aristophanes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.765k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.124	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
97.448	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
96.847	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
95.551	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
94.338	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.185	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.795	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
93.702	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
92.869	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
91.827	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
91.618	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
91.489	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
91.359	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
91.043	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
90.421	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
89.965	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
89.886	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
89.225	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
89.201	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
89.196	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
88.609	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
87.078	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
86.612	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
84.835	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
84.480	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
83.409	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
83.278	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
83.034	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
81.627	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
81.576	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
81.482	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
80.290	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
80.197	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
80.049	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
79.280	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
77.696	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
76.472	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
75.993	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
73.490	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
73.028	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
72.202	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
69.057	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
67.755	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
67.381	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
65.425	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
65.089	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
64.200	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
63.584	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
63.189	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
63.055	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
56.701	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
56.613	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
56.254	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
55.439	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
54.872	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
54.215	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
53.479	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
53.043	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
52.651	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
52.163	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
49.096	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
47.604	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
47.555	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
46.925	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
46.290	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
44.461	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
43.507	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
42.678	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
42.678	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
42.678	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
42.678	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
42.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
42.674	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
42.674	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
42.657	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
41.602	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
41.575	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
41.188	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
40.781	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
34.433	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
34.082	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
33.769	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
33.447	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
32.692	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
30.834	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
30.834	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
30.834	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
30.834	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
30.833	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
30.833	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
30.833	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
30.833	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
30.833	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
30.437	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.943	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
29.079	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
28.116	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
27.558	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.851	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
26.255	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
26.169	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
25.474	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.255	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
25.163	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
25.073	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
24.043	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
22.702	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
22.429	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
21.340	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
21.026	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
20.687	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
18.306	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
17.396	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
16.400	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
15.332	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
14.989	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.840	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
14.790	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.746	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
14.746	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
14.527	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
14.469	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
13.782	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
13.689	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
13.366	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
12.133	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
11.796	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
11.514	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
11.431	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
11.127	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
9.690	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
6.987	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
6.811	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
5.868	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.248	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
3.098	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.883	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
1.934	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
1.435	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
1.323	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.250	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
1.063	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
0.243	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
-	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
-6.993	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-7.920	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-9.285	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-12.335	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-17.305	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-19.293	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-19.396	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
-22.730	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-23.214	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-35.385	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-36.243	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-55.201	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-81.174	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-91.211	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

aristophanes

User

aristophanes