175.736 | What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
154.272 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 25) | Continuous |
140.287 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 4) | Continuous |
137.689 | On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak? | Continuous |
135.337 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
135.189 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
134.390 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
131.621 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
119.368 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
114.268 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 18) | Continuous |
110.320 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022) | Continuous |
109.483 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (May 14) | Continuous |
109.142 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19) | Continuous |
108.051 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022? | Continuous |
104.341 | How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022? | Continuous |
99.199 | What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
98.158 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (May 14) | Continuous |
98.137 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan) | Binary |
98.131 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5) | Continuous |
97.718 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo) | Binary |
97.718 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire) | Binary |
97.611 | What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
96.745 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022? | Binary |
96.175 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove) | Binary |
96.006 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone) | Binary |
96.006 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania) | Binary |
95.733 | Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? | Binary |
95.586 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi) | Binary |
95.550 | Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023? | Binary |
95.549 | Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023? | Binary |
95.548 | Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023? | Binary |
95.449 | Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
95.189 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia) | Binary |
95.148 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
95.031 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua) | Binary |
94.912 | Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023? | Binary |
94.870 | Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023? | Binary |
94.870 | Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
94.856 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
94.855 | Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
94.797 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022) | Binary |
94.668 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
94.572 | Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022? | Binary |
94.536 | Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022? | Binary |
94.253 | Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis) | Binary |
94.253 | Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber) | Binary |
94.253 | Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison) | Binary |
94.069 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau) | Binary |
94.017 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab) | Binary |
93.880 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea) | Binary |
93.712 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
93.658 | Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre) | Binary |
93.472 | Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023? | Binary |
93.342 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker) | Binary |
93.147 | Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023? | Binary |
92.899 | By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine? | Binary |
92.671 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5) | Continuous |
92.381 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
92.318 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
92.132 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹) | Binary |
91.941 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
91.941 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola) | Binary |
91.941 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco) | Binary |
91.898 | Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? | Binary |
91.391 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea) | Binary |
91.391 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia) | Binary |
91.391 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal) | Binary |
91.352 | Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022? | Binary |
91.330 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? | Binary |
90.995 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe) | Binary |
90.899 | Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023? | Binary |
90.631 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
90.576 | [Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December? | Binary |
90.491 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
90.127 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia) | Binary |
89.812 | Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? | Binary |
89.701 | Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022? | Binary |
89.126 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022? | Binary |
89.030 | Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
89.016 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023? | Binary |
88.512 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
88.512 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid) | Binary |
88.511 | Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022? | Binary |
88.441 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco) | Binary |
87.998 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR) | Binary |
87.984 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia) | Binary |
87.845 | Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
87.772 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR) | Binary |
87.772 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $) | Binary |
87.661 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies) | Binary |
87.255 | Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023? | Binary |
87.237 | Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? | Binary |
86.992 | Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022? | Binary |
86.991 | Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
86.784 | Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest) | Binary |
86.710 | Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus? | Binary |
86.647 | Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023? | Binary |
86.492 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala) | Binary |
86.492 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras) | Binary |
86.254 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio? | Binary |
85.696 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023? | Binary |
85.670 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda) | Binary |
85.576 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal) | Binary |
85.347 | Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022? | Binary |
85.298 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon) | Binary |
85.298 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland)) | Binary |
85.298 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho) | Binary |
85.251 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022? | Continuous |
85.234 | Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023? | Binary |
85.202 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR) | Binary |
85.059 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Diego Padres) | Binary |
84.853 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands) | Binary |
84.764 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea) | Binary |
84.726 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland) | Binary |
84.264 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea) | Binary |
84.253 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥) | Binary |
84.229 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador) | Binary |
84.198 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan) | Binary |
84.155 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti) | Binary |
83.794 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal) | Binary |
83.736 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland) | Binary |
83.700 | Will Tether collapse before 2023? | Binary |
83.338 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia) | Binary |
83.249 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America) | Binary |
83.203 | Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023? | Binary |
83.085 | Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023? | Binary |
82.884 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia) | Binary |
82.884 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon) | Binary |
82.812 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana) | Binary |
82.811 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay) | Binary |
82.712 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania) | Binary |
82.712 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi) | Binary |
82.712 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya) | Binary |
82.527 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cleveland Guardians) | Binary |
82.410 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica) | Binary |
81.860 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
81.860 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark) | Binary |
81.860 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia) | Binary |
81.860 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico) | Binary |
81.817 | Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)? | Binary |
81.616 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €) | Binary |
81.591 | Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022? | Binary |
81.482 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador) | Binary |
81.482 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran) | Binary |
81.481 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales) | Binary |
81.090 | Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election? | Binary |
81.002 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022? | Continuous |
80.680 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners) | Binary |
80.527 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal) | Binary |
80.522 | Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024? | Binary |
80.507 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada) | Binary |
80.385 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin) | Binary |
80.080 | Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion? | Binary |
80.058 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt) | Binary |
79.990 | Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district? | Binary |
79.577 | What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28? | Continuous |
79.521 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar) | Binary |
79.447 | Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving? | Binary |
79.172 | When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk? | Continuous |
78.669 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France) | Binary |
78.458 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳) | Binary |
77.615 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR) | Binary |
77.534 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium) | Binary |
77.498 | By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light? | Binary |
77.257 | What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual? | Continuous |
76.807 | Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022? | Binary |
76.723 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022? | Binary |
76.567 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Tampa Bay Rays) | Binary |
76.567 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (St. Louis Cardinals) | Binary |
75.926 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Atlanta Braves) | Binary |
75.126 | How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022? | Continuous |
74.991 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England) | Binary |
74.378 | Will Niger experience a coup before 2023? | Binary |
74.338 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp) | Binary |
74.289 | Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023? | Binary |
73.805 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Minnesota Twins) | Binary |
73.805 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago White Sox) | Binary |
73.805 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Boston Red Sox) | Binary |
73.804 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Francisco Giants) | Binary |
73.804 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cincinnati Reds) | Binary |
73.719 | Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022? | Binary |
73.595 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics) | Binary |
73.595 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Texas Rangers) | Binary |
73.594 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Detroit Tigers) | Binary |
73.594 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Kansas City Royals) | Binary |
73.593 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Baltimore Orioles) | Binary |
73.593 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Pittsburgh Pirates) | Binary |
73.593 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks) | Binary |
73.593 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies) | Binary |
73.592 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs) | Binary |
73.592 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins) | Binary |
73.592 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals) | Binary |
73.249 | Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023? | Binary |
73.023 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Milwaukee Brewers) | Binary |
72.858 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain) | Binary |
72.367 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (64) | Binary |
72.343 | How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
72.037 | Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | Binary |
71.996 | Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022? | Binary |
71.836 | Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
71.471 | Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022? | Binary |
71.330 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
71.239 | Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022? | Binary |
71.031 | Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023? | Binary |
70.965 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Mets) | Binary |
70.928 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany) | Binary |
70.329 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Toronto Blue Jays) | Binary |
70.279 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Angels) | Binary |
70.113 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19) | Continuous |
69.996 | How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections? | Continuous |
69.891 | Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
69.641 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (May 14) | Continuous |
69.166 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022? | Continuous |
69.099 | Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023? | Binary |
68.829 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023? | Binary |
68.380 | Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League? | Binary |
68.333 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones) | Binary |
68.115 | Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022? | Binary |
67.724 | Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
67.684 | Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022? | Binary |
67.318 | Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022? | Binary |
67.025 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil) | Binary |
65.881 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022? | Continuous |
65.868 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022? | Binary |
65.745 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (July 2) | Continuous |
65.589 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022? | Binary |
65.212 | Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022? | Binary |
65.197 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023? | Binary |
64.832 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez) | Binary |
64.832 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz) | Binary |
64.832 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell) | Binary |
64.832 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton) | Binary |
64.591 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023? | Binary |
63.979 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 11) | Continuous |
63.500 | Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022? | Binary |
63.467 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
63.180 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Yankees) | Binary |
62.812 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022? | Binary |
62.464 | In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack? | Continuous |
62.144 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5) | Continuous |
61.954 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (61) | Binary |
61.445 | Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
61.386 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022? | Continuous |
61.235 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30) | Continuous |
60.987 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022? | Continuous |
60.971 | Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons? | Binary |
60.933 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł) | Binary |
60.927 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$) | Binary |
60.353 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022? | Continuous |
60.323 | Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
59.752 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah) | Binary |
59.640 | Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Teimour Radjabov) | Binary |
59.640 | Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
59.225 | Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | Binary |
58.973 | Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election? | Binary |
58.955 | Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Richárd Rapport) | Binary |
58.081 | Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022? | Binary |
58.062 | Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023? | Binary |
57.921 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea) | Binary |
57.791 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Dodgers) | Binary |
57.734 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿) | Binary |
56.985 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc) | Binary |
56.426 | How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022? | Continuous |
56.421 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022? | Continuous |
56.410 | Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections? | Binary |
56.136 | Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ding Liren) | Binary |
56.071 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022? | Continuous |
55.980 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19) | Continuous |
55.376 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5) | Continuous |
54.805 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022? | Continuous |
54.664 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (63) | Binary |
54.636 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image? | Binary |
54.610 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure) | Binary |
54.372 | Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02? | Binary |
54.288 | What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022? | Continuous |
53.898 | Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023? | Binary |
53.754 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022? | Continuous |
53.688 | If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Drew Ferguson) | Binary |
53.484 | Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia? | Binary |
53.298 | How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
53.224 | [Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday? | Binary |
52.572 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022? | Continuous |
52.333 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India) | Binary |
52.322 | Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022? | Binary |
52.147 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022) | Continuous |
52.107 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022? | Continuous |
52.099 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 25) | Continuous |
51.671 | How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023? | Continuous |
51.315 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5) | Continuous |
51.288 | Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
51.245 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022? | Continuous |
50.891 | How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022? | Continuous |
50.374 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
49.995 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
49.905 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦) | Binary |
49.533 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022) | Continuous |
49.107 | Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022? | Binary |
48.790 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022) | Continuous |
48.589 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022? | Continuous |
48.415 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo) | Binary |
48.352 | Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies? | Binary |
48.018 | Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest? | Binary |
47.889 | Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
47.242 | How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022? | Continuous |
46.615 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 9, 2022 and July 2, 2022? | Continuous |
46.409 | How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022? | Continuous |
46.279 | Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
46.050 | Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
45.422 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022? | Binary |
45.244 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (July 2) | Continuous |
44.909 | [short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
44.842 | Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023? | Binary |
44.539 | What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022) | Continuous |
44.536 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
43.674 | Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
43.596 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022? | Continuous |
43.256 | Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022? | Binary |
43.053 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30) | Continuous |
42.613 | Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022? | Binary |
42.196 | Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023? | Binary |
42.145 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022? | Continuous |
41.589 | What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump? | Continuous |
41.540 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19) | Continuous |
41.484 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
41.063 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
41.063 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Matthias Blübaum) | Binary |
41.063 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hjörvar Steinn Grétarsson) | Binary |
40.992 | How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022? | Continuous |
40.943 | If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Jim Banks) | Binary |
40.705 | Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | Binary |
40.659 | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | Continuous |
40.547 | Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022? | Binary |
40.509 | Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter? | Binary |
40.426 | What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022? | Continuous |
40.185 | How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
40.140 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30) | Continuous |
39.937 | In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher? | Binary |
38.765 | If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Tom Emmer) | Binary |
38.479 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19) | Continuous |
38.023 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽) | Binary |
37.785 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022) | Continuous |
37.570 | How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update? | Continuous |
37.390 | Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election? | Binary |
37.209 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen) | Binary |
37.183 | How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022? | Continuous |
37.097 | Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022? | Binary |
37.016 | Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto? | Binary |
36.517 | Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania? | Binary |
36.170 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Argentine Peso $) | Binary |
35.927 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
35.825 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022) | Continuous |
35.634 | Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? | Binary |
35.002 | How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022? | Continuous |
34.433 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Wesley So) | Binary |
34.299 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5) | Continuous |
34.119 | Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022? | Binary |
33.936 | When will China end Covid Zero? | Continuous |
33.713 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022? | Continuous |
33.585 | Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded? | Binary |
33.528 | Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
33.467 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
33.269 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2022) | Continuous |
33.218 | What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
32.675 | If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto? | Binary |
32.619 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19) | Continuous |
32.479 | What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022? | Continuous |
32.458 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022? | Binary |
32.445 | [Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (October 2022) | Continuous |
32.132 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022? | Binary |
31.472 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
31.318 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022? | Continuous |
31.298 | Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022? | Binary |
31.279 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022? | Continuous |
31.247 | What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
30.493 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (July 2) | Continuous |
30.396 | Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022? | Binary |
30.264 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos) | Binary |
30.136 | Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022? | Binary |
30.001 | Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022? | Binary |
29.586 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5) | Continuous |
28.891 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
28.268 | What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023? | Continuous |
28.173 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5) | Continuous |
27.860 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5) | Continuous |
27.851 | Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district? | Binary |
27.107 | Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022? | Binary |
26.878 | What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022? | Continuous |
26.871 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022? | Binary |
26.748 | Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022? | Binary |
26.745 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022? | Continuous |
26.374 | What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022? | Continuous |
25.808 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022) | Continuous |
25.587 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16) | Continuous |
25.562 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
25.559 | Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona? | Binary |
25.180 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16) | Continuous |
24.990 | Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022? | Binary |
24.836 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 31) | Continuous |
24.605 | What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question? | Continuous |
23.669 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 31) | Continuous |
23.342 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 25) | Continuous |
23.313 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022) | Continuous |
23.162 | What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022? | Continuous |
22.629 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 31) | Continuous |
22.556 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 31) | Continuous |
22.451 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19) | Continuous |
22.420 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2) | Continuous |
21.809 | Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022? | Binary |
21.716 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022? | Continuous |
21.605 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 11) | Continuous |
21.546 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19) | Continuous |
21.223 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
21.087 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 31) | Continuous |
21.063 | Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen) | Binary |
20.872 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022? | Binary |
20.691 | Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) | Binary |
20.308 | Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI? | Binary |
19.747 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga) | Binary |
19.733 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
19.715 | Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022? | Binary |
19.582 | Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration? | Binary |
19.212 | Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne) | Binary |
19.189 | Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US? | Binary |
19.158 | [Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard? | Continuous |
18.597 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
18.592 | Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court? | Binary |
18.572 | Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone? | Binary |
18.342 | What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question? | Continuous |
18.319 | What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
18.302 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022? | Continuous |
18.231 | How many new Pokemon will Pokemon Scarlet and Violet introduce? | Continuous |
18.102 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 18) | Continuous |
17.868 | Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023? | Binary |
17.849 | Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada? | Binary |
17.846 | Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022? | Binary |
17.755 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 18) | Continuous |
17.145 | Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022? | Binary |
17.070 | Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023? | Binary |
16.640 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (July 2) | Continuous |
16.481 | Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022? | Binary |
16.411 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)) | Binary |
16.004 | How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022? | Continuous |
15.522 | Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022? | Binary |
15.135 | How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022? | Continuous |
15.075 | Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023? | Binary |
14.942 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022? | Continuous |
14.320 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16) | Continuous |
14.017 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022? | Continuous |
13.718 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022? | Continuous |
13.638 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 31) | Continuous |
13.350 | What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine? | Continuous |
12.257 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022? | Continuous |
12.165 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 25) | Continuous |
11.828 | Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022? | Binary |
11.059 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022? | Continuous |
10.991 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."? | Continuous |
10.836 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor) | Binary |
10.315 | Will Russia default on its debt in 2022? | Binary |
9.758 | By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments? | Binary |
9.556 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22) | Continuous |
9.298 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 11) | Continuous |
9.259 | If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN? | Continuous |
8.838 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22) | Continuous |
8.506 | How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
8.041 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?” | Continuous |
8.017 | What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022? | Continuous |
7.782 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022? | Continuous |
7.447 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22) | Continuous |
6.025 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16) | Continuous |
5.954 | Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022? | Binary |
5.762 | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023? | Binary |
5.556 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16) | Continuous |
5.501 | Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
5.337 | What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary? | Continuous |
5.291 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (July 2) | Continuous |
4.642 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 4) | Continuous |
4.595 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 18) | Continuous |
4.174 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 4) | Continuous |
3.883 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22) | Continuous |
3.821 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 25) | Continuous |
3.534 | How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Wednesday, November 23rd (the day before Thanksgiving), as reported by FlightAware? | Continuous |
3.310 | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022? | Binary |
3.287 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
3.006 | Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022? | Binary |
2.984 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 11) | Continuous |
2.928 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (65) | Binary |
2.472 | Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013? | Binary |
2.419 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 17) | Continuous |
2.395 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 17) | Continuous |
2.085 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 17) | Continuous |
2.075 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 17) | Continuous |
2.046 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 18) | Continuous |
1.995 | Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union? | Binary |
1.956 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 17) | Continuous |
1.709 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (July 2) | Continuous |
1.621 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22) | Continuous |
1.609 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 22nd of April, 2022? | Continuous |
1.200 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 4) | Continuous |
1.136 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 17) | Continuous |
1.018 | Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023? | Binary |
0.785 | When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order? | Continuous |
0.574 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022? | Continuous |
0.442 | When will the 30-days Google Trends interest for the term "China protests" peak? | Continuous |
0.239 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
-0.022 | Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary? | Binary |
-0.796 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 4) | Continuous |
-0.826 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 11) | Continuous |
-0.954 | When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch? | Continuous |
-1.038 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 4) | Continuous |
-1.188 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”? | Continuous |
-2.509 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023? | Binary |
-2.636 | By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk? | Binary |
-3.261 | What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022? | Continuous |
-3.925 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 25) | Continuous |
-4.498 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22) | Continuous |
-4.668 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 11) | Continuous |
-5.341 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda) | Binary |
-6.087 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5) | Continuous |
-6.548 | Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)? | Binary |
-6.768 | Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022? | Binary |
-8.735 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh) | Binary |
-10.235 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5) | Continuous |
-10.799 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan) | Binary |
-11.814 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
-12.851 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022) | Continuous |
-12.856 | What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022? | Continuous |
-13.860 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto) | Binary |
-13.932 | Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
-14.193 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16) | Continuous |
-14.220 | Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
-14.484 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”? | Continuous |
-14.583 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19) | Continuous |
-14.701 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila) | Binary |
-14.796 | Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023? | Binary |
-14.798 | Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023? | Binary |
-15.723 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
-18.740 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 18) | Continuous |
-18.907 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19) | Continuous |
-19.421 | Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election? | Binary |
-19.673 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5) | Continuous |
-21.038 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (May 14) | Continuous |
-23.753 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
-26.059 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”? | Continuous |
-27.042 | Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate? | Continuous |
-27.924 | Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022? | Binary |
-29.395 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022) | Continuous |
-32.641 | Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-34.242 | Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022? | Binary |
-35.154 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss) | Binary |
-35.321 | Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022? | Binary |
-37.106 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 8th and July 1st 2022? | Continuous |
-43.754 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (62) | Binary |
-43.810 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2) | Continuous |
-44.212 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19) | Continuous |
-44.385 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30) | Continuous |
-47.920 | Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass? | Binary |
-48.499 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2) | Continuous |
-52.204 | Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday? | Binary |
-52.725 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
-53.560 | What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022? | Continuous |
-53.962 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2) | Continuous |
-59.234 | [short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022? | Binary |
-61.611 | Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022? | Binary |
-64.088 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19) | Continuous |
-66.401 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨) | Binary |
-70.080 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30) | Continuous |
-76.516 | How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022? | Continuous |
-81.556 | Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022? | Binary |
-87.428 | How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022? | Continuous |
-87.672 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023) | Continuous |
-91.170 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30) | Continuous |
-91.357 | Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
-92.861 | How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded? | Continuous |
-94.458 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2) | Continuous |
-98.048 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer) | Binary |
-102.008 | Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
-105.931 | Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-107.900 | Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate? | Binary |
-108.326 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2) | Continuous |
-109.124 | Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022? | Binary |
-115.700 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E) | Binary |
-116.142 | Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022? | Binary |
-147.093 | Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺) | Binary |
-148.653 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (May 14) | Continuous |
-152.317 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (May 14) | Continuous |
-157.946 | Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022? | Binary |
-172.660 | Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021? | Binary |
-179.886 | [Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards? | Binary |
-202.089 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
-204.936 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina) | Binary |
-206.464 | Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-236.078 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros) | Binary |