AAAA

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.01k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
105.970	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
75.972	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
75.960	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
75.132	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
70.995	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
59.114	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
58.199	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
57.427	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
55.264	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
53.511	What will be the value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in December 2022?	Continuous
51.058	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
47.219	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
46.256	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
45.933	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
44.501	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
28.522	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
28.259	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
26.709	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.708	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.474	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
24.690	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
22.647	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
22.532	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
20.018	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
19.863	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2022-12-29)	Continuous
18.460	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
17.568	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
17.494	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
17.465	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
16.437	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
15.758	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
15.416	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
15.188	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
15.187	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
14.957	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
14.957	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
14.955	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
14.784	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
14.723	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
14.723	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
14.722	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
14.564	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
14.485	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
14.485	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
14.485	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
14.398	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
14.389	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
14.324	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Tom Emmer)	Binary
14.248	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
14.246	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
14.006	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
14.005	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
13.954	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
13.761	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
13.761	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
13.754	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
13.407	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
13.310	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
13.059	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Drew Ferguson)	Binary
12.758	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
12.721	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
12.720	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
12.687	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
12.480	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
12.418	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
12.394	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
12.240	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
12.064	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
11.957	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
11.948	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Jim Banks)	Binary
11.738	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
11.679	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
11.679	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
11.679	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
10.431	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
10.258	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
10.250	Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?	Binary
10.172	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
10.172	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
10.172	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
10.090	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
9.910	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
9.887	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
9.645	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
8.604	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
8.573	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
8.529	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
8.363	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
8.338	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
8.186	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
8.177	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
8.118	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
8.062	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
8.028	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
7.964	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
7.724	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
7.589	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
7.497	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
7.465	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
7.394	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
7.362	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
7.328	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
7.228	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
7.202	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
7.102	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
7.014	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
6.969	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
6.940	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
6.721	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
6.664	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
6.308	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
6.069	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
5.968	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
5.945	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
5.935	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
5.933	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
5.929	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
5.873	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
5.818	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
5.766	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
5.749	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
5.745	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
5.703	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
5.495	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
5.427	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
5.392	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
5.387	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
5.289	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
5.287	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
5.259	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
5.252	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
5.246	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
5.216	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
5.205	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
5.126	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
5.099	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
5.012	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
5.009	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
4.855	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
4.843	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
4.601	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
4.528	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
4.402	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
4.398	How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?	Continuous
4.225	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
4.166	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
4.145	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
4.120	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.044	[Short Fuse] What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for stepping down as head of Twitter?	Continuous
3.689	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
3.562	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
3.489	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
3.272	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
2.621	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
1.744	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
1.716	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
1.370	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
1.354	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
1.127	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
1.018	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
0.984	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
0.771	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
0.762	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
0.568	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
0.430	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
0.390	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
0.354	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
0.350	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
0.291	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
0.262	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
0.198	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
0.167	How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022?	Continuous
-	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
-	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
-	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
-0.426	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
-1.309	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-1.382	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
-2.307	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-2.789	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-6.271	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-6.926	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-13.658	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
-16.442	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
-28.349	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
-101.223	How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Saturday, December 24th (the day before Christmas), as reported by FlightAware?	Continuous
-200.548	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous