| 142.571 | When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions? | Continuous |
| 126.867 | Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft? | Continuous |
| 120.024 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
| 118.519 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2023) | Continuous |
| 116.658 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| 112.502 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
| 106.250 | How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024? | Continuous |
| 105.346 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 98.457 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 98.451 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
| 98.439 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
| 98.376 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
| 98.344 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
| 98.282 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
| 98.271 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
| 97.937 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.895 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.883 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.688 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.392 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 96.937 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
| 96.877 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
| 96.759 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
| 96.549 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.517 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
| 95.859 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.683 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 95.646 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
| 95.393 | How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing? | Continuous |
| 94.923 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 94.695 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
| 94.470 | Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021? | Binary |
| 94.358 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 93.862 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 92.808 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
| 92.406 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
| 92.406 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
| 92.246 | What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 90.991 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 90.892 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
| 90.892 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
| 90.892 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
| 90.892 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
| 90.892 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
| 90.892 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
| 90.892 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
| 90.892 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
| 90.783 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 90.498 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
| 89.604 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
| 89.582 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 89.485 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| 89.285 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
| 89.265 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
| 88.876 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 88.140 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
| 88.034 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
| 87.704 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 87.130 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
| 86.813 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
| 86.395 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
| 86.395 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
| 86.362 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 85.882 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 85.765 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
| 85.502 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
| 85.003 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan) | Continuous |
| 84.888 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 84.850 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
| 84.458 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 84.432 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.264 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
| 84.143 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 84.141 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
| 84.054 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 83.948 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| 83.689 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
| 83.581 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
| 83.518 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 83.345 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
| 82.838 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
| 82.676 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
| 82.367 | Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024? | Binary |
| 82.226 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| 82.123 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
| 81.983 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
| 81.752 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
| 81.619 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
| 81.601 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 81.562 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 81.378 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 81.341 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 81.299 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
| 80.785 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 80.299 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
| 80.196 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
| 79.868 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 79.842 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 79.820 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti) | Binary |
| 79.800 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 79.709 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
| 79.525 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 79.356 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 79.237 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 79.214 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 79.160 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 79.142 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
| 77.777 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 77.603 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 77.516 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
| 77.285 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 76.753 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
| 76.200 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
| 76.198 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
| 76.191 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 76.121 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 76.115 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 75.770 | How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022? | Continuous |
| 75.659 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| 75.628 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz) | Binary |
| 75.295 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.232 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 75.130 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 74.984 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 74.940 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Binary |
| 74.940 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Binary |
| 74.660 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
| 74.638 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Binary |
| 74.638 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Binary |
| 74.562 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 74.362 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
| 74.181 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ) | Binary |
| 74.181 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas) | Binary |
| 74.168 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 73.868 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 73.386 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 73.350 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist) | Binary |
| 73.350 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List) | Binary |
| 73.252 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Binary |
| 73.252 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Binary |
| 73.252 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Binary |
| 73.252 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Binary |
| 73.252 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Binary |
| 72.965 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia) | Continuous |
| 72.957 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 72.937 | Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election? | Binary |
| 71.956 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 71.956 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 71.879 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 71.827 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 71.778 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 71.196 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy) | Binary |
| 71.122 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| 71.051 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 70.932 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 70.890 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 70.887 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 70.863 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
| 70.414 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor) | Binary |
| 70.414 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu) | Binary |
| 69.971 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope) | Binary |
| 69.482 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
| 69.050 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 68.622 | When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts? | Continuous |
| 68.585 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 68.138 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
| 68.117 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti) | Continuous |
| 68.109 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 68.107 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| 68.005 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 67.785 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
| 67.325 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 67.184 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 67.182 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 66.711 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
| 66.480 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan) | Continuous |
| 66.439 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 66.184 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 65.481 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
| 65.212 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | Binary |
| 65.063 | Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 64.811 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023) | Continuous |
| 64.716 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 63.643 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection? | Binary |
| 63.242 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 63.193 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 63.144 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
| 62.903 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 62.648 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 62.253 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 61.711 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023) | Continuous |
| 61.705 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23) | Continuous |
| 61.306 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
| 61.283 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 61.230 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
| 60.940 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 60.852 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 60.343 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| 60.216 | What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 59.640 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| 59.304 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 59.173 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White) | Binary |
| 59.010 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 58.595 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking) | Binary |
| 58.323 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 57.941 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
| 57.701 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23) | Continuous |
| 57.235 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 57.175 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 56.791 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23) | Continuous |
| 56.584 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 56.338 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 56.152 | How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 55.629 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment) | Binary |
| 55.390 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| 55.389 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 55.157 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 54.997 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
| 54.967 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka) | Continuous |
| 54.912 | Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 54.275 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 53.111 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 52.271 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon) | Continuous |
| 52.091 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
| 51.936 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 51.739 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda) | Continuous |
| 51.732 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 51.691 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 51.432 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 51.411 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit) | Binary |
| 50.433 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
| 50.156 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 50.104 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 49.905 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 48.836 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid) | Binary |
| 48.706 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
| 48.338 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 47.953 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 47.750 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23) | Continuous |
| 43.912 | How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023? | Continuous |
| 43.071 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 42.653 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
| 42.172 | What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024? | Continuous |
| 41.081 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
| 41.069 | Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? | Binary |
| 39.839 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.630 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
| 39.460 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 39.182 | What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 39.005 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
| 38.771 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
| 37.985 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
| 37.885 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 37.512 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
| 36.990 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 36.870 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
| 36.600 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
| 36.436 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 36.050 | In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell? | Continuous |
| 35.779 | What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023? | Continuous |
| 35.244 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 33.443 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 33.175 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 32.547 | How many satellites will be deployed in 2022? | Continuous |
| 32.209 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
| 31.957 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 31.840 | How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024? | Continuous |
| 31.598 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 31.587 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 31.358 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 30.962 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
| 30.330 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23) | Continuous |
| 29.402 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| 28.839 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 28.793 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
| 27.984 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 27.890 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation) | Binary |
| 27.875 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 26.486 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 26.104 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
| 25.636 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 24.758 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 23.953 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.892 | How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022? | Continuous |
| 23.787 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
| 23.624 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23) | Continuous |
| 23.588 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 23.528 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23) | Continuous |
| 22.464 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Continuous |
| 21.728 | How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season? | Continuous |
| 21.424 | What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics? | Continuous |
| 20.864 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 20.768 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
| 20.250 | How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)? | Continuous |
| 19.621 | How many people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 18.259 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 18.169 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23) | Continuous |
| 17.163 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.067 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
| 16.617 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
| 16.420 | Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022? | Binary |
| 16.243 | How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024? | Continuous |
| 15.843 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 15.509 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
| 14.836 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
| 14.094 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| 13.531 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 13.200 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| 12.685 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| 12.653 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
| 12.310 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 11.145 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 10.939 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
| 9.447 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
| 8.792 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
| 8.724 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline) | Binary |
| 7.949 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
| 7.582 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q2) | Continuous |
| 7.558 | Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023? | Binary |
| 7.290 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor? | Continuous |
| 6.215 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
| 6.014 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 5.977 | Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public) | Binary |
| 5.911 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23) | Continuous |
| 5.781 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23) | Continuous |
| 5.656 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 5.285 | What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022? | Continuous |
| 5.190 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
| 4.937 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
| 4.858 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
| 4.687 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| 4.026 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
| 3.798 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| 3.716 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
| 3.678 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 2.938 | How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.567 | When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA? | Continuous |
| 1.680 | What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.298 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023) | Continuous |
| 1.242 | When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day? | Continuous |
| 1.230 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Continuous |
| 0.801 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
| 0.714 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
| 0.714 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
| 0.714 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
| 0.711 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
| 0.612 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
| 0.576 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
| 0.383 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23) | Continuous |
| 0.150 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
| -0.074 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
| -0.225 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -0.237 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -1.276 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -1.779 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
| -1.809 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -2.057 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
| -2.145 | Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024? | Binary |
| -2.712 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
| -4.405 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -4.428 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
| -4.752 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -4.906 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| -5.600 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -5.647 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
| -5.683 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
| -6.913 | Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? | Binary |
| -7.217 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
| -7.281 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -7.619 | What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi? | Continuous |
| -9.282 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| -9.630 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
| -11.106 | Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)? | Continuous |
| -14.549 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -15.997 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -16.114 | Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report? | Binary |
| -16.297 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | Binary |
| -17.017 | What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be? | Continuous |
| -17.042 | What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -21.655 | What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| -21.824 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
| -25.591 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| -26.296 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
| -27.829 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
| -28.835 | When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude? | Continuous |
| -28.960 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| -29.260 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| -29.535 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
| -33.585 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
| -42.465 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
| -48.832 | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024? | Binary |
| -49.149 | Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024? | Binary |
| -50.416 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -56.178 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
| -56.648 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -62.744 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
| -63.419 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
| -68.924 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -72.251 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | Binary |
| -73.660 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
| -75.937 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| -77.045 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -81.966 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| -83.208 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| -86.686 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
| -87.591 | How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024? | Continuous |
| -87.670 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
| -89.196 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
| -91.856 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
| -94.323 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
| -113.614 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
| -119.821 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -120.774 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -132.381 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| -145.378 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
| -155.894 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
| -219.186 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| -231.484 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -339.767 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| -352.934 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| -488.685 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |