aristophanes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7.031k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.411	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
98.408	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
98.392	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
98.372	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
97.678	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
97.443	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
97.358	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
97.164	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
96.698	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
96.443	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
96.400	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
96.055	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
95.707	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
95.409	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
95.351	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
95.350	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
94.928	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
94.896	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
94.839	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
94.568	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
94.237	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
93.694	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
92.624	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
92.491	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
91.659	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
91.414	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
90.520	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
89.519	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
88.299	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
87.897	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
87.867	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
86.726	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
85.696	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
85.535	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
85.398	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
85.142	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
84.831	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
84.290	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
81.168	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
79.455	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
79.104	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
76.790	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
76.621	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
76.264	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
76.243	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
74.919	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
74.008	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
73.250	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
72.857	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
70.850	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
68.968	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
68.247	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
68.177	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
67.758	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
67.563	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
66.899	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
66.259	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
66.165	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen)	Binary
64.617	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
63.358	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
61.925	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
61.372	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)	Binary
60.543	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
58.732	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
57.961	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
57.904	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
56.900	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
56.801	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
55.714	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
54.662	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
54.495	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
53.568	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
52.814	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
52.053	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
48.534	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
48.450	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.240	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
47.592	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
46.664	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
46.131	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
46.077	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
45.817	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
44.993	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
43.287	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
42.213	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
41.799	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
40.310	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne)	Binary
38.793	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
38.170	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
37.679	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
37.037	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
36.569	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
36.296	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
33.961	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
32.656	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
30.955	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
29.265	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
29.185	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
28.856	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (September 1, 2022)	Continuous
28.552	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
28.350	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
27.925	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
27.107	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
19.950	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
19.752	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
17.599	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
17.391	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
17.103	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
15.219	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
15.201	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
14.589	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
14.477	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
14.269	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
13.460	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
12.898	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
12.499	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
12.053	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
12.006	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.913	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
11.777	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
10.116	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
10.076	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
10.013	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
9.570	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
8.524	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
7.667	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
5.658	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
4.707	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
4.540	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
3.557	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.514	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
2.771	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
2.756	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
2.310	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
2.171	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
2.171	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
2.171	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
2.171	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
1.850	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
1.813	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
1.662	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
0.693	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
0.485	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
0.422	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
0.077	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.022	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
-1.330	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
-2.277	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-10.616	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-13.130	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-16.969	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
-17.540	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-23.151	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023)	Continuous
-26.647	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-30.335	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-37.668	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-39.786	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-47.814	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-69.066	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous