SimonM

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.62k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
220.565	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
168.258	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
121.263	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
119.425	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
113.117	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
108.808	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
107.903	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
102.486	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
102.184	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
101.691	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
100.866	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
99.045	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
98.660	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
98.657	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
98.257	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
97.525	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
93.835	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
92.848	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
91.063	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
89.710	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
88.839	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
87.932	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
87.024	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
86.193	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
85.448	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
84.174	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
83.308	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
83.181	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
83.079	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
82.508	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
82.461	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
81.390	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
80.661	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
80.534	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
80.203	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
79.808	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
79.418	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
79.149	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
78.780	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
78.435	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
77.537	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
77.115	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
75.876	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
74.831	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
73.796	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
73.772	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
72.621	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
70.196	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
67.241	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
67.125	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
67.031	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
66.133	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
65.979	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
65.808	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
65.666	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
65.308	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
65.202	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
64.986	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
64.410	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
62.690	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
62.354	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
61.666	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
61.492	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
60.965	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
60.128	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
59.441	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
57.264	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
55.969	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
55.451	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
55.419	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
55.176	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
54.212	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
53.808	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
53.688	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
53.415	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
52.548	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
52.202	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
50.522	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
50.404	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
49.183	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
48.296	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
44.571	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
44.408	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
43.895	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
43.551	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
42.441	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
42.207	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
41.879	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
39.786	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
39.293	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
39.171	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
39.032	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
38.346	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
37.372	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
37.349	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
35.312	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
33.994	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
33.875	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
32.859	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
31.979	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
31.888	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
31.427	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
28.313	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
28.073	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
27.599	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
26.625	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
25.833	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
25.489	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
25.399	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
25.207	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
23.848	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
23.847	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
22.737	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
22.592	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
21.105	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
20.177	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
20.120	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
20.016	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
19.897	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
19.394	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
19.383	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
18.437	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
18.054	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
17.156	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
17.005	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
16.241	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
15.952	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
15.663	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
15.050	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
15.017	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
14.994	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
14.053	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
13.556	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
12.836	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
12.493	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
12.191	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
12.092	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
11.387	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
9.671	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
9.237	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
8.130	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
6.018	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
3.972	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
3.250	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
3.003	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
1.226	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
1.009	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
0.232	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-1.065	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-4.061	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-5.853	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-5.950	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-6.072	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
-7.122	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-7.300	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-7.419	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-11.514	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-11.603	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-13.873	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-15.211	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-18.589	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-20.120	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-21.010	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-21.466	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-23.168	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-25.408	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-25.530	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-29.777	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-33.423	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-34.687	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-34.935	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
-38.637	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-45.178	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-48.168	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-48.447	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-52.970	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-54.680	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-55.320	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-63.252	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-63.413	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-73.620	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-75.409	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-80.377	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-83.810	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-89.036	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-89.202	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-90.881	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-91.570	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-99.444	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-117.394	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-123.608	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-143.928	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-161.730	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-178.719	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous