727	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
30.691	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
30.589	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
30.540	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks)	Binary
30.449	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
30.441	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
30.325	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
30.297	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
30.263	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
30.173	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
30.147	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings)	Binary
30.104	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
30.090	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky)	Binary
30.022	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
29.955	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury)	Binary
29.880	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
29.840	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
29.838	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
29.836	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
29.836	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun)	Binary
29.794	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
29.794	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
29.791	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
29.782	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
29.659	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
29.579	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
29.236	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
29.139	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
29.074	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
29.068	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
29.008	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics)	Binary
28.997	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
28.988	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
28.706	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
28.637	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
28.569	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
28.557	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
28.417	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
28.351	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
28.329	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
28.220	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm)	Binary
27.976	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
27.885	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
27.864	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
27.851	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
27.835	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
27.728	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
27.721	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
27.674	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
27.528	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
27.509	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
27.291	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
27.254	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
27.247	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
27.224	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
27.201	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
26.956	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
26.821	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
26.719	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
26.631	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
26.482	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
26.191	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
26.043	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
25.756	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
25.636	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
25.446	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
25.440	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
25.423	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
25.316	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
24.917	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
24.829	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
24.542	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
24.532	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
24.256	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
24.210	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
23.980	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
23.882	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
23.626	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
23.048	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
22.841	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
22.808	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
22.733	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.503	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
22.451	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
21.913	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
21.716	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
21.703	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
21.611	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
21.323	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
21.290	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
21.186	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
21.095	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
20.996	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
20.849	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
20.155	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
19.861	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
19.776	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
19.765	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
19.680	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
19.268	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
18.741	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
18.326	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
18.241	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
18.073	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
17.817	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
17.807	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
17.790	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
17.719	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
17.641	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
17.566	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
17.437	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.259	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
16.946	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
16.890	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
16.136	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
16.128	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
15.601	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
15.573	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
15.368	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
15.301	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
15.282	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
14.915	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
14.294	Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?	Binary
14.054	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
13.881	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
13.836	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
13.814	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
13.567	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
12.499	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
12.409	Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?	Binary
12.387	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
11.831	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
11.705	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
11.611	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
11.547	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
11.461	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
11.317	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
11.250	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
11.135	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
11.098	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
11.025	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
10.584	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
10.580	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
10.518	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
10.424	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
10.089	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
10.081	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
10.070	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
9.795	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
9.210	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
9.094	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
8.914	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
8.670	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
8.629	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
8.570	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
8.564	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
8.233	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
8.081	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
8.080	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
8.042	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
8.010	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
8.005	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
7.869	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
7.784	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
7.729	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
7.465	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
7.403	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
7.398	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
7.259	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
7.062	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
6.910	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
6.841	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
6.841	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
6.834	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
6.686	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
6.629	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
6.577	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
6.559	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
6.520	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
6.510	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
6.351	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
6.333	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
6.207	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
6.194	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
5.832	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
5.789	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
5.662	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
5.637	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
5.630	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
5.473	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
5.469	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
5.275	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
5.229	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
5.196	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
5.139	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
5.025	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
4.999	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
4.912	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
4.784	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
4.753	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
4.742	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
4.669	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
4.544	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
4.507	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
4.474	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
4.221	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
4.219	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
4.020	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
3.912	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
3.606	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
3.505	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
3.445	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
3.417	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
3.205	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
3.055	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
2.917	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
2.842	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
2.834	Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?	Binary
2.797	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
2.789	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
2.674	Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?	Binary
2.379	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
2.125	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
1.934	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
1.732	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
1.506	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
1.500	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
1.410	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
1.375	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
1.287	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
1.181	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
1.058	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.917	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.591	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
0.441	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
0.419	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.154	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
0.021	Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?	Binary
-	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
-0.594	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
-0.861	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-0.984	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-1.524	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-1.935	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-1.966	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
-2.017	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-2.131	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-2.638	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-2.666	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-2.754	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-2.798	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-2.873	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-4.348	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-4.449	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-4.454	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
-4.877	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-5.107	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-5.311	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-5.320	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-5.582	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
-5.610	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
-6.510	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-7.391	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-7.399	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-7.725	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
-8.361	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-8.432	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-8.596	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-9.459	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-9.484	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-9.707	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-10.349	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-10.449	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-10.528	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-10.709	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-12.448	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
-12.568	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-13.592	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
-13.953	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-14.871	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-15.106	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-15.267	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
-16.260	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-17.002	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-17.115	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-17.152	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-18.108	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-19.719	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-20.112	Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31)	Binary
-21.953	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces)	Binary
-23.180	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-23.919	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-24.084	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-24.200	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-25.983	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-27.533	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-27.825	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-27.963	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-29.489	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
-29.761	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
-29.903	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-31.187	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-33.109	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
-33.359	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-35.124	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-36.123	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-36.384	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty)	Binary
-37.365	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-38.834	Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.880	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-40.403	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
-40.500	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-41.944	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-44.647	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
-44.676	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-44.907	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-45.269	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-47.873	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-49.119	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-49.990	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-51.137	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-53.064	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-53.508	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-57.632	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-59.461	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-60.116	What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-61.023	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-61.266	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-67.174	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-67.399	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-69.273	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-73.152	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-74.536	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-82.107	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-85.627	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-105.184	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-113.145	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-121.165	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-122.507	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-135.274	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-140.104	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-165.941	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-174.077	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-175.424	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-176.421	What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-183.391	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-265.371	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary