Grigfall

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7.627k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
123.536	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
122.758	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
120.425	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
115.101	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
112.274	Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined)	Continuous
110.103	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
109.097	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
99.764	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
98.697	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.697	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
97.517	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
95.848	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
95.586	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
95.541	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
95.475	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
95.303	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
94.186	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
94.089	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
94.049	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
93.913	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
93.824	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
92.582	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
92.572	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
92.375	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
92.331	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.312	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
91.608	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
91.578	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
91.113	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
91.040	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
90.931	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
90.770	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
89.790	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
89.404	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
88.215	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
87.523	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
87.393	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
86.867	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
86.375	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
86.153	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
86.142	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
85.905	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
85.619	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
84.787	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
84.590	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
83.791	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
83.371	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
82.785	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
82.710	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
80.291	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
79.953	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
77.900	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
77.642	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
77.560	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
77.304	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
76.680	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
76.528	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
76.347	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
76.323	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
75.831	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
75.713	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
74.954	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
74.269	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
74.190	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
69.384	COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19)	Continuous
69.034	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
67.862	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.805	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
67.780	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
67.670	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
67.596	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
67.385	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
67.337	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
66.693	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
65.294	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
65.256	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
65.088	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
63.296	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
63.041	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
61.904	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
61.818	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
61.059	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
61.059	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
59.798	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
59.735	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
59.726	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
59.397	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
58.475	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
58.403	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
58.390	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
58.281	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
57.513	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
56.572	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
55.592	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
55.443	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
55.209	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
53.374	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
52.072	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
51.949	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
50.485	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
49.724	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
49.339	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
48.642	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
48.572	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
48.056	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
47.976	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
47.818	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
46.708	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
46.260	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
46.183	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
44.869	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
44.227	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
44.106	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
43.694	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
43.302	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
43.188	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
43.120	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
42.843	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
42.096	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
40.855	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
39.902	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
39.884	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
39.281	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
37.780	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
37.443	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
35.578	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
35.562	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
34.975	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
33.710	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
33.666	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
33.516	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
32.941	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
30.935	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
29.967	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
28.549	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
27.501	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
26.407	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
21.467	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
20.389	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
20.389	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
20.389	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
20.389	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
20.389	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
20.389	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
20.307	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
20.126	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
19.179	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
18.907	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
18.578	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
18.222	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
17.078	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
16.831	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
16.301	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
15.745	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
15.137	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
14.779	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
13.709	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
13.236	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
11.683	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
11.083	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
10.837	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
10.798	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
10.367	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
9.072	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
8.157	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
6.946	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
5.311	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
2.596	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
2.166	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
1.845	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
1.808	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
0.540	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-0.207	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.261	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
-0.388	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-0.998	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
-2.869	When will the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus) no longer be in shortage in the US?	Continuous
-3.144	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-5.226	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-7.297	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
-7.762	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-8.694	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
-8.766	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-11.906	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-12.747	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-15.194	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-15.286	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-17.088	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
-20.016	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-21.351	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-22.448	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
-22.451	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
-26.170	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-27.945	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-28.262	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
-28.600	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-34.517	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-37.272	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-41.622	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-42.707	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-45.231	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-52.153	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-52.531	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-52.956	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-59.550	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-60.985	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-63.998	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
-68.802	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-81.493	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-84.596	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-90.006	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-99.413	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-117.450	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-128.669	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-137.172	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-142.297	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-157.835	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-174.686	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
-180.704	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous