Hayes

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.16k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
161.513	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
144.037	What percent of Earth's marine area will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025)	Continuous
139.534	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
120.049	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
117.518	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
109.036	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
108.381	What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025)	Continuous
98.544	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
98.516	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
98.430	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
97.821	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
97.400	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
97.384	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
97.200	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
96.886	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
96.867	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
96.829	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
96.829	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
96.821	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
96.667	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
96.520	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
96.295	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
95.963	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
95.826	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
95.568	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
95.528	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
95.448	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
95.417	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
94.696	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
94.548	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
94.519	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
94.003	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
93.784	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
93.078	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
93.000	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
92.761	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
92.613	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
92.605	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
92.568	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.561	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
91.956	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
91.499	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
90.637	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
90.635	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
90.523	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
90.230	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
89.491	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
89.336	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
89.158	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
88.775	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
88.615	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
88.382	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
88.253	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
87.435	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
87.245	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
87.142	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
86.934	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
86.863	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
86.366	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
86.313	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
86.308	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
85.944	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
85.547	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
84.626	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
84.449	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
83.814	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
83.718	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
83.718	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
83.394	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
83.369	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
83.179	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
82.902	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
82.795	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
82.497	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
80.554	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
80.466	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
80.112	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
80.077	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
79.443	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
79.041	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
78.153	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
77.610	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
77.568	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
77.080	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
76.936	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
76.729	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
76.317	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
75.698	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
74.646	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
73.942	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
73.639	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
72.402	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
72.402	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
72.402	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
71.944	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
69.407	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
69.364	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
69.001	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
67.829	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
67.719	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
67.116	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
66.492	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
66.307	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
65.990	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
65.936	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
65.666	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
65.497	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
65.395	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
65.260	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
64.795	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
64.774	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
64.515	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
64.269	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
63.720	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
63.408	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
63.111	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
62.780	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
62.573	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
62.414	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
62.219	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
61.179	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
60.550	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
60.253	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
59.351	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
58.896	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
58.200	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
57.651	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
57.476	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
57.330	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
49.636	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
49.367	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
48.389	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
46.479	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
46.149	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
44.359	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
42.854	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
42.251	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
42.163	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
40.995	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
40.163	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
39.755	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
37.800	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
37.276	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
36.825	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
36.423	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
36.307	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
34.559	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
34.475	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
34.377	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
34.056	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
33.148	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
32.919	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
32.170	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
31.309	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
31.017	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
31.013	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
30.841	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
30.679	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
30.462	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
30.098	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
29.958	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
28.869	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
27.789	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
27.713	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
27.490	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
27.174	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
27.134	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
25.622	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
25.306	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
25.284	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
25.145	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
25.044	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
24.814	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
24.585	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
24.583	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
23.484	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
22.827	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
22.802	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
22.334	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
22.058	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
21.874	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
20.102	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
19.949	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
19.929	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
19.410	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
18.704	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
15.644	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
13.416	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
13.104	When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?	Continuous
12.184	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
11.956	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
11.577	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
11.224	When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?	Continuous
11.032	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
10.914	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
10.540	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
10.358	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
10.059	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
7.871	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.078	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
6.620	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
6.463	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
4.029	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
3.152	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
2.996	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
2.976	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
2.871	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
2.841	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
2.003	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
0.897	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
0.573	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
0.442	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.013	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
-	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-0.049	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-2.323	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
-2.403	What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025?	Continuous
-5.510	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-6.884	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-8.078	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-8.289	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-8.641	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-8.766	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
-8.852	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
-11.694	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-13.347	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-14.563	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
-15.177	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-17.477	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-18.207	What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release?	Continuous
-22.650	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
-25.027	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-26.487	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-27.134	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-29.180	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-29.686	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
-36.078	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-36.405	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-37.490	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-37.579	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-41.407	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-44.616	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
-53.601	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-55.589	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-71.611	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
-71.681	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-71.727	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-73.437	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-88.013	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-98.211	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-151.166	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
-151.436	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-177.037	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary