Glossy

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.206k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
146.035	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
128.859	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
127.067	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
124.871	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
105.160	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
101.858	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
100.924	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
98.246	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
97.537	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
97.018	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.016	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
96.904	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
96.900	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
96.602	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
96.483	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
96.202	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
95.575	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
95.433	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
95.361	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
95.269	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
94.494	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.311	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.024	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
93.708	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
93.347	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
92.153	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
91.948	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
90.633	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
90.376	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
89.565	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
87.204	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
85.872	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
84.922	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
84.729	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
84.053	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
84.044	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
82.543	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
79.300	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
77.462	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
73.371	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
71.501	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
70.244	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
69.801	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
69.699	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
67.757	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
66.095	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
64.115	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
59.602	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
57.266	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
56.023	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
54.554	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
53.596	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
51.880	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
51.799	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
50.276	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
49.794	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
49.504	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
48.314	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.262	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
47.857	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
46.745	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
43.837	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
42.575	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
41.250	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
40.455	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
39.558	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
38.632	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
38.307	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
37.881	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
37.467	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
37.081	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
34.151	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
33.850	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
33.045	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
29.216	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
28.254	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
27.012	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
26.369	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
26.075	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
23.946	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
23.812	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
23.348	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
23.197	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
21.307	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
19.020	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
18.110	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022?	Continuous
17.640	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
15.870	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
15.072	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
14.169	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
13.314	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
12.549	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
11.249	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
10.832	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
9.892	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
9.048	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
8.541	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
7.432	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022?	Continuous
7.308	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.154	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
3.270	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
2.753	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
2.515	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.999	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
0.894	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
0.580	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
-4.140	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-7.926	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-8.281	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
-12.169	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-15.889	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
-23.339	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-25.255	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-25.807	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 8th and July 1st 2022?	Continuous
-44.621	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
-60.731	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-95.267	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-121.265	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-139.398	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-207.372	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous