Alexander230

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.231k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
126.722	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
101.560	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
97.398	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.397	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
94.919	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
92.413	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
89.835	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
88.470	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
83.471	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
83.204	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
82.237	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
81.432	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
79.001	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
77.186	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
77.096	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
75.693	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022?	Continuous
74.469	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
71.838	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
71.835	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
70.256	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
68.686	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
65.356	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
63.864	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
62.458	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
62.210	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
59.522	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
58.212	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
57.557	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
56.877	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
55.604	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
55.089	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
55.027	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
52.609	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022?	Continuous
52.351	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
51.963	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
50.042	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
49.921	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
49.177	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
49.066	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
48.480	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
47.861	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
47.492	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
47.255	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
46.817	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
46.766	What percentage of participants who adhere to the diet in the SMTM potato study and start with a BMI > 25 will lose 20 lbs or more over 4 weeks?	Continuous
46.754	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
46.698	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 22nd of April, 2022?	Continuous
45.355	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
45.157	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
45.124	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
44.979	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
44.660	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
44.356	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
44.104	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
43.635	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2022-12-08)	Continuous
43.052	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
42.193	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
41.927	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
41.855	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
41.652	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
41.418	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
41.029	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022?	Continuous
40.452	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
40.260	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
39.745	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
39.319	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
39.094	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
38.582	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
38.574	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Yankees)	Binary
38.502	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
38.438	What will be the value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in December 2022?	Continuous
38.243	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
38.036	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
37.808	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?	Continuous
37.760	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
37.326	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
37.308	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
36.513	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
36.202	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
36.045	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
35.997	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
35.935	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
35.893	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
35.476	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
34.654	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
34.541	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
34.182	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
33.786	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
33.295	What percentage of participants who adhere to the diet in the SMTM potato study and start with a BMI > 30 will lose 20 lbs or more over 4 weeks?	Continuous
33.240	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
33.042	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
32.612	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
32.231	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
32.072	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
31.767	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
31.711	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
31.652	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
31.182	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
30.989	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
30.716	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
30.506	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
29.720	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
29.266	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
28.483	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
27.885	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
27.691	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
27.556	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
27.435	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
27.090	How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Wednesday, November 23rd (the day before Thanksgiving), as reported by FlightAware?	Continuous
26.122	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
26.092	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
25.521	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
25.340	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
24.915	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
24.317	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
24.000	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
23.698	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
23.094	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
22.978	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
22.959	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
22.899	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
22.794	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
22.787	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
22.768	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
22.607	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
22.376	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
21.910	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
21.769	How many new Pokemon will Pokemon Scarlet and Violet introduce?	Continuous
21.712	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?	Continuous
21.354	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2022)	Continuous
20.519	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
20.430	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
20.403	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
20.314	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
20.057	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
19.970	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
19.948	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
19.884	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
19.740	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
19.728	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
19.686	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
19.562	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
19.369	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
19.361	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
19.338	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
19.228	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
19.172	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
19.054	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
19.019	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
18.878	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
18.801	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
18.773	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
18.497	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
18.290	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
18.270	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
18.243	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
18.049	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
17.677	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
17.261	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
17.011	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
15.901	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
15.593	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
15.549	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
15.037	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
15.026	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
14.768	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
14.285	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
14.136	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
14.097	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
14.054	What will the price of ETH be on Dec 2, 2022 at noon EST?	Continuous
13.714	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
13.317	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
12.902	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
12.864	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga)	Binary
12.829	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
12.649	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
12.487	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
12.349	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
12.266	Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022?	Binary
12.131	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
12.115	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
12.018	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.324	Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?	Binary
10.842	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
10.590	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
10.524	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
10.415	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
10.365	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
10.274	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
10.264	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
10.047	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
9.885	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
9.512	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
9.193	Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?	Binary
9.084	What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states, in billions of cubic feet, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on December 29th?	Continuous
8.695	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
8.588	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
8.505	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
8.329	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
8.148	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
8.009	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
7.793	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
7.609	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
7.502	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
7.193	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
6.961	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
6.922	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
6.561	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.381	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
6.140	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
5.989	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
5.839	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
5.377	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
5.374	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
4.443	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
4.398	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
4.370	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
4.069	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
3.990	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
3.909	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
3.735	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
3.598	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
3.581	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
3.540	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
3.247	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
3.175	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
3.015	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
2.780	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
2.314	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
2.237	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
2.223	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
1.992	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
1.950	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
1.916	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Tom Emmer)	Binary
1.589	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
1.100	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
0.904	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
0.853	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
0.632	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
0.492	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
0.457	What percentage of people who try the diet in the SMTM potato study will report an increase in mood?	Continuous
0.415	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
0.261	What percentage of people who sign up for the SMTM potato study will complete all 4 weeks of the diet?	Continuous
0.251	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
0.227	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
0.207	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.089	How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?	Continuous
0.073	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
-	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
-	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
-	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-1.569	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-1.675	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
-1.759	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-3.318	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-3.843	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-4.231	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-4.368	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
-5.367	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-6.486	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-6.833	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-8.405	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
-8.847	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-12.502	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
-13.660	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-14.220	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto)	Binary
-14.802	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-14.841	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
-14.963	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
-14.964	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
-14.999	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
-15.078	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-17.449	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-22.090	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-23.817	Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate?	Continuous
-24.092	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
-24.098	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
-24.145	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (October 2022)	Continuous
-25.047	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-26.616	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-27.066	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
-30.379	How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Saturday, December 24th (the day before Christmas), as reported by FlightAware?	Continuous
-30.521	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
-34.223	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
-44.122	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
-44.191	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-48.178	How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022?	Continuous
-51.452	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-67.747	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
-68.691	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
-68.726	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-70.407	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-71.265	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-216.983	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-231.098	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-426.602	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary