SimonM

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9.266k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
188.664	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
181.744	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
172.988	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
167.241	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
150.351	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
136.465	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
113.946	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
112.919	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
106.864	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
106.670	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
105.544	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
104.262	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
103.909	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
100.786	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
97.337	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
97.044	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
96.946	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
96.760	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
96.643	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
96.165	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
96.156	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
96.142	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
93.903	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
93.449	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
93.430	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
93.293	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
93.131	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
92.990	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
92.727	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
92.576	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
92.423	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
91.724	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
91.717	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
91.038	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
91.036	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
91.000	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
90.930	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
90.489	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
90.314	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
90.034	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
89.697	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
89.070	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
88.664	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
88.615	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
87.877	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
87.548	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
85.885	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
85.704	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
85.196	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
84.731	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
84.694	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
83.080	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
81.192	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
80.791	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
79.514	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
79.449	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
79.074	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
78.920	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
78.791	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
77.853	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
77.818	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
77.730	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
77.307	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
75.985	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
74.950	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
73.909	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
72.759	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
72.731	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
72.415	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
71.690	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
71.597	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
71.228	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
71.001	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
70.521	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
70.503	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
70.033	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
68.573	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
67.680	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
67.634	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
67.415	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
67.284	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
67.209	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
66.922	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
66.841	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
66.809	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
66.122	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
65.760	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
64.536	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
64.069	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
63.666	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
63.138	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
63.073	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
61.964	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
61.486	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
59.932	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
59.847	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
59.436	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
59.378	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
58.483	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
57.059	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
56.589	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
56.084	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
55.815	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
55.680	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
55.469	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
55.157	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
54.975	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
53.975	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
52.446	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
52.281	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
50.482	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
49.852	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
49.658	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
49.211	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
48.760	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
48.741	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
47.904	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
47.210	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
47.088	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
46.933	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
46.816	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
46.391	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
45.487	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
44.682	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
43.546	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
43.264	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
43.033	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
42.732	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
41.640	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
40.535	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
39.969	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
38.017	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
37.159	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
36.611	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
36.447	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
35.471	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
35.289	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
35.218	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
32.689	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
32.605	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
32.386	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
31.427	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
31.213	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
31.067	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
31.057	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
29.738	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
29.708	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
28.567	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
28.526	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
27.953	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
24.741	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
24.699	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
24.249	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
23.332	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
22.668	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
22.559	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
22.042	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
19.075	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
18.470	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
17.134	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
17.039	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
16.498	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
16.468	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
15.992	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
15.602	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
14.197	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
13.388	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
13.266	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
13.227	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
13.085	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
12.397	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
12.261	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
9.197	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
8.868	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
8.222	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
7.838	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
7.346	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
7.299	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
6.777	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
6.218	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
5.221	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
4.865	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
4.431	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
4.171	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
4.101	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
2.743	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
2.473	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
2.123	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
1.994	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
1.861	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
1.361	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
1.268	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
0.011	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-0.082	Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-0.163	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-1.115	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.851	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-3.097	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
-4.176	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-4.509	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
-5.191	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-6.457	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
-7.261	When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order?	Continuous
-7.623	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-8.046	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
-10.921	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-12.015	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-12.481	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
-13.530	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
-13.836	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
-13.891	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
-14.586	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
-18.068	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-18.413	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-20.580	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-23.106	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-32.797	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-32.883	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-32.939	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-41.373	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
-43.821	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
-46.603	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
-47.106	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-48.789	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-49.373	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-49.388	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-55.274	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
-61.709	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-80.239	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-81.444	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-89.566	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
-94.984	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
-113.649	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-187.721	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
-200.915	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
-201.192	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-210.269	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous