Vang

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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18.54k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
204.874	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
126.975	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
122.974	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
112.235	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
112.072	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
111.665	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
107.406	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
105.645	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
103.745	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
103.571	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
102.196	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
101.438	What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025)	Continuous
99.074	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.810	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
98.593	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
98.431	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
97.729	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
97.729	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)	Binary
97.729	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
97.340	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
97.142	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
96.526	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
96.454	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
96.400	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
96.316	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
96.245	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
96.197	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
95.615	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
95.516	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
95.509	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
95.384	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
95.382	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
95.380	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
95.379	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
95.255	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
95.174	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
95.170	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
95.005	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
94.848	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
94.761	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
94.719	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
94.651	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
94.596	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
93.535	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
93.490	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
93.191	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
93.142	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
93.120	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
93.067	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
92.717	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
92.535	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.484	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
92.301	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
92.002	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
91.828	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)	Binary
91.828	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)	Binary
91.690	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
91.281	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
90.301	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
90.256	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
89.638	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
89.285	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
88.593	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
88.221	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
88.147	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
88.004	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
87.684	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
87.542	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
87.349	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
86.937	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
86.492	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
86.128	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
85.221	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
84.483	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
84.201	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
84.201	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
84.125	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
84.086	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
82.681	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
82.370	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
81.752	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
81.283	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
81.252	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
81.157	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
80.939	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
80.938	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
80.628	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
80.188	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
79.324	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
79.259	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
79.219	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
79.117	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
79.117	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
79.117	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
78.177	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
77.900	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
77.734	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
77.116	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
77.071	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
76.917	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
76.452	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
76.302	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
76.179	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
75.927	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
75.387	What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2024)	Continuous
74.608	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
73.337	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
73.268	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
73.191	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
72.954	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
72.808	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
72.759	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
71.875	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
71.625	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
71.614	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
71.495	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
71.491	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
71.433	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
71.410	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
71.170	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
70.604	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
70.427	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
70.202	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
69.834	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
69.504	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
69.049	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
68.510	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
68.494	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
67.907	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
67.468	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
67.389	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
67.376	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
67.359	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
67.311	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
67.295	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
67.294	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
67.198	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
66.701	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
66.613	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
66.578	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
66.508	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
66.508	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
66.506	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
66.497	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
66.478	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
66.457	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
66.433	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
66.172	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
65.784	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
65.626	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
65.582	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
65.288	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
65.015	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
64.923	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
64.489	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
64.332	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
64.285	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
63.565	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
63.491	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
63.471	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
63.375	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
63.358	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
63.217	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
63.016	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
62.781	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
62.704	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
62.527	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
62.289	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
61.997	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
61.893	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
61.861	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
61.580	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
61.403	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
61.392	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
61.333	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
61.264	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
60.595	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
60.363	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
60.344	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
60.342	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
60.178	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
60.007	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
59.933	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
59.674	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
59.341	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
59.156	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
59.069	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
58.926	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
58.833	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
58.761	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
57.730	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
57.683	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
57.675	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
57.670	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
57.342	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
57.333	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
57.148	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
56.554	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
56.467	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
56.302	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
56.172	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
56.167	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
56.167	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
56.167	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
56.167	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
56.167	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
55.715	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
55.682	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
55.664	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
55.419	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
55.243	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
55.008	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
54.515	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
54.393	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
54.037	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
53.471	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
53.342	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
52.832	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
52.521	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
52.011	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
51.792	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
51.472	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
51.319	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
51.246	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
51.208	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
51.156	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
50.996	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
50.919	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
50.818	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
50.758	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
50.676	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
50.527	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
50.204	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
50.163	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
49.976	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
49.876	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
49.705	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
49.683	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
49.549	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
49.541	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
49.461	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
49.274	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
49.180	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
48.735	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
47.751	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
47.402	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
47.399	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
47.025	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
46.638	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
46.188	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
46.040	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
45.872	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
45.539	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
45.450	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
45.341	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
45.159	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
44.810	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
44.737	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
44.656	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
44.640	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
44.537	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
43.389	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
43.283	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
43.120	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
42.961	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
42.836	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
42.555	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
42.516	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
42.264	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
42.214	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
42.170	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
42.111	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
41.948	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
41.774	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
41.475	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
41.361	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
41.252	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
41.025	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
40.564	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
40.122	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
39.980	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
39.950	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
39.663	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
39.340	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
38.535	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
38.464	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
38.306	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
38.062	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
37.898	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
37.550	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
37.393	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
37.234	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
37.210	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
36.952	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
36.571	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
36.440	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
36.426	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
36.152	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
36.065	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
35.871	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
35.800	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
35.702	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
35.671	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
35.378	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
34.817	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
33.579	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
33.395	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
33.298	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
32.886	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
32.845	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
32.497	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
32.122	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.850	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
31.745	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
31.664	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
31.371	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
31.114	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
30.778	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
30.749	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
30.528	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
30.282	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
30.252	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
29.673	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
29.617	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
29.332	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
29.118	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
29.081	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
29.042	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
28.923	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
28.813	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
28.619	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
28.268	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
28.117	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
28.082	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
27.784	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
27.382	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
27.263	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
27.262	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
27.143	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
26.578	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
26.380	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
26.030	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
26.015	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
25.859	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
25.805	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
25.791	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
25.482	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
25.442	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
25.383	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
25.206	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
24.955	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
23.852	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
23.497	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
23.279	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
22.710	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
22.643	What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025?	Continuous
21.939	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
21.707	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
21.650	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
21.388	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
21.310	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
20.642	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
20.565	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
19.784	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
19.604	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
19.543	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
19.255	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
18.686	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
18.416	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
18.070	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
17.957	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
17.772	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
17.346	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
17.264	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024)	Continuous
16.949	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
16.813	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
15.804	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
15.327	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
15.029	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
14.733	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
14.576	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
13.642	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
13.636	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
13.067	What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?	Continuous
12.839	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
12.813	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
12.184	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
11.883	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
11.750	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
11.638	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
11.577	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
11.540	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
11.413	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024)	Continuous
10.704	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
10.078	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
9.926	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
9.608	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
9.137	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
8.879	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
8.266	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
7.679	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
7.575	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
7.353	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
7.135	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
6.642	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
6.387	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
6.179	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
5.633	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
5.467	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
5.069	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
4.930	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
4.928	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
4.429	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
4.304	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
4.136	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
3.970	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
3.485	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.479	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
3.466	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
3.415	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
3.372	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
3.332	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
3.255	Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?	Binary
2.227	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
1.725	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
1.421	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted)	Continuous
1.181	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
1.101	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.874	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.657	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
0.307	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
0.274	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (1: Candidacy recommended)	Continuous
0.235	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.191	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
-	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
-0.009	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-0.610	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
-0.666	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
-0.834	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-1.019	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-1.201	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
-2.056	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-2.219	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
-2.330	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-2.456	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-2.564	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-2.758	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-2.878	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-3.258	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-3.843	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-4.498	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-4.957	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-5.013	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
-5.157	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-5.355	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-5.767	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-5.815	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
-5.981	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-6.611	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
-6.758	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-6.807	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
-7.367	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-8.575	What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022?	Continuous
-8.649	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-9.265	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-9.329	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-10.952	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-11.399	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
-11.833	What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-13.414	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
-14.037	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-14.138	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-14.247	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-14.272	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-14.663	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-15.275	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
-16.229	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-16.613	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-17.455	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
-17.890	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-18.685	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-18.866	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-19.276	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-22.292	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
-23.290	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-25.112	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-28.444	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-29.690	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-29.924	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-30.377	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-35.812	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-36.932	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-39.005	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-39.397	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-39.923	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
-41.583	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-42.237	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-42.285	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-45.293	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
-54.149	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-54.269	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-56.512	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
-56.692	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-57.940	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-59.732	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-68.036	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-69.500	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-77.660	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-85.291	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-89.837	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-94.709	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-95.090	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-98.596	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
-99.069	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-102.497	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-104.689	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-105.215	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-113.300	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-138.078	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-155.055	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-156.645	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-161.822	What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-174.030	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-175.529	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-194.317	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-215.378	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-219.052	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-269.706	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary