Alexander230

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.538k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.235	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
56.785	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
53.576	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
53.555	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
53.286	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
51.394	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
47.517	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
47.181	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
46.400	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
44.160	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
42.229	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
42.229	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
42.229	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
40.878	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
40.501	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
39.357	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
38.936	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
38.677	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
38.647	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
37.695	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
37.695	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
37.070	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
36.496	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
35.804	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
34.359	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
32.197	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
30.086	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
28.844	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
28.557	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
27.966	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
27.909	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
27.413	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
27.219	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.292	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
26.250	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
25.722	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
25.458	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
25.012	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
24.355	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
24.039	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
23.298	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
23.257	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
23.224	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
23.220	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
22.488	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
22.229	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
22.127	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
22.060	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
21.973	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
21.942	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
21.038	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
20.683	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
20.207	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
19.876	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
19.384	Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?	Binary
19.077	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
18.706	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
17.762	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
17.718	Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season?	Binary
16.816	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
16.512	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
15.404	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
15.295	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
15.068	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
14.916	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
14.272	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
14.067	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
14.033	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
13.996	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
13.861	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
13.579	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
12.803	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
12.517	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
12.502	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
12.495	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
12.105	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
12.105	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
12.105	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
12.105	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
11.760	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
11.752	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
11.710	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
11.435	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
11.167	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.786	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
10.644	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
10.541	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
10.429	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
10.255	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
10.068	Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024?	Binary
9.999	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
9.974	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
9.917	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
9.839	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
9.791	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
9.736	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
8.785	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
8.429	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
8.330	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
8.319	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
7.924	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
7.903	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
7.895	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
7.847	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.798	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
7.652	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
7.503	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
7.492	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
7.492	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
7.492	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
7.314	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
7.000	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
6.929	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
6.876	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
6.831	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
6.830	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
6.776	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
6.498	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
6.442	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
6.437	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
6.071	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
6.010	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
5.877	What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024?	Continuous
5.836	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
5.810	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
5.584	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
5.474	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
5.402	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
5.402	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
5.402	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
5.315	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
5.289	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
5.262	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
5.262	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
5.262	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
5.258	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
5.258	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
5.236	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
5.206	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
5.148	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
5.122	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
5.068	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
5.038	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
5.007	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
4.916	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
4.912	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
4.867	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
4.693	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
4.599	Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?	Binary
4.565	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
4.560	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
4.551	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
4.551	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
4.551	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
4.551	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
4.551	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
4.551	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
4.551	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
4.503	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
4.502	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
4.492	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
4.487	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
4.400	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
4.334	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
4.262	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
4.192	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
4.088	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
3.857	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
3.855	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
3.751	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
3.746	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
3.713	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
3.680	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
3.431	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
3.284	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
3.268	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
3.237	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
3.127	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
3.123	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
3.042	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
3.001	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
2.974	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
2.841	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
2.810	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
2.705	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
2.474	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)	Binary
2.415	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
2.375	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
2.301	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
2.234	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
2.211	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
2.149	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
2.107	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
2.066	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
2.057	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
2.007	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
1.925	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
1.873	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
1.715	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
1.677	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
1.600	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
1.511	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
1.508	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
1.506	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
1.493	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
1.453	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
1.347	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.332	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
1.326	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
1.297	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
1.263	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
1.241	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
1.237	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
1.230	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.218	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
1.207	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
1.194	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
1.158	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
1.122	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.121	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
1.104	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
1.026	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
0.977	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
0.954	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.904	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-24)	Continuous
0.893	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
0.817	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
0.817	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
0.798	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
0.784	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
0.779	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
0.769	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.750	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
0.748	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
0.618	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
0.560	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
0.505	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
0.487	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.487	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.487	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.481	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.475	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
0.467	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.467	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.450	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
0.425	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
0.424	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
0.392	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
0.374	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.367	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
0.341	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
0.339	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
0.331	Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?	Binary
0.318	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
0.314	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
0.265	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
0.188	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
0.185	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.174	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
0.112	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
0.110	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
0.064	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
0.063	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
0.063	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.054	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
0.022	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
0.008	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
-	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
-0.045	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-0.129	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-0.153	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-0.225	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-0.233	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-0.288	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-0.330	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-0.713	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-1.466	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-1.868	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-2.236	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-2.867	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
-3.564	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-9.231	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-13.837	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
-15.537	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
-15.580	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
-17.858	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-22.614	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-26.838	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-32.177	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
-115.137	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous