| 175.149 | What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 137.421 | When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions? | Continuous |
| 134.856 | Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft? | Continuous |
| 121.656 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan) | Continuous |
| 121.006 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
| 118.556 | What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2023) | Continuous |
| 105.914 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
| 99.032 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 98.326 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.716 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
| 97.427 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.362 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.228 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.006 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.918 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
| 95.290 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.288 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
| 95.257 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
| 95.026 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 94.801 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
| 94.432 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
| 94.354 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
| 94.313 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 94.257 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
| 93.040 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
| 92.650 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 92.472 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
| 92.217 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 92.099 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
| 92.059 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
| 91.983 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 91.872 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
| 91.863 | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 91.715 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
| 91.052 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
| 90.702 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
| 90.667 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
| 90.566 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
| 90.096 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
| 89.909 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
| 89.828 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
| 89.652 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
| 89.208 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 88.933 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.258 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
| 86.973 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
| 86.668 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
| 86.559 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 86.555 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
| 85.498 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
| 84.788 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 84.698 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 84.679 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 84.468 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
| 83.751 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 83.344 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia) | Continuous |
| 82.999 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
| 82.692 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
| 82.610 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 82.469 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 82.343 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
| 82.049 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
| 81.953 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
| 81.868 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 80.797 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
| 80.445 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 80.441 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti) | Continuous |
| 80.305 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz) | Binary |
| 79.845 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
| 79.743 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ) | Binary |
| 79.434 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
| 79.348 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 79.341 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List) | Binary |
| 79.341 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist) | Binary |
| 79.233 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 79.211 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
| 79.149 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
| 79.146 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 78.992 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
| 78.845 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 78.639 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas) | Binary |
| 78.483 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 77.866 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 77.214 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 77.204 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 76.941 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| 76.902 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 76.836 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 76.759 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 76.606 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu) | Binary |
| 75.897 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 75.787 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan) | Continuous |
| 75.619 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 75.608 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
| 75.574 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 75.522 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 75.316 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
| 75.275 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.148 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 75.084 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
| 75.041 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 74.665 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| 74.660 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor) | Binary |
| 74.456 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
| 74.317 | How much total trade volume (in 2021 USD) will Israel and Turkey trade in 2022? | Continuous |
| 74.288 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 74.130 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
| 74.087 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Binary |
| 74.087 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Binary |
| 74.058 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| 73.915 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 73.887 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 73.853 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope) | Binary |
| 73.809 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
| 73.789 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Binary |
| 73.732 | Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election? | Binary |
| 73.698 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| 73.359 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 73.146 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 73.087 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| 72.856 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Binary |
| 72.600 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 72.600 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 72.523 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 72.480 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 72.452 | What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 72.423 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Binary |
| 72.423 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Binary |
| 72.423 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Binary |
| 72.423 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Binary |
| 72.307 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Binary |
| 71.956 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
| 71.735 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 71.526 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 71.406 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 71.220 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
| 71.137 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| 70.999 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti) | Binary |
| 70.883 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
| 70.630 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
| 70.289 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 70.186 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 70.077 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
| 70.049 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 69.973 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 69.920 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit) | Binary |
| 69.480 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 68.702 | How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing? | Continuous |
| 68.325 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 68.200 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 67.827 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 67.800 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
| 67.734 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
| 67.350 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy) | Binary |
| 67.021 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
| 66.819 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 66.706 | Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.613 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 66.050 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
| 65.820 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
| 65.440 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 64.717 | How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022? | Continuous |
| 64.171 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 63.365 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 63.186 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 62.290 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 62.035 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
| 61.988 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 61.902 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
| 61.800 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 61.496 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
| 61.489 | Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 60.772 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 60.316 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 60.302 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
| 60.247 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 60.233 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking) | Binary |
| 59.803 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 59.743 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka) | Continuous |
| 59.499 | How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024? | Continuous |
| 59.177 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 59.136 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| 58.975 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
| 58.684 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 57.334 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 57.071 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 56.567 | Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021? | Binary |
| 56.034 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| 56.034 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 55.171 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 54.835 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
| 54.690 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon) | Continuous |
| 54.636 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
| 54.329 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment) | Binary |
| 54.075 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | Binary |
| 51.983 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
| 51.880 | What percent of UK will have long-COVID (12 weeks after infection) on the following dates? (December 31, 2022) | Continuous |
| 50.941 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 50.303 | What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2022) | Continuous |
| 49.578 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda) | Continuous |
| 49.473 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 48.867 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
| 48.611 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White) | Binary |
| 48.075 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 46.987 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 46.722 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
| 46.605 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 46.248 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid) | Binary |
| 45.392 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 45.097 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 44.985 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 44.555 | What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi? | Continuous |
| 44.241 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
| 44.072 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 44.041 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
| 42.507 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
| 41.554 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 40.708 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 40.685 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.416 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 40.261 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.211 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 39.046 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
| 37.498 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
| 37.023 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 37.007 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection? | Binary |
| 36.873 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 36.844 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
| 36.319 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 36.247 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
| 35.239 | What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023? | Continuous |
| 34.990 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.916 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.283 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation) | Binary |
| 34.003 | What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics? | Continuous |
| 33.262 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 33.128 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 32.224 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 31.918 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 31.905 | In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell? | Continuous |
| 31.634 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 31.085 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Continuous |
| 30.823 | Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022? | Binary |
| 30.751 | Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 30.456 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 30.070 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 30.068 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
| 29.960 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
| 29.343 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 28.935 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
| 28.581 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
| 28.116 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 27.912 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 27.704 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| 27.569 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
| 27.108 | How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.990 | What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023) | Continuous |
| 26.947 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
| 26.221 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| 26.117 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 25.748 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 25.225 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
| 24.102 | How many satellites will be deployed in 2022? | Continuous |
| 23.314 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline) | Binary |
| 23.087 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 23.019 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
| 22.785 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 22.374 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 21.944 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
| 21.696 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
| 21.236 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
| 21.045 | How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023? | Continuous |
| 20.864 | Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? | Binary |
| 20.798 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
| 20.439 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| 20.178 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
| 20.029 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 19.976 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
| 19.663 | What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 19.550 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 19.494 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| 19.004 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| 17.859 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
| 17.723 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 16.128 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 15.512 | How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)? | Continuous |
| 15.381 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 14.965 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 13.141 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023) | Continuous |
| 13.040 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
| 12.844 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 11.907 | In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities? | Continuous |
| 11.633 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 11.518 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 11.335 | Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023? | Binary |
| 11.031 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 10.440 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Continuous |
| 10.418 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| 10.409 | How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022? | Continuous |
| 9.995 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
| 9.923 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
| 9.745 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
| 9.601 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 9.557 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
| 9.449 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 9.375 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
| 8.604 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 8.054 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 7.842 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | Binary |
| 7.244 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023) | Continuous |
| 7.089 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
| 7.066 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
| 5.707 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 5.613 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 5.371 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 5.177 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
| 4.922 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
| 4.796 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 4.690 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
| 4.433 | Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.172 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| 3.973 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
| 3.963 | When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA? | Continuous |
| 3.944 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
| 2.563 | Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.226 | Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public) | Binary |
| 1.663 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 1.117 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
| 1.107 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
| 1.023 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
| 0.938 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 0.894 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
| 0.838 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
| 0.838 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
| 0.838 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
| 0.821 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
| -0.124 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
| -0.127 | When will New York City's subway ridership return to pre-COVID pandemic levels for the first time? | Continuous |
| -0.354 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| -0.760 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
| -1.785 | Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report? | Binary |
| -2.734 | Will Ukrainian military forces strike targets more than 10 kilometers inside Russian territory? | Continuous |
| -3.422 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| -4.022 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -4.884 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| -4.891 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
| -5.096 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
| -6.507 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -6.608 | What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022? | Continuous |
| -7.538 | Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024? | Binary |
| -9.299 | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024? | Binary |
| -10.057 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
| -10.591 | When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day? | Continuous |
| -10.928 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor? | Continuous |
| -12.421 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -12.767 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023) | Continuous |
| -12.830 | What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| -15.427 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -17.153 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
| -17.311 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
| -17.475 | How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024? | Continuous |
| -18.395 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| -19.026 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -19.724 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -21.677 | What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2023) | Continuous |
| -22.047 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| -23.893 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -23.930 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
| -24.288 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
| -26.284 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
| -28.681 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| -29.676 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
| -30.636 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| -33.519 | Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)? | Continuous |
| -39.138 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | Binary |
| -40.777 | What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be? | Continuous |
| -45.100 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
| -46.294 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
| -47.660 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -47.829 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -47.905 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| -51.417 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
| -51.556 | In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities? | Continuous |
| -53.246 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -53.630 | How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023? | Continuous |
| -54.737 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -57.799 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
| -57.845 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
| -64.540 | When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude? | Continuous |
| -66.061 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
| -69.628 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -70.194 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
| -71.839 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| -75.469 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -75.909 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| -84.487 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
| -89.638 | What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022? | Continuous |
| -94.018 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
| -94.038 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
| -104.687 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
| -129.878 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -149.413 | How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024? | Continuous |
| -163.223 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| -187.699 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| -197.127 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -262.810 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| -317.088 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |