JonathanShi

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9.668k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
209.011	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
205.388	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
177.391	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
131.765	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
130.702	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
125.888	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
123.917	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
123.238	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
120.586	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
116.242	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
114.729	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
114.618	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
113.760	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
112.210	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
111.849	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
102.027	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
101.894	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
100.893	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
99.911	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
98.199	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
98.095	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
97.099	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
96.954	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
96.877	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
96.701	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
96.637	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
96.394	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
95.584	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
95.339	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
95.299	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
94.800	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
94.578	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
93.750	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
93.614	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
92.595	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
92.376	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
91.323	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
90.424	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
90.297	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
89.719	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
85.954	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
84.763	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
84.506	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
84.320	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
83.467	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
82.522	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
81.617	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
81.554	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
81.521	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
81.499	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
79.708	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
79.651	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
79.451	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
78.293	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
77.903	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
77.848	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
77.789	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
77.220	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
76.154	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
75.558	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
74.381	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
74.322	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
74.311	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
74.187	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
73.355	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
72.445	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
71.347	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
71.194	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
70.626	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
70.378	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
69.543	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
68.636	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
68.253	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
67.759	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
66.547	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
66.307	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
65.425	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
65.108	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
64.769	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
64.477	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
64.152	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
63.129	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
62.892	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
62.516	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
62.507	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
62.056	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
61.480	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
61.307	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
61.069	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
60.774	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
60.762	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
60.685	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
59.207	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
59.051	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
58.418	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
58.135	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
57.211	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
56.591	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
55.215	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
53.265	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
52.986	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
52.546	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
51.594	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
50.954	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
49.917	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
48.296	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
47.532	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
47.174	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
46.937	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
45.735	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
45.312	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
45.063	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
44.167	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
43.816	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
42.701	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
42.365	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
42.248	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
41.940	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
41.674	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
41.268	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
41.242	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
40.999	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
40.676	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
39.831	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
39.705	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
39.628	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
37.835	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
37.564	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
37.175	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
36.924	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
36.369	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
36.155	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
35.541	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
35.399	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
34.917	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
34.635	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
32.891	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
32.006	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
31.398	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
31.279	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
31.219	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
30.680	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
30.604	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
30.570	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
30.153	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
28.682	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
28.675	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
27.408	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
27.182	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
26.834	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
26.525	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
25.292	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
24.663	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
24.144	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
23.080	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
22.811	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
22.792	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
22.460	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
21.377	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
21.350	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
20.809	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
20.799	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
19.738	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
19.699	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
19.699	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
19.698	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
19.258	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
18.536	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
15.709	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
15.109	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
14.963	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
14.914	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
14.481	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
14.197	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
14.040	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
13.100	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
12.930	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
12.807	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
12.638	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
12.134	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
11.237	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
10.884	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
10.704	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
10.660	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
10.515	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
10.131	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
9.440	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
8.920	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
8.616	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
8.560	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
7.189	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
6.916	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
6.097	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
5.660	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
4.619	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
4.172	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
2.832	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
2.381	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
2.058	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
1.850	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
1.702	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
0.979	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
0.649	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.167	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
0.002	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-1.920	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-2.674	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-3.254	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-3.892	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
-5.694	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-5.858	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
-6.015	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-7.320	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-7.475	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-8.918	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-10.846	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-12.755	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-16.165	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-18.438	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
-19.070	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-19.330	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-21.188	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
-22.861	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-24.284	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
-25.191	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-30.730	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-32.173	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-46.349	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-48.083	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-48.145	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-52.930	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-55.775	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-56.188	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-64.547	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-65.883	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-68.014	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-70.486	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-88.876	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-114.521	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-129.120	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-161.745	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-238.436	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary