Alexander230

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.151k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
145.968	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
107.205	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
92.128	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
92.086	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
89.182	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
87.295	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
86.376	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
86.313	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
85.656	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
85.091	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
81.243	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
80.452	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.779	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
78.369	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
77.654	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
76.556	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
76.151	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
75.154	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
74.279	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
74.278	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
74.278	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
74.278	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
73.286	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
72.366	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
71.808	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
70.229	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
69.499	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
69.125	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
68.311	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
67.797	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
65.435	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
64.889	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
64.228	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
63.256	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
63.210	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
62.698	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
61.366	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
60.804	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
60.436	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
59.946	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
59.874	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
59.414	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
59.394	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
58.739	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
58.519	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
57.491	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
56.903	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
56.072	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
55.764	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
53.632	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
53.127	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
52.366	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years))	Binary
52.145	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
51.093	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
50.802	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
50.734	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
50.709	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
50.038	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
48.653	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
48.264	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
47.768	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
46.753	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
46.717	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
46.225	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
45.973	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
45.394	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
45.320	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
44.845	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
44.683	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
44.571	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
44.116	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
44.079	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
43.983	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
43.664	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
43.357	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
43.177	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
43.017	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
42.512	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
41.448	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
40.719	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
40.408	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
39.982	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
39.800	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
39.785	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
39.344	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
39.157	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
38.804	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
38.590	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
37.847	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
37.132	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
36.977	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
36.474	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
36.131	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
35.938	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
35.912	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
34.585	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
34.584	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
34.461	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
34.018	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
33.254	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
33.200	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
32.972	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
32.547	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
32.290	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
31.534	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
31.316	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
29.492	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
28.450	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
27.940	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
27.332	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
26.807	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
25.534	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
25.269	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
25.192	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
24.698	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
24.270	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
24.254	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 7)	Continuous
23.979	What percentage of the vote will Abdel Fattah El-Sisi win in the first round of the 2023 Egyptian Presidential election?	Continuous
23.979	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
23.912	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
23.102	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
22.817	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
22.501	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
21.727	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
21.692	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
21.408	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
21.381	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
21.374	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
20.799	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
20.587	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
20.493	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
20.462	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
20.372	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
20.163	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
20.136	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
19.190	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
18.901	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
18.846	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
18.522	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
16.832	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
16.644	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
16.284	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
15.648	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
15.182	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
15.180	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
14.752	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
14.316	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
14.194	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
13.943	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
13.227	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
13.221	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
13.136	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
13.024	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
12.754	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
12.647	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
12.626	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
12.547	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.514	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
12.508	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.402	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
12.174	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
11.922	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
11.529	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
11.362	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
10.949	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
10.909	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
10.864	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
10.722	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
10.521	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
10.405	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
10.261	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
10.113	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
9.924	Next US Speaker of the House? (Jim Jordan (R)) (No) → US Government Shutdown Before 2024?	Binary
9.808	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
9.542	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
8.411	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
8.094	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
7.781	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
7.733	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
7.411	What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023?	Continuous
6.840	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.645	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
6.456	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
6.305	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
6.030	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
5.920	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
5.220	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
5.070	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
4.764	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
4.528	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
4.484	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
4.347	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
3.679	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
3.097	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
2.333	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
2.082	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
1.500	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
1.259	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
0.808	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.221	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
0.151	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
-	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
-	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
-	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
-	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
-0.598	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
-1.591	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
-1.672	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
-3.035	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-3.496	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
-4.795	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
-5.755	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-7.232	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-8.095	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-10.116	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-10.619	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
-10.822	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.641	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-12.576	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-13.408	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-14.928	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-15.087	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-17.643	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
-17.928	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-19.360	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-19.845	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-21.217	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-23.213	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
-25.028	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-26.332	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-35.890	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-37.208	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-42.804	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-46.586	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-48.970	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-49.534	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
-51.849	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-65.973	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years))	Binary
-67.588	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-83.902	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
-88.571	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
-91.711	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-139.816	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous

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Alexander230

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Alexander230