AAAA

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.522k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
82.677	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
82.517	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
77.453	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
61.176	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
60.778	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
60.778	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
58.328	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
56.694	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
56.339	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
48.477	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
48.477	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
47.332	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
47.091	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
45.553	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
45.461	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
45.049	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
44.703	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
44.600	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
44.566	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
41.926	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
41.817	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
39.968	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
39.599	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
39.452	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
39.252	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
39.009	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
37.117	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
36.954	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
36.529	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
35.659	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
35.349	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
34.807	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
33.310	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
32.225	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
31.580	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
30.729	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
29.998	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
29.968	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
29.762	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
29.762	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
29.762	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
29.165	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
28.800	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
28.093	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
27.268	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
26.775	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
25.974	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
24.323	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
23.917	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
23.917	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
23.698	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
23.615	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
23.615	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
22.285	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
22.249	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
22.229	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
22.229	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
22.229	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
22.229	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
22.229	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
20.182	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
20.103	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
19.934	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
19.581	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants)	Binary
19.518	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
19.492	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
19.140	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.910	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
18.207	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
17.033	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
17.033	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
16.920	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
16.842	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
16.688	How many people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
16.567	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
15.931	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
15.849	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.370	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
15.321	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
15.239	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
15.117	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2023-01-05)	Continuous
14.294	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024?	Continuous
14.075	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
13.655	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
13.099	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
13.098	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
13.098	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
13.098	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
13.098	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
13.098	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
13.098	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
13.098	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
13.098	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
13.098	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
13.098	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
13.098	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
13.097	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
13.097	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
13.097	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
13.096	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
13.090	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
13.090	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
13.090	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
13.090	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
13.089	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
13.087	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
13.040	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
12.990	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.958	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon)	Continuous
12.931	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan)	Continuous
12.919	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
12.919	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
12.919	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
12.919	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
12.918	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
12.918	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
12.918	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
12.574	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
12.547	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
12.403	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti)	Continuous
12.098	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
11.976	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
11.840	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
11.840	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
11.727	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
11.630	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
11.591	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
11.554	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots)	Binary
11.554	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
11.549	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan)	Continuous
11.532	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
11.522	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
11.436	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
11.400	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
11.398	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
11.397	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
11.390	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
11.276	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
11.249	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
11.223	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
11.217	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
11.216	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
11.125	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
11.122	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
11.117	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
11.101	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia)	Continuous
11.089	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
10.931	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
10.794	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
10.773	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.698	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
10.687	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
10.655	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
10.179	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2023-01-12)	Continuous
10.084	How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?	Continuous
10.036	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
9.790	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda)	Continuous
9.654	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
9.591	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
9.360	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
9.342	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
9.342	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
9.069	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka)	Continuous
9.029	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
8.889	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
8.856	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
8.822	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
8.435	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
8.045	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.714	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.668	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
7.668	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
7.577	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
7.572	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
7.559	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
7.524	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
7.397	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
7.395	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
7.395	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets)	Binary
7.394	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
7.320	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
7.317	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
7.191	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
6.908	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.858	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
6.466	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
6.407	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
6.399	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
6.346	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
6.151	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
6.040	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
6.013	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
5.922	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
5.896	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
5.757	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
5.588	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
5.411	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
5.184	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.873	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
4.620	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.614	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
4.614	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
4.614	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
4.614	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
4.614	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
4.614	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
4.613	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
4.613	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
4.613	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
4.476	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
4.406	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
4.406	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
4.382	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2023 questions)	Continuous
4.239	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.761	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
3.625	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
3.519	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
3.449	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
3.422	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
3.272	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.266	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
3.239	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
3.108	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
2.862	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.834	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
2.786	What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics?	Continuous
2.621	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
2.621	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
2.308	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
2.284	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
2.176	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
1.821	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
1.613	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
1.575	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
1.550	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
1.036	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2025 questions)	Continuous
1.010	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
0.747	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
0.728	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2032 questions)	Continuous
0.558	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
0.473	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2052 questions)	Continuous
0.467	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
0.197	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2122 questions)	Continuous
-	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.058	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-0.259	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
-0.713	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
-0.958	In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?	Continuous
-1.039	What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022?	Continuous
-4.442	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-5.646	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-6.664	What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
-6.749	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-7.287	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
-7.336	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
-7.678	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-8.611	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-8.831	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
-9.999	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-10.601	In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?	Continuous
-10.858	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
-11.451	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-13.134	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-14.827	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
-16.508	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
-17.125	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-17.211	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-26.739	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-27.661	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-30.680	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-31.479	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
-37.184	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-45.398	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-45.565	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
-53.999	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-58.516	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-60.236	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
-64.129	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
-88.436	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-92.017	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-98.158	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-107.182	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
-109.012	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-145.114	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2023-01-26)	Continuous
-182.497	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous