130.279 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
111.976 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
105.768 | When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases? | Continuous |
97.054 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
93.974 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
93.974 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
93.709 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
93.181 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
93.136 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
91.314 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
87.203 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
85.292 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
85.288 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
84.793 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
84.785 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
84.615 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
84.373 | What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report? | Continuous |
84.269 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
84.049 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
84.009 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
82.397 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
81.689 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
80.027 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
78.801 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
77.360 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
76.486 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
75.491 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
75.309 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
74.341 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
73.747 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
70.154 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
69.183 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
68.952 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
67.911 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
66.494 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
65.491 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
62.191 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
61.444 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
60.606 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
58.760 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
57.567 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
57.380 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
56.717 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
56.524 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
54.038 | When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) | Continuous |
53.499 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
53.361 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
53.352 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
53.315 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
52.657 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
51.955 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
51.955 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
51.955 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
51.955 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
51.955 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
50.901 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
50.901 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
50.901 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
50.901 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
50.901 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
50.901 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
50.679 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
50.203 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
50.170 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
50.144 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
49.426 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
49.426 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
49.278 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
49.109 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
48.789 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
47.965 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
47.827 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
46.578 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
45.762 | What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming? | Continuous |
44.974 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
44.500 | How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022? | Continuous |
44.150 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
43.875 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
43.799 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
43.007 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
42.108 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
40.050 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
39.956 | When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels? | Continuous |
39.138 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
38.287 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
37.747 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
36.933 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
36.828 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
36.278 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
35.550 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
34.831 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
34.235 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
33.366 | When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million? | Continuous |
31.898 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
30.944 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
30.792 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
29.844 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
29.729 | When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
29.658 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
29.651 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
29.028 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
27.896 | Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? | Binary |
27.822 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
27.126 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
26.604 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
26.556 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
26.517 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
26.429 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
26.409 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
26.381 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
26.301 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
25.322 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
22.307 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
21.725 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
19.422 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
18.850 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
18.589 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
17.656 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
17.258 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
16.783 | When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
15.473 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
14.393 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
13.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
13.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
13.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
13.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
13.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
13.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
13.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
13.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
12.933 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
10.764 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
10.465 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
9.620 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
9.136 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
8.150 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | Binary |
8.150 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
8.060 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
7.605 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
7.605 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
7.455 | How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? | Continuous |
7.248 | Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? | Binary |
6.514 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
4.284 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
4.283 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
3.956 | Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? | Binary |
2.628 | When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted? | Continuous |
2.009 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
1.814 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
1.409 | When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area? | Continuous |
1.321 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
0.537 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
0.051 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
0.035 | Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022? | Binary |
-1.543 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | Binary |
-2.825 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-3.661 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
-4.233 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
-8.929 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
-9.590 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
-9.597 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
-9.623 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
-10.611 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
-13.065 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
-14.431 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
-15.235 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
-23.758 | When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? | Continuous |
-24.785 | How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022? | Continuous |
-29.367 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
-31.584 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
-33.717 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
-36.531 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
-36.945 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-40.566 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
-56.490 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
-64.755 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
-64.769 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
-68.594 | What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
-78.139 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
-79.898 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
-82.646 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
-88.709 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
-90.018 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
-93.767 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | Continuous |
-99.765 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
-106.971 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
-112.231 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | Continuous |
-119.927 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |