| 194.455 | How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023? | Continuous |
| 144.552 | How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
| 122.177 | What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
| 119.014 | Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia? | Continuous |
| 118.943 | How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023? | Continuous |
| 115.823 | When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 115.248 | What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023? | Continuous |
| 105.101 | What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 104.134 | How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 99.899 | When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water? | Continuous |
| 99.530 | How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023? | Continuous |
| 98.820 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1) | Continuous |
| 98.157 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | Binary |
| 98.142 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
| 98.136 | Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.097 | Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
| 98.043 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.627 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
| 97.599 | Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.246 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 96.951 | Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023) | Binary |
| 96.476 | Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 96.232 | Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023? | Binary |
| 95.985 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.923 | What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
| 95.700 | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 95.608 | Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023? | Binary |
| 95.240 | Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.166 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita) | Binary |
| 95.084 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner) | Binary |
| 95.084 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas) | Binary |
| 95.084 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel) | Binary |
| 95.084 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos) | Binary |
| 94.726 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba) | Binary |
| 94.726 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa) | Binary |
| 94.718 | Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 94.572 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left) | Binary |
| 94.572 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition) | Binary |
| 94.572 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation) | Binary |
| 94.572 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050) | Binary |
| 94.504 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.395 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP) | Binary |
| 94.320 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.128 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema) | Binary |
| 93.928 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66) | Binary |
| 93.928 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB) | Binary |
| 93.805 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
| 93.802 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.677 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić) | Binary |
| 93.530 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
| 93.243 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.188 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 93.188 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 92.727 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU) | Binary |
| 92.195 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
| 92.040 | US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
| 91.973 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens) | Binary |
| 91.918 | How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
| 91.136 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens) | Binary |
| 90.330 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement) | Binary |
| 90.330 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15) | Binary |
| 90.330 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left) | Binary |
| 90.236 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 90.213 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens) | Binary |
| 90.210 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 90.116 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg) | Binary |
| 90.116 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 89.971 | Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 89.837 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |
| 89.678 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 89.274 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5) | Binary |
| 89.274 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0) | Binary |
| 88.580 | How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023? | Continuous |
| 88.245 | Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? | Binary |
| 88.205 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis) | Binary |
| 88.205 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai) | Binary |
| 88.200 | Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
| 88.105 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP) | Binary |
| 88.096 | Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023? | Binary |
| 87.987 | Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024 | Binary |
| 87.507 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.197 | Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 86.995 | Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June? | Binary |
| 86.983 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0) | Binary |
| 86.300 | When will the second Starship test flight occur? | Continuous |
| 86.157 | Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 86.156 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
| 85.902 | Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.493 | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | Binary |
| 85.208 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA) | Binary |
| 85.042 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024) | Binary |
| 84.771 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso) | Binary |
| 84.677 | Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th? | Binary |
| 84.523 | Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024? | Binary |
| 83.811 | Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 83.150 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS)) | Binary |
| 83.092 | Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023? | Binary |
| 83.030 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024? | Binary |
| 82.935 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül) | Binary |
| 82.367 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu) | Binary |
| 81.996 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.705 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 81.496 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş) | Binary |
| 80.992 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3) | Continuous |
| 80.649 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023) | Continuous |
| 80.563 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | Binary |
| 80.298 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei) | Binary |
| 80.131 | Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate? | Binary |
| 79.807 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
| 79.641 | Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023? | Binary |
| 79.273 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023) | Continuous |
| 79.176 | Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 78.905 | Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again? | Binary |
| 78.715 | Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
| 78.648 | Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th? | Binary |
| 78.468 | Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 78.438 | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | Binary |
| 78.359 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
| 77.658 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green) | Continuous |
| 77.334 | Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023? | Binary |
| 77.238 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
| 77.042 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia) | Binary |
| 76.216 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 75.956 | Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party? | Binary |
| 75.593 | Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023? | Binary |
| 75.422 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT) | Continuous |
| 75.030 | Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024? | Binary |
| 74.417 | Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 74.185 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17) | Continuous |
| 74.095 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan) | Binary |
| 74.077 | Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024? | Binary |
| 73.780 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National) | Continuous |
| 73.710 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed) | Binary |
| 73.202 | Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 73.111 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6) | Continuous |
| 73.110 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20) | Continuous |
| 72.464 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden) | Binary |
| 72.001 | Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 71.056 | Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season? | Binary |
| 70.228 | Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 70.128 | Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)? | Binary |
| 69.844 | Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023? | Binary |
| 68.989 | Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List? | Binary |
| 68.873 | Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023? | Binary |
| 68.750 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England) | Binary |
| 68.643 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 67.402 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29) | Continuous |
| 67.149 | Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon? | Binary |
| 66.679 | What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25) | Continuous |
| 66.461 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia) | Binary |
| 64.990 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France) | Binary |
| 64.868 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar) | Binary |
| 64.786 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
| 64.273 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks) | Binary |
| 63.202 | Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards? | Binary |
| 63.145 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan) | Binary |
| 62.448 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands) | Binary |
| 62.169 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023) | Continuous |
| 62.001 | Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023? | Binary |
| 61.927 | How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season? | Continuous |
| 61.640 | Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023? | Binary |
| 61.363 | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
| 61.315 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 61.115 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1) | Binary |
| 60.921 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers) | Binary |
| 60.555 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti) | Binary |
| 60.555 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman) | Binary |
| 60.483 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | Binary |
| 59.764 | What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023? | Continuous |
| 58.969 | Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023? | Binary |
| 58.676 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform) | Binary |
| 58.586 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi) | Binary |
| 58.451 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | Binary |
| 58.161 | Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023? | Binary |
| 57.860 | Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections? | Binary |
| 57.839 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22) | Continuous |
| 57.740 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | Binary |
| 57.573 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1) | Binary |
| 57.065 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars) | Binary |
| 56.724 | Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country? | Binary |
| 56.260 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
| 56.080 | Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate? | Binary |
| 55.599 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL) | Binary |
| 55.457 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich) | Binary |
| 55.070 | Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023? | Binary |
| 54.969 | Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023? | Binary |
| 54.795 | How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023? | Continuous |
| 54.689 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
| 54.680 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco) | Binary |
| 54.440 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica) | Binary |
| 54.192 | How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023? | Continuous |
| 54.024 | What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023? | Continuous |
| 54.003 | Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting? | Binary |
| 53.673 | Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022? | Binary |
| 52.902 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 52.548 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
| 51.778 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark) | Binary |
| 51.654 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
| 51.533 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria) | Binary |
| 51.475 | Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024? | Binary |
| 51.337 | Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 51.249 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | Binary |
| 51.201 | How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023? | Continuous |
| 51.072 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023? | Binary |
| 50.935 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5) | Binary |
| 50.531 | Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023? | Binary |
| 49.707 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15) | Continuous |
| 49.568 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (June 2023) | Continuous |
| 49.454 | Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023? | Binary |
| 49.213 | How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
| 48.917 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
| 48.886 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
| 48.659 | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | Binary |
| 48.565 | Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law? | Binary |
| 48.355 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 48.091 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
| 47.803 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa) | Binary |
| 47.582 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
| 47.474 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 47.264 | What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
| 47.231 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 47.042 | Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022? | Binary |
| 46.854 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 46.848 | What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release? | Continuous |
| 46.114 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes) | Binary |
| 45.782 | Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year? | Binary |
| 45.724 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway) | Binary |
| 45.417 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
| 45.388 | How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023? | Continuous |
| 45.357 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland) | Binary |
| 45.069 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R)) | Binary |
| 44.839 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| 44.794 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD) | Binary |
| 44.375 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | Binary |
| 43.954 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Nov-2023) | Continuous |
| 43.619 | Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29? | Binary |
| 43.581 | What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023? | Continuous |
| 43.479 | What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget? | Continuous |
| 42.941 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei) | Binary |
| 42.895 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |
| 42.514 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 42.477 | Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years)) | Binary |
| 42.395 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |
| 42.309 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Binary |
| 42.293 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
| 41.198 | Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize? | Binary |
| 41.190 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2) | Binary |
| 40.836 | What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11) | Continuous |
| 40.656 | Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class? | Binary |
| 40.602 | Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023? | Binary |
| 40.313 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros) | Binary |
| 39.945 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 39.921 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 39.903 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams) | Binary |
| 39.731 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea) | Binary |
| 39.341 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf) | Binary |
| 39.273 | Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.237 | Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election? | Binary |
| 39.191 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 38.696 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies) | Binary |
| 38.602 | Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7? | Binary |
| 38.386 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
| 38.365 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | Binary |
| 38.049 | [Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023? | Binary |
| 37.925 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori) | Continuous |
| 37.719 | What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023? | Continuous |
| 37.475 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers) | Binary |
| 37.163 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy) | Binary |
| 36.918 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 36.918 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina) | Binary |
| 36.803 | What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
| 36.577 | Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
| 36.309 | Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024? | Binary |
| 36.122 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 36.043 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany) | Binary |
| 36.014 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
| 36.008 | Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 35.940 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |
| 35.940 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
| 35.940 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
| 35.927 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |
| 35.927 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |
| 35.927 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
| 35.927 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
| 35.250 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs) | Binary |
| 35.040 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox) | Binary |
| 35.040 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos) | Binary |
| 34.727 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu) | Binary |
| 34.367 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils) | Binary |
| 34.350 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti) | Binary |
| 34.350 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China) | Binary |
| 33.914 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight? | Binary |
| 33.738 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal) | Binary |
| 33.486 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC) | Binary |
| 32.583 | Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024? | Binary |
| 32.465 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023? | Continuous |
| 32.289 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States) | Binary |
| 31.170 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada) | Binary |
| 30.363 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 29.803 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024? | Binary |
| 29.327 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
| 29.206 | What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023? | Continuous |
| 29.205 | What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25) | Continuous |
| 29.019 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 28.675 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |
| 28.431 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 28.123 | What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023? | Continuous |
| 27.990 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines) | Binary |
| 27.412 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand) | Binary |
| 27.365 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |
| 26.504 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R)) | Binary |
| 26.448 | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | Binary |
| 26.312 | Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election? | Binary |
| 26.262 | Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days? | Binary |
| 26.042 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |
| 26.030 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
| 25.589 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R)) | Binary |
| 25.446 | In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012? | Binary |
| 25.396 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama) | Binary |
| 25.294 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |
| 24.837 | Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023? | Binary |
| 24.772 | Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th? | Binary |
| 24.766 | Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023? | Binary |
| 24.737 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |
| 24.398 | Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023? | Continuous |
| 24.386 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |
| 24.071 | What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024? | Continuous |
| 23.701 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP)) | Binary |
| 23.413 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |
| 23.237 | What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023? | Continuous |
| 23.189 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings) | Binary |
| 23.156 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |
| 23.009 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |
| 22.930 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |
| 22.406 | How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023? | Continuous |
| 22.303 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |
| 21.444 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
| 20.576 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |
| 20.215 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023) | Continuous |
| 20.019 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 19.937 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland) | Binary |
| 19.756 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
| 19.613 | Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote? | Binary |
| 19.568 | Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023? | Binary |
| 19.430 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 18.798 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 18.444 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |
| 18.206 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23) | Continuous |
| 18.162 | Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 18.079 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild) | Binary |
| 18.042 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 17.946 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings) | Binary |
| 17.853 | Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023? | Binary |
| 17.820 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers) | Binary |
| 17.637 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche) | Binary |
| 17.588 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 17.577 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |
| 17.500 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |
| 17.281 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |
| 17.097 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |
| 16.591 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning) | Binary |
| 16.561 | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 16.341 | Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety? | Binary |
| 16.219 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica) | Binary |
| 16.219 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia) | Binary |
| 16.218 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 16.159 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |
| 16.015 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023? | Continuous |
| 15.952 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
| 15.823 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |
| 15.639 | "Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 15.361 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins) | Binary |
| 15.271 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.237 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |
| 15.192 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins) | Binary |
| 15.170 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R)) | Binary |
| 15.170 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R)) | Binary |
| 15.043 | Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023? | Binary |
| 14.855 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 14.753 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves) | Binary |
| 14.677 | Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | Binary |
| 14.292 | Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024? | Binary |
| 14.154 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers) | Binary |
| 13.828 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 13.779 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa) | Binary |
| 13.594 | Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023? | Binary |
| 13.266 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
| 13.256 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.248 | Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.206 | Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.126 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |
| 13.097 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
| 12.759 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |
| 12.751 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.415 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2) | Binary |
| 12.123 | How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election? | Continuous |
| 12.082 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
| 11.946 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Baltimore Orioles) | Binary |
| 11.708 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D)) | Binary |
| 11.708 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D)) | Binary |
| 11.708 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D)) | Binary |
| 11.704 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |
| 11.494 | When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives? | Continuous |
| 11.404 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |
| 10.960 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D)) | Binary |
| 10.869 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |
| 10.572 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
| 10.387 | When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT? | Continuous |
| 9.873 | What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 9.736 | Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List? | Binary |
| 9.646 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D)) | Binary |
| 9.590 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D)) | Binary |
| 9.464 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |
| 9.043 | Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023? | Binary |
| 8.816 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D)) | Binary |
| 8.816 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D)) | Binary |
| 8.816 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D)) | Binary |
| 8.816 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)) | Binary |
| 8.490 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
| 8.149 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
| 8.084 | Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023? | Binary |
| 7.847 | How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th? | Continuous |
| 7.346 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes) | Binary |
| 7.269 | How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 14) | Continuous |
| 7.210 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.138 | Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.823 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
| 6.795 | Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time? | Binary |
| 6.270 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023) | Binary |
| 5.669 | When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19? | Continuous |
| 4.691 | Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship? | Binary |
| 4.615 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |
| 3.812 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |
| 3.804 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.576 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 3.571 | What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.507 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |
| 3.394 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |
| 3.156 | Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023? | Binary |
| 3.108 | When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states? | Continuous |
| 3.054 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |
| 2.887 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |
| 2.607 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE) | Binary |
| 2.164 | What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.061 | Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)? | Binary |
| 1.636 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) | Binary |
| 1.077 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |
| 0.715 | When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace? | Continuous |
| 0.619 | [Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? | Continuous |
| 0.470 | ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.469 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.273 | Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -0.717 | When will Joe Biden issue his third veto? | Continuous |
| -0.937 | When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults? | Continuous |
| -1.770 | Next US Speaker of the House? (Jim Jordan (R)) (No) → US Government Shutdown Before 2024? | Binary |
| -1.811 | How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023? | Continuous |
| -1.985 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -2.009 | In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0? | Continuous |
| -2.080 | Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -2.125 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | Binary |
| -2.332 | Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -3.698 | Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023? | Binary |
| -4.969 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
| -5.227 | Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024? | Binary |
| -5.498 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |
| -6.854 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2024) | Continuous |
| -7.807 | Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -8.314 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26) | Continuous |
| -9.915 | What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8) | Continuous |
| -10.467 | Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season? | Continuous |
| -12.519 | Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012? | Binary |
| -13.186 | Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024? | Binary |
| -14.076 | Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season? | Binary |
| -16.739 | Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%? | Binary |
| -18.000 | Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election? | Binary |
| -19.509 | Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024? | Binary |
| -20.386 | What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election? | Continuous |
| -23.120 | When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory? | Continuous |
| -23.294 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -23.329 | What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections? | Continuous |
| -23.749 | Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023? | Binary |
| -25.037 | Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023? | Binary |
| -25.068 | Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023? | Binary |
| -29.030 | How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation? | Continuous |
| -30.390 | Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
| -30.390 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
| -34.219 | How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28? | Continuous |
| -34.494 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González) | Binary |
| -37.406 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -37.809 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
| -40.396 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -43.991 | Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024? | Binary |
| -44.335 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |
| -45.192 | Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff? | Binary |
| -48.079 | Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -48.553 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3) | Binary |
| -51.727 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín) | Binary |
| -52.672 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
| -53.075 | Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional? | Binary |
| -59.348 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -60.581 | Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023? | Binary |
| -77.049 | Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist? | Binary |
| -86.879 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R)) | Binary |
| -89.419 | Next US Speaker of the House? (Steve Scalise (R)) (No) → US Government Shutdown Before 2024? | Binary |
| -90.579 | Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election? | Binary |
| -93.973 | Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow? | Binary |
| -113.078 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| -123.869 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers) | Binary |
| -148.351 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left) | Binary |
| -149.840 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -181.352 | Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023? | Binary |
| -225.025 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain) | Binary |
| -237.885 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights) | Binary |
| -295.956 | Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years)) | Binary |
| -319.229 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
| -389.825 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU) | Binary |
| -537.917 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV) | Binary |