Vang

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.844k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
122.543	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
116.469	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
112.289	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
111.687	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
108.986	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
108.150	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
103.680	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
103.552	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
103.540	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
100.724	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
98.227	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
97.035	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
96.942	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
95.922	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
95.158	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
93.654	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
88.581	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
88.208	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
88.091	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
86.697	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
85.518	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
84.584	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
82.135	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
81.633	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
81.592	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
81.592	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
79.577	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
76.046	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
75.694	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
75.217	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
75.021	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
74.568	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
74.190	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
73.054	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
72.507	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
72.226	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
71.924	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
71.579	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
71.452	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
71.010	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
70.865	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
70.698	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
70.238	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
70.122	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
67.894	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
67.001	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
66.669	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
66.410	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
66.072	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
65.739	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
64.896	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
64.820	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
64.516	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
63.897	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
62.796	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
62.572	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
62.477	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
62.330	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
61.843	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
61.732	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
61.477	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
60.508	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
59.952	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
59.846	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
59.744	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
59.362	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
58.751	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
58.615	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
58.091	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
57.469	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
57.430	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
56.899	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
56.516	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
56.176	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
55.352	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
54.384	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
54.220	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
54.013	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
54.000	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
53.618	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
53.054	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
52.985	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
52.853	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
52.116	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
51.699	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
51.684	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
51.681	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
51.255	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
51.069	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
50.567	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
50.559	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
50.122	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
49.875	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
49.760	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
49.727	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
49.181	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
48.811	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
48.740	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
48.646	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
48.299	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
47.779	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
47.335	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
47.234	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
47.047	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
46.257	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
44.508	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
44.412	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
43.777	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
43.734	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
41.615	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
40.999	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
40.015	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
39.514	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
39.066	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
37.325	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
36.760	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
36.518	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
36.148	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
34.672	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
33.250	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
33.003	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
32.909	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
32.889	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
32.250	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
32.226	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
31.881	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
31.604	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
30.060	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
29.306	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
28.798	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
28.229	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
26.612	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
25.084	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
24.823	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
24.459	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
23.327	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
23.165	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
22.622	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
21.560	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
21.258	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
21.020	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
20.765	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
20.499	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
20.341	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
20.074	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
19.897	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
19.004	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
18.416	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
17.673	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
17.197	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
17.117	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
15.746	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
14.969	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
14.733	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
14.145	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
13.903	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
13.633	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
12.693	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
12.353	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
12.145	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
8.543	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
4.411	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
3.121	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
2.891	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
2.209	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
1.133	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
0.111	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-1.262	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-1.726	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-2.160	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-3.678	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-3.726	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-4.194	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-4.680	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-5.397	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-8.449	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-9.792	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-16.771	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-18.272	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-18.420	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-19.040	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-20.157	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-21.223	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-24.419	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-24.730	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-26.465	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-27.273	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-29.536	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-31.028	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-32.574	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-33.386	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-52.703	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-57.521	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-59.121	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-59.517	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-64.654	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-66.654	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
-69.762	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-76.541	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-79.917	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-80.467	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
-81.028	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-94.501	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-109.230	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-112.766	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-130.998	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-142.778	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-196.608	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous