| 231.245 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 161.996 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 112.086 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 99.192 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 99.066 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 99.027 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 98.985 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.985 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 98.445 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 98.444 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 98.432 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 98.401 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.347 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 98.347 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 98.347 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 97.811 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.677 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 97.581 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.202 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.080 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 96.943 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 96.829 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 96.481 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.209 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.208 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 96.208 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 96.208 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 96.208 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 95.625 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.510 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.496 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.355 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 95.316 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.140 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.039 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.934 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.853 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 94.853 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 94.643 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 94.614 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.555 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 94.169 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 94.005 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 93.893 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.677 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 93.407 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 92.463 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.328 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 92.297 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 92.135 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 92.076 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 92.030 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.675 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 91.581 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 91.262 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.147 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 90.841 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 90.272 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 90.219 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 89.719 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 89.174 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 88.961 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 88.953 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 88.908 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 88.268 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.825 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 87.823 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 87.286 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 86.862 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 86.273 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 86.270 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 85.849 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 84.696 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.654 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 84.329 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 84.153 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.895 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 83.895 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 83.895 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 83.765 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 83.679 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 83.454 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.337 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 83.070 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 82.952 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 82.734 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 81.664 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 80.600 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 80.395 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 79.996 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 79.504 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 79.139 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 79.031 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 78.591 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 78.558 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 77.105 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 76.725 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 76.281 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 76.212 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 75.597 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 75.494 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 74.721 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 73.496 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 73.178 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 72.644 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 72.246 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 71.610 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 70.801 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 70.325 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 70.062 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 70.062 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 69.955 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 69.439 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.267 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 68.707 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 68.707 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 68.498 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.756 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 66.379 | What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 66.342 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 65.999 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 65.742 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 65.672 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 65.341 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.251 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 64.967 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 64.449 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 64.422 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 64.396 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 64.396 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 64.195 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 64.041 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 63.451 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 62.845 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 62.845 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 62.638 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 62.116 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 61.385 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 61.262 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 61.225 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 59.732 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 59.592 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 59.334 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 58.863 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 58.468 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 58.321 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 57.985 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.701 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 57.322 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 56.980 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 56.133 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 56.133 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 55.152 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.542 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 54.134 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 53.056 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 52.900 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 52.286 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 51.991 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 51.767 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 51.593 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 51.222 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 51.011 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.975 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 49.789 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 49.646 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 49.286 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 49.286 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 49.192 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 48.642 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 48.641 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 48.641 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 48.641 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 48.641 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 48.641 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 48.641 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 48.637 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 48.621 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 48.483 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 48.292 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 48.287 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 47.972 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 47.918 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 47.831 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 47.822 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 47.397 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 47.218 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 47.188 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 47.188 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 46.826 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 46.733 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.880 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.729 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 45.667 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 45.641 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 44.834 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 44.191 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 44.106 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 43.799 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 43.549 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 43.270 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 42.802 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 41.400 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| 40.140 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 39.925 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 39.766 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 39.408 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 38.805 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 38.595 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 37.768 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 37.144 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 36.759 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 36.682 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 36.663 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 35.760 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 35.671 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 35.602 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 32.689 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 31.875 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.508 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 31.168 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 31.152 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 31.001 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 30.470 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 30.309 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| 29.819 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 29.782 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.609 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 29.019 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 28.839 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 28.786 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 28.242 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 27.757 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
| 27.700 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 27.546 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 27.413 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 26.416 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 26.404 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 26.378 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 26.254 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 25.144 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 25.144 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 25.144 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 25.144 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 25.144 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 25.144 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 25.144 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 25.144 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 25.137 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 25.132 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 24.490 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 24.297 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 23.672 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| 23.494 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.407 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 22.920 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 22.900 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 22.678 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 22.549 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 21.999 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 20.953 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 20.805 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 20.756 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 20.630 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 20.555 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.568 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 19.520 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 18.196 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 17.719 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 17.581 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 16.767 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 16.631 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 16.336 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 16.258 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 14.905 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.084 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 13.744 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.672 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 13.122 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 13.068 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 12.429 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.757 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 10.540 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 10.446 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 9.744 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 8.917 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 8.461 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 8.355 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 8.211 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 7.963 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.754 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 7.545 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 7.431 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.327 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.324 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 7.051 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 6.581 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 6.156 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 6.035 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 5.989 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
| 5.380 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.076 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 4.970 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 4.184 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 4.171 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 3.999 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 3.546 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 3.468 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 3.468 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 3.407 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 2.782 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 2.782 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 2.782 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 2.782 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 2.347 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| 2.321 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 2.107 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 2.086 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 2.047 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 2.019 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 1.967 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 1.618 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 1.537 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 1.444 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 1.069 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.932 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 0.805 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 0.756 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 0.496 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.461 | When will Kwasi Kwarteng no longer hold the office of UK chancellor of the Exchequer? | Continuous |
| 0.104 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 0.103 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| 0.044 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| - | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -0.179 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -0.266 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -0.508 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -1.315 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -1.473 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| -1.662 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -1.684 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -2.438 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| -3.439 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| -3.529 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| -4.274 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -4.393 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -4.593 | [Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| -4.769 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -5.068 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| -7.525 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| -7.954 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -9.827 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| -10.394 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| -11.745 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -12.009 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| -12.097 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -14.245 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| -14.281 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -14.423 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -16.962 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -18.367 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -23.369 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| -24.222 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -24.392 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -24.777 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -26.124 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| -27.160 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -28.934 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -31.974 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| -31.981 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -32.355 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -34.351 | Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023? | Binary |
| -39.093 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -40.516 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -42.219 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -44.025 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -50.969 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -51.546 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -55.928 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -59.112 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -72.616 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -80.186 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -84.525 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -99.514 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -104.170 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -132.660 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -135.319 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -148.356 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |