| 199.279 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 165.123 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
| 156.346 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 153.932 | What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 136.246 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 132.995 | On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)? | Continuous |
| 132.589 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 131.484 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min) | Continuous |
| 129.888 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 129.876 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min) | Continuous |
| 126.530 | What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 125.978 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49? | Continuous |
| 125.746 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 123.565 | How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? | Continuous |
| 122.819 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min) | Continuous |
| 122.017 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 119.204 | How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 117.127 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015? | Continuous |
| 115.526 | When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? | Continuous |
| 114.253 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 109.211 | When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0? | Continuous |
| 108.390 | How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 107.741 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 107.178 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 105.741 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 104.064 | How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report? | Continuous |
| 102.447 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
| 100.720 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 98.336 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.329 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 98.323 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.323 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 98.323 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 98.250 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 98.210 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 98.164 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.149 | By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 98.112 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 98.068 | When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.978 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 97.971 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 97.942 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.939 | When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed? | Continuous |
| 97.917 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 97.917 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 97.870 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 97.555 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 97.375 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.349 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 97.340 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.108 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 96.992 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 96.973 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.936 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 96.936 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 96.634 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 96.631 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 96.614 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.582 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.577 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 96.569 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 96.538 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 96.456 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 96.429 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 96.428 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 96.399 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 96.394 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.319 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 96.255 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 96.245 | What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? | Continuous |
| 96.219 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 96.144 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.117 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 96.072 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 95.774 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.544 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 95.512 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 95.391 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.391 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.315 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 95.227 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 95.140 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 95.110 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 95.063 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 95.026 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 94.936 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 94.887 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 94.876 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 94.865 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 94.850 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.815 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 94.815 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 94.728 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.667 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 94.667 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 94.641 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.606 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 94.584 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.583 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max) | Continuous |
| 94.536 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 94.529 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 94.274 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 94.135 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.131 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.093 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.985 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 93.984 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 93.958 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 93.899 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 93.740 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 93.740 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 93.667 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 93.650 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 93.647 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 93.608 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 93.591 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 93.579 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 93.569 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 93.466 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| 93.465 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 93.396 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 93.109 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 93.004 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.916 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 92.775 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 92.745 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 92.744 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 92.594 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 92.539 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 92.460 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 92.384 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 92.372 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 92.234 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 91.987 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 91.805 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 91.609 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 91.571 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 91.524 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.493 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.224 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.123 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 90.935 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 90.882 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 90.812 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 90.736 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 90.592 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 90.454 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 90.384 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 90.331 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 90.327 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 90.213 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.818 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 89.765 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 89.673 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 89.571 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 89.509 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 89.318 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 89.266 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.224 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 89.099 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 89.040 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 88.872 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 88.827 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 88.664 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 88.583 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 88.450 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 88.348 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 88.287 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 88.272 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 88.248 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 87.829 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 87.784 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 87.660 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 87.593 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 87.560 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.484 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 87.480 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.409 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 87.031 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 86.782 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 86.620 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 86.451 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 86.095 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 85.869 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 85.504 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 85.399 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.164 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 85.071 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 85.071 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 85.062 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 84.721 | How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? | Continuous |
| 84.720 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 84.544 | When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels? | Continuous |
| 84.470 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 84.470 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 84.422 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 84.295 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 84.117 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 84.106 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 84.022 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 83.929 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 83.929 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 83.798 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | Binary |
| 83.765 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.764 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 83.568 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 83.568 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 83.443 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 83.439 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 83.209 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 83.204 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 83.204 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 83.189 | When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 83.178 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 83.013 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 83.011 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 82.992 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023? | Binary |
| 82.914 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 82.868 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 82.854 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 82.758 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 82.630 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 82.588 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 82.438 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 82.437 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 82.078 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 81.755 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 81.510 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 81.488 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 81.221 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 81.054 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 81.028 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 81.022 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.953 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 80.912 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 80.845 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 80.834 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 80.730 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.660 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 80.656 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 80.647 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 80.508 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 80.463 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 80.454 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 80.423 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 80.404 | What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 80.314 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 79.834 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 79.677 | What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 79.671 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 79.566 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 79.495 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 79.401 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 79.351 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 79.308 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 79.272 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 79.272 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 79.137 | When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million? | Continuous |
| 79.091 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 79.033 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 78.980 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 78.902 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 78.841 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 78.567 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 78.501 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 78.401 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 78.311 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 78.141 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 77.952 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 77.878 | By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors? | Continuous |
| 77.488 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.411 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 77.385 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 77.211 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 76.857 | What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 76.850 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 76.827 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 76.610 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 76.434 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 76.033 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 75.995 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 75.658 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | Binary |
| 75.440 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 75.284 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
| 75.234 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 73.866 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 73.792 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 73.778 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 73.472 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 73.401 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 73.307 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 73.288 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 73.147 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 73.067 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 73.021 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 73.008 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 72.981 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 72.972 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.421 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 72.401 | Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022? | Binary |
| 72.261 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 72.131 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 72.027 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 71.839 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 71.834 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 71.806 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
| 71.475 | What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022? | Continuous |
| 71.407 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 71.360 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 71.338 | When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less? | Continuous |
| 71.177 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 71.116 | Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 70.880 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 70.880 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 70.880 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 70.655 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 70.371 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 70.332 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 70.065 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 70.042 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 69.795 | By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 69.788 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 69.724 | How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021? | Continuous |
| 69.680 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.439 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 69.253 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 68.397 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max) | Continuous |
| 68.336 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 67.892 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 67.850 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 67.810 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.771 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 67.718 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 67.482 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 67.435 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 67.429 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 67.270 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 67.255 | Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? | Binary |
| 67.136 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 67.106 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 67.102 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.070 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 67.047 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 67.034 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 66.745 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 66.375 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 66.295 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 66.278 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 66.100 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 66.069 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 65.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 65.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 65.637 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 65.593 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 65.509 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 65.293 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 65.293 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 65.037 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 65.005 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 64.967 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 64.956 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 64.895 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 64.895 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 64.766 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 64.663 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 64.582 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 64.573 | Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? | Binary |
| 64.515 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
| 64.417 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
| 64.298 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 64.262 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 63.813 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 63.637 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 63.630 | How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023? | Continuous |
| 63.455 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 63.404 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union) | Binary |
| 63.324 | What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming? | Continuous |
| 63.284 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 63.284 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 63.153 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 63.011 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 62.946 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? | Continuous |
| 62.928 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 62.809 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 62.616 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 62.574 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 62.564 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 62.479 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 62.285 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 62.276 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 62.151 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 62.082 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 61.759 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 61.216 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 61.076 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 60.677 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 60.478 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 60.472 | What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022) | Continuous |
| 60.455 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 60.222 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 60.203 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 60.168 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
| 60.022 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 59.462 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 59.427 | What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 59.407 | What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 59.330 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 59.204 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 59.027 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 58.786 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 58.786 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 58.616 | When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? | Continuous |
| 58.573 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 58.441 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 58.319 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 58.211 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 57.980 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 57.940 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 57.933 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 57.743 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 57.577 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 57.212 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.203 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 57.167 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 57.148 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 56.898 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 56.703 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.524 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 56.456 | What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 56.395 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 56.241 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 56.240 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 56.205 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 56.191 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 55.723 | How many deaths from terrorism in 2020? | Continuous |
| 55.548 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 55.546 | How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? | Continuous |
| 55.525 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 55.499 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.052 | When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa? | Continuous |
| 54.734 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 54.594 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 53.921 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 53.914 | How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022? | Continuous |
| 53.667 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 53.515 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 53.224 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 53.125 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | Continuous |
| 52.786 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.721 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 52.662 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 52.516 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 52.283 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
| 52.141 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 51.881 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 51.821 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.673 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 51.603 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 51.584 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 51.106 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 50.941 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 50.766 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 50.730 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
| 50.574 | What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)? | Continuous |
| 49.753 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 49.700 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
| 49.589 | What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? | Continuous |
| 49.345 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 49.288 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation? | Continuous |
| 49.252 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 49.199 | What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 49.135 | What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 48.857 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 48.801 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 48.690 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 48.564 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 48.224 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 48.169 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 48.137 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 48.062 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max) | Continuous |
| 47.526 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 47.399 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 47.363 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 46.640 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 46.545 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 46.484 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 46.317 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 46.156 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 46.141 | How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia? | Continuous |
| 45.521 | What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.373 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
| 45.200 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 45.116 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 45.089 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 44.940 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 44.828 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 44.760 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 44.316 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 44.173 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 43.791 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 43.789 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 43.696 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 43.432 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 43.376 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| 42.626 | Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions? | Binary |
| 42.620 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 42.585 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 42.239 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 42.230 | When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| 42.145 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 42.113 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 42.093 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 42.076 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 41.991 | When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases? | Continuous |
| 41.247 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.220 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 40.942 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 40.812 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 40.562 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 40.482 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 40.403 | What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 40.390 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.328 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 40.263 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 40.186 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 39.493 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 39.184 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| 39.125 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
| 39.064 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
| 38.736 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 38.203 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 38.056 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| 38.041 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 37.606 | When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 37.602 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 37.567 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? | Continuous |
| 37.303 | How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year? | Continuous |
| 37.025 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 36.972 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 36.919 | What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report? | Continuous |
| 36.884 | When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) | Continuous |
| 36.679 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 36.424 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.229 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 36.184 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 35.993 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 35.910 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 35.877 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 35.809 | What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? | Continuous |
| 35.647 | How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 35.371 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 35.156 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 34.969 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 34.731 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 34.572 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.318 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 34.076 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 34.058 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 34.027 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 33.611 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 33.158 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? | Continuous |
| 33.148 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 33.119 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 33.118 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 32.977 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
| 32.921 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 32.838 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 32.558 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 32.456 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 32.429 | Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 32.424 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 32.310 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 32.056 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 31.867 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 31.562 | By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 31.200 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 31.065 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 30.888 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 29.705 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 29.701 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 29.617 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 29.385 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 29.212 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 29.077 | When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur? | Continuous |
| 28.992 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 28.612 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 28.381 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 27.433 | When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded? | Continuous |
| 27.239 | What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies? | Continuous |
| 27.201 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 27.142 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 26.841 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
| 26.828 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 26.710 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 26.553 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 26.499 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 26.174 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 25.921 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 24.619 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 24.567 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 24.191 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 23.566 | What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities? | Continuous |
| 23.419 | Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? | Binary |
| 23.319 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 22.992 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023) | Continuous |
| 22.228 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 21.878 | When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire? | Continuous |
| 21.700 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 21.348 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 21.080 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 20.389 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 19.555 | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.523 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 19.254 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 18.931 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.918 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 18.662 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.195 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 18.186 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 18.134 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 18.121 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.978 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 17.900 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 17.899 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 17.824 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 17.474 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 17.437 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 17.437 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.427 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 17.319 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| 17.281 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 17.177 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.828 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 16.344 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 16.051 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 15.963 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 15.906 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 15.862 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 15.704 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| 15.541 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.817 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? | Continuous |
| 14.712 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 14.651 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 14.494 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 14.457 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 14.448 | How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 14.286 | How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 13.184 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 13.069 | What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.842 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 12.687 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? | Continuous |
| 12.581 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.518 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 11.964 | How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022? | Continuous |
| 11.476 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 11.476 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 11.149 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 11.119 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.013 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 11.013 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 11.013 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 10.343 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 10.322 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 9.684 | [Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 9.581 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.439 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.079 | How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA? | Continuous |
| 8.602 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 8.433 | Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions? | Binary |
| 8.351 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 8.285 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 8.266 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 8.062 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 7.863 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| 7.299 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.299 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.299 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.299 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.241 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 7.184 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 7.183 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.128 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 7.007 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.960 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 6.788 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 6.770 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.990 | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| 5.853 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? | Continuous |
| 5.827 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| 5.737 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 5.695 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 5.670 | When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| 5.645 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| 5.605 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | Binary |
| 5.237 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 5.099 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.099 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 5.099 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.099 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.099 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.095 | When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted? | Continuous |
| 4.949 | Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? | Binary |
| 4.821 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 4.609 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.533 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 4.057 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 4.056 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| 4.056 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 3.994 | When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2? | Continuous |
| 3.638 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
| 3.542 | When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate? | Continuous |
| 3.515 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 3.325 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| 3.275 | When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land? | Continuous |
| 3.093 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 2.312 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 2.088 | In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? | Binary |
| 2.053 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 1.760 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 1.698 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.662 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.662 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 1.649 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang) | Binary |
| 1.299 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.265 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.245 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 1.236 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 1.187 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 0.235 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 0.124 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| -0.767 | When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism? | Continuous |
| -1.763 | How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| -1.836 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| -2.588 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| -2.683 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| -2.847 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
| -3.178 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -3.863 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -3.983 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
| -4.233 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| -4.317 | When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price? | Continuous |
| -4.539 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| -4.609 | Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023? | Binary |
| -5.085 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -5.436 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -5.598 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| -6.566 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| -6.789 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? | Continuous |
| -7.086 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 April 1) | Binary |
| -7.237 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| -7.341 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| -7.393 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -7.453 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | Continuous |
| -8.126 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -8.724 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| -8.764 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -8.878 | How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022? | Continuous |
| -9.015 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| -9.556 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -9.720 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| -9.851 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -10.171 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -10.191 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -10.497 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine) | Binary |
| -10.675 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -10.782 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -11.234 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| -11.639 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -11.829 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| -13.351 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| -13.818 | If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? | Continuous |
| -13.949 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022? | Continuous |
| -14.525 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| -15.019 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| -15.179 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -16.511 | How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021? | Continuous |
| -16.807 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| -17.203 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -18.957 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -19.454 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -19.920 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| -20.915 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -22.991 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -23.090 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? | Continuous |
| -23.215 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| -23.268 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| -23.418 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| -24.025 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -24.329 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -24.909 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -25.037 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| -25.443 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -25.452 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -25.460 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -26.388 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -27.839 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | Continuous |
| -28.462 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022? | Continuous |
| -28.491 | By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? | Continuous |
| -31.635 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| -32.773 | When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area? | Continuous |
| -32.791 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -34.168 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| -34.671 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -36.804 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| -38.096 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| -39.045 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| -40.332 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -40.548 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -40.782 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -41.197 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -43.550 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -45.394 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -46.297 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -46.949 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -47.094 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -48.842 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -51.516 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| -53.257 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -57.422 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -58.133 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -58.632 | Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023? | Binary |
| -59.508 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | Continuous |
| -61.032 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -63.215 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -63.264 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| -65.129 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| -65.739 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| -66.153 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| -66.335 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| -66.576 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -69.561 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -70.783 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India) | Binary |
| -71.440 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| -73.533 | What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -76.598 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| -78.225 | When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? | Continuous |
| -78.294 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -81.251 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -81.516 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -81.591 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -81.680 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -81.711 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| -90.293 | How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022? | Continuous |
| -95.664 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | Continuous |
| -98.369 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -103.107 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| -108.037 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| -110.162 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| -111.862 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -115.020 | What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -118.597 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -122.206 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -123.232 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | Binary |
| -133.924 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| -136.238 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel) | Binary |
| -138.440 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -149.994 | What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -152.921 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -159.014 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -168.094 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -173.286 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| -186.787 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -188.547 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -193.598 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -195.940 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -200.504 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -209.575 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -213.359 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -214.819 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -221.995 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -228.961 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -245.907 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -248.339 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -258.410 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -260.926 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| -266.594 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -316.326 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -377.761 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -430.105 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -506.217 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -512.949 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |